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algoa456
25 Comments
America Needs a Turnaround Plan
I look forward to you announcing in SA come April 09 that you have contributed extra tax - but please don't speak for me. I do want the government effectively wasting my money. We have seen only to clearly how addtional legislation and coercion (Barney Frank and Fannie Mae etc.) have screwed things up.
I have put a note in my calendar next May to enquire whether you have volunteered more tax than required.
Fear Goes Hand in Hand with Drama
The other way we would have more chance of it coming back.
Golden Arches Safer Than Uncle Sam?
Without credit businesses will not be able to function and begin to collapse. As business collapses and workers are out of work this will affect other business and so on. A vicious circle will ensue and all the smug "no bailout for the rich" guys will be standing in the soup kitchen queues like the rest of us.
Maybe these guys are on the wrong web site. Maybe they should be reading the "Workers International" or "International Socialism" where knowledge about how markets work is not uppermost in their minds.
Bush's Speech: Surprisingly Coherent
Fannie and Freddie became political instruments for providing housing loans to anybody who wanted them regardless of race color or creed or, more importantly, their ability to repay the loan. The NINJA loan - No Income, No Job loans was improbably born because we could not discriminate (that is, refuse a loan to anyone)
Some Housing Schadenfreude
Here is why Turner's latest book overstates the situation: Even at the peak of the housing boom here home buyers were never as extended as in the US; houses prices have not risen as much as in the 'hot' markets in the US.
The market with the most dramatic increase was Calgary which is also the headquarters of the Canadian oil boom. So house price increases there were fueled by the 'tar sands' boom rather than a general run up in housing. Calgary house prices have more to do with oil prices than a general housing malaise.
Also Canadian house price increases were the lowest in the Anglo-Saxon world: UK, US, Australia and NZ have all increased a lot more than Canada.
Also as far boomers downsizing is concerned the huge immigration boom Canada is experiencing (percentage wise the largest in the OECD - the country will have an Asian majority by 2034) should more than offset any downsizing effect.
Obama Is Bad for the Economy - Barron's
Then at his next meeting he could explain ti was for the common good. I am sure his shareholders would be happy.
The Economic Cost of the Military Industrial Complex
Any fool can point out that war is bad and that spending money on military might is a waste of money. And of course there is the pubertal reactions of dumb American government and so on. And blaming the previous generation. (The problem is that most Americans have grown in a time of peace and cannot conceive that things could be otherwise. Travel a bit you man to less stable parts of the world and consider than most of the world would be like that without Pax Americana. Before that there was pax Britannia)
What is the alternative - and before you answer consider how difficult it would be to do business and earn a decent living in a world without stability.
The pie chart is also misleading in that China has a much lower cost structure than the US and that is applicable to the military as much as manufacturing. China has a larger army - head count wise - than the US
12 Great Investment Strategies
Bonner is not even remotely an investment guru. He makes his money out of the plethora of newsletters he sells. Gilder is quite simply a fool - more in love with technology than whether it is viable from an investing point of view. Masterson more appropriately should be in a book on marketing 'guru's.
Some of the other pundits in the book have, of course, more credibility, but it occurred to me that Mauldin himself with his shaky choices of authors was, morphing into a great marketeer. Which is sad, but perhaps it does tell you there is more money in marketing than in investing.
Bangalore Blasts Threaten Indian Outsourcing
Given the scale of India I doubt very much that the recent bombings will have any effect on the Indian IT industry. Of course for a few days they'll be all over 'The Times of India' and The Hindu' newspapers, but then the events will fade into the background.
The fear will be more acute in Sillicon (sillycon) Valley where everyone fears everything: the water, the air, the food, the pesticides, global warming, the US government, traffic accidents, obesity, salt, sugar, and, of course, bombs.
In India people just smile and go on with their lives free of such neuroses. The many thousands of programmers and business process outsource workers will cheerfully arrive for work the next day whatever happens. The Indian managers will reassure Western companies it will be business as usual. And they'll be right.
Is the Equities Party Over?
It indeed may now be the end of civilization, but EWI has cried wolf so much we no longer believe them.
Having said that I do use technical indicators. I find they work well for relatively short time scales - as durations lengthen fundamental and macro analysis comes into their own.
High Likelihood of a Market Crash
A factor mentioned in passing by one or two postings, but not emphasized, is that the market is perhaps reflecting the growing concern that we will soon have a president named Obama with limited experience, a Chicago leftist agenda and a naive do-good worldview like Carter.
On the global scale gasoline in the US is still cheap at $4 a gallon. Have you traveled to Europe lately and seen the prices there? Oil is only one factor in the decline.
Illustrated Lessons from Financial Cycles and Trends
Sure the salient point is whether following Fisher's advice, assistance, insights or recommendations would be beneficial - that is, produce above average returns. Alas my understanding is that would not be the case.
Financial Fears Sweeping the Globe
Things are not good, but they are NOT the end of the world. And this being an election year the media is keen to talk down the economy as much as possible to get the Banana into the White House.
Think I am crazy - check LexisNexis: during Bush senior's tenure reports on homeless people skyrocketed reaching a crescendo just before the election. Soon as Clinton got in those stories went away.
This time they have something to build on so they are having a field day.
Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK
That aside, the Canadian economic situation is very regional. Ontario's manufacturing base is being hit severely by the strength of the CDN dollar. The car industry is in bad shape.
But out west with both oil (Alberta) and fertilizer (Saskatchewan) things are much rosier. Indeed right across the Western states things are much better (and there is oil coming on line on the Atlantic coast too).
Now as far as fiddling economic numbers - be assured that Canada has its own foibles. Stats Canada pushes things the other way, however, to show how poor everyone is, how many kids are starving and how the poor are getting poorer (not the case in fact) so that the conservative government is pushed in social hand outs.
Maybe that fiddle the data in the US - rest assured though the Canada (and I suspect Europe) also alters data. It is just that the objectives are different. Socialist do it differently.
How the Weak Dollar Impacts Earnings