Mafeking's Comments

Climategate: Climate Science, Or Pseudoscience?

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:37:01 -0500

Her's a useful question to ask the GW zealots:

1. The IPCC report reckons GW got going around the mid to late 1970s. Before that industrial production of CO2 was inadequate.

2. Glaciers around the world have been receding for about 150 years. For example the Athabasca glacier in the Canadian Rockies started to recede around 1854

What caused the glaciers to recede between 1850 (or so) and 1976/77 when the IPCC reckons CO2 originated planetary warm kicked in?

Crisis in Context: 'This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,' by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:17:36 -0500

Great article.

Alas this time it is indeed different. America is going to go bankrupt under the lunatic Dems spending the country into poverty to follow a leftist dream.

Arianna Huffington: New Media Outlets Must Prove Commitment to Truth

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:09:36 -0500

Interviewing AH about misinformation is like interviewing a frog on the temperature of the water. The frog cannot tell temperature; AH cannot see misinformation. She simply sees all facts and views that are not aligned with Hufpost's left wing bias as propaganda (try getting anything not far left of center published on the site).

The boring thing about Hufpost and AH is that they never surprise. All their thought comes from the same left wing place.

Niall Ferguson: Dollar Is Doomed, U.S. Empire Over

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:23:16 -0400

Ferguson, is of course, a wet as you mention, but that does not affect his horribly accurate message re America - empire or not.

You sir are in denial. And I don't mean a river in Africa.

On Oct 20 06:28 PM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Dr. Ferguson is a typical British wet and he belongs in the safe
> confines of Harvard although he apparently is infecting Annapolis
> as well.
>
> 1) America isn't an "Empire." Thus, we don't suffer as we have
> to pull back from our "global committments" and get tired of doing
> the defense work of the Japanese and the Europeans.
>
> 2) We will emerge from the Carter Administration II also known as
> our normal dose of Democratic malaise.
>
> 3) The Chinese are a fine and creative people, but aircraft carriers
> and nuclear submarines cost lots of money. We'll see how their infrastructure
> spending holds out as they attempt to become a regional power.

>
> 4) The Germans never were able to become a naval power even though
> the Bismarck was a marvel as it sank under the waves. The German
> U-Boat was a menace to shipping, but there were only so many of those
> they could produce before they too were at the bottom of the ocean.
>
>
> 5) All Americans know not to trust the word of anyone named "Niall,"
> again, see earlier comment on the British wet.

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:23:24 -0400

Actually there is no such language as 'Chinese'. Does Rogers mean Mandarin or Cantonese . Mandarin is most widely spoken, but Cantonese is most common in Southern China and HK.

Such a blunder seems strange from people who purport to be experts on China.

Dent Tactical ETF Will Likely Have Trouble Gathering Assets

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:55:44 -0400

Dent is, in fact, an excellent source of prediction regarding the stock market.

Just assume the opposite of what he predicts. So far that strategy has been 100% correct.

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 13:09:54 -0400

I am a well known coin toss expert that uses a proprietary coin toss methodology: heads the market goes up; tails the market goes down.

I tossed the coin for the coming week and the coin came up heads. Obviously that is rubbish so I kept tossing. On the fourth attempt the coin came up tails.

I declare that my methodology (which is close to the ARMS approach of evidence based analysis) suggests the market will go down this coming week.

Please note: the tossing method described in this posting should not be confused with simple coin tossing using a hand. All coin tosses were done using the proprietary Mafeking Tossometer that removes human 'thumb' bias.

Ben Stein, Predatory Bait-and-Switch Merchant

Sat, 18 Jul 2009 14:20:43 -0400

Wow certainly a hit job on Stein with comments to match. I see free enterprise is only free if people follow Felix's definition of acceptability

I'll be sure to check with Mr Salmon before I embark on anything that smacks of commercialism in the future.

So let me see all the spiteful posters: would you do the ad for $100 - probably not, but if I upped the ante a bit - say $10 million - would you then reconsider? Or better still $100 million do I hear some of the sanctimonious wavering....... perhaps even the upright poster who is -finally- losing respect for the NY Times because Ben is still associated with them. Are you serious?

Good God man, have you not heard of caveat emptor? Let Stein shill for this shaky outfit - that is his prerogative - and move on to more important things.

South Africa ETF - Nowhere to Go but Up?

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 17:53:22 -0400

In 2010 the Football (soccer) World Cup will be played in South Africa. The country will come under intense world scrutiny and the SA's 'animal spirits' will be buoyed - the first African country to host the World Cup.

So I can certainly see a short term opportunity for EZA, but post the World Cup there is going to be quite an economic let down. Currently many people are employed to refurbish existing stadiums and create other facilities and the government is spending whatever it takes to get these projects completed before the kick off.

But then employment will go up and it is not certain whether Pravin Gordhan is up to the finance minister job since he is relatively new in the position.

I would not hold EZA after March 2010.

Crocs (CROX) on their last legs: "The company's toast. They're zombie-ish. They're dead and they don't know it."

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:26:30 -0400

My God, this is a blow - I wear nothing but Crocs. I have multiple pairs: Yellow for indoors with socks, Orange for indoors without socks, Blue for the garden and the Gray pair for going out.

You have put me off my trading. What a terrible shock.

Book Review: Hedge Funds (An Analytic Perspective)

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:40:18 -0400

Remember the old saying "Bullshit baffles brains". It may be applicable here.

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:34:36 -0400

Yup, this time its different.

Religious Muslims Now Have an ETF to Call Their Own

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:48:36 -0400

Investment tips from Allah - they work every time.

Dylan Ratigan's Morning Meeting debut (video, 6 min.). First take: good guests, interesting discussion.

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:37:38 -0400

Never mind the noisy Ratigan who has a built in megaphone and seems unable to shut up and let his guests speak. What about Spitzer and the reconstitution of his public personae?

What next? Can we look for a guest appearance by Sandford.

Book Review: Jeff Immelt and the New GE Way, by David Magee

Sat, 02 May 2009 14:26:35 -0400

If Immelt is judged on GE performance alone he has done a mediocre job. An Ivy leaguer promoted for his background and pedigree rather than his street smarts.

And street smarts may be the missing ingredient. Apparently oblivious to criticism and concerns from share holders, Immelt plows on with his singular poor performance communicating poorly or not at all.

I presume Mason has attended a share holder meeting. I have, and they have been, until recently, rather high handed affairs where mere shareholders are permitted to be at the feet of the glittering GE executive team. But recent meeting have been more rowdy as it has become all too apparent that Immelt has feet of clay. And share holders have voiced there extreme dissatisfaction.

The book may or may not be a good read (the article left me equivocal), but on its subject, Jeffrey Immelt, there is no doubt: He has to go to restore the credibility of a once great company.

Are Magazines Doomed Too?

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:28:59 -0400

Mr Jarvis, I wonder what you think of the Zinio model where you get the magazine electronically. Distribution costs are minimal and let's face it most people who read magazines have broadband.

I subscribe to a few magazines via Zinio one of which has recently gone all digital - PC Magazine for example.

It costs less and because it is a special interest magazine I am quite happy to print out the pages I need. Mostly I read it online. The Economist is also available.

Thing is I am not interested in a community, or exchanging views with other readers. I simply want the info.

Cleantech Companies Will Stimulate Recovery

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:05:05 -0400

An overly rosy view of wind power for sure. Much of the wind power industry, not only in the US, but around the world relies heavily on government subsidies for viability.

Wind power is perhaps the least viable of all the alternate technologies because it is unpredictable and so power stations capable of handling the total load regardless of wind power need to be built.

Consider a situation where 10% of an area's power is wind generated. If there is no wind the local power grid has to handle the deficit or power has to be purchased from elsewhere. It works in Europe because they have the capacity via nuclear power stations to cover shortfalls.

Oracle Acquisition of Sun Makes Perfect Sense

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:20:25 -0400

Sun has three broad business areas: Hardware - servers and chips, software - Java and associated frameworks and Services - a reasonable professional services outfit.

Oracle can improve the efficiency and profitability of the Sun services organization and move their (Oracles) more aggressive and costly professional services people into that space. There is money to be made in this area.

But the other two areas are more problematic.

In hardware Sun is losing market share to the increasing power of the mulit-processor Intel and AMD chip sets. Certainly the Sun Sparc and n-way architecture has greater performance, but this performance is only required in very demanding areas. Oracle has bought a declining business in this area that is likely to go head to head with HP's servers (not cooperate with HP). I am not sure Gardner is correct in his assessment here.

Sun's software offerings are another story. Sun invented (Gosling, et. al.) Java, Java libraries and Java frameworks that created almost a revolution in the software industry by improving software portability and robustness. But has never been able to truly monetize the Java story. I suspect the Sun software unit is not profitable. The forces of Open Source Java have just been too strong.

So Sun's software business is also a story of declining profits.

In the final analysis I think Ellison has bought Sun for their customer base and the synergies and penetration that Oracle can achieve into the Sun accounts and customers. Oracle is not going to make a lot of profit from Sun's hardware and software.

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:31:27 -0400

You speak as if you are a buy and hold artist. If so, probably not worth you reading this site. If you were not buy and hold then I presume you are long with appropriate trailing stops.

I am long QLD and it has done pretty well, but it now looks like we are reverting to the downtrend and I'll probably be stopped out.

Will Intel's New Processor Be a Game-Changer?

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:25:57 -0400

The performance of the i7 quad processors overlap those of the more familiar Core 2 Quad with performance only better at the high end of the Nehalem range.

The problem is the software. It is very difficult to write software that takes advantage of multiple processors on a single chip. Very little truly multi-threaded software currently exists that can benefit from the newer chips.

As it happens I am writing this on a desktop with an i7 processor - just another good performance desktop.

Will the Nehalem series have good performance: yes.

Will it be a game changer: hello no. Game changes await the smart researchers who can simplify multi-process multi-threaded software.

'U.S. Banking System Is Effectively Insolvent' - Soros

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:56:43 -0400

Always examine motives: the human palindrome is heavily short many areas of the economy - as he said elsewhere he is having a very profitable crisis.

Whether Soros is accurate in his pronouncements or not is a moot point and time will tell; but one thing is beyond dispute. He gains from the banks going down.

As my Mexican colleague would say, "ees a bad man".

PIMCO High Income Fund: Look to Swap Out

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:48:35 -0400

As someone else has posted please tell me about the amazingly safe 24% yield you mentioned. Are you putting together another Ponzi scheme?

On Jan 23 11:26 AM Aalan wrote:

> While the fund is absurdly overbought now, at the time of the interview
> (Jan 2) it was trading around 6.00, and had paid 1.463 in dividends,
> for a yield of 24%. The delay in publication made Gross's advice
> untimely. He may be a scoundrel, but he's not a liar.
>
> Of course, anyone who owns the fund now would do well to sell it
> for the premium. There are, amazingly, safer ways to get 24% yields!

Geithner: A Fool with a Plan? And Is That a Bad Thing?

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 08:57:27 -0400

My grandmother - though not as well known as Boone Pickens - also had a saying that is pertinent in these times:

"A fool and his money are soon parted"

Obama Makes Sense

Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:10:26 -0400

Obama is a Pinocchio politician. He has figured out that few verify what he says - so he says one thing and does another.

Tim, I'd be more impressed with your article if it made judgments on Obama's deeds rather than his words. Tim you may be gullible!

By the way Tim I have a no fail investment to sell you. If you send me $10,000 I guarantee that you will be provided with a sure fire investment that returns 431% in two (2) weeks. (You must hurry. The offer won't last.)

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 08:51:56 -0400

Perhaps the funniest moment of the whole financial debacle so far was Barney Frank's demand that those responsible for the mess should be charged and jailed.

The Zweig Method: 10 Growth Investments for a Tough Market

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:06:35 -0400

Problem is these 'fundamental analysis' schemes simply don't work in a ferocious bear market. All the clever Ben Graham derivatives approaches lose money. Zweig's approach is great in an up or flat market, but pretty useless now (though 2 out of 3 ain't bad).

Maybe not Zweig's approach, but many of these stock filtering schemes would have coughed up such illustrious stocks as GE.

For all the cynicism about technical analysis a simple 50 week moving average or 200 day moving average would have got you out of the market almost a year ago.

Has the U.S. Layoff Trend Turned?

Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:11:25 -0400

One month's improvement does not a recovery make!

How Long Before the Dollar Fails?

Sat, 07 Mar 2009 19:28:00 -0500

Just like a stopped clock paco will eventually be correct. The question, Paco, is exactly when will the dollar start to decline.

I think when the markets turn around in a few years and the fear premium subsides, but hey, my view is as speculative as yours.

Why the U.S. Dollar Is Vulnerable to Decline Now

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 21:02:45 -0500

Inthe short term - 1 or 2 years out - it is in no one's interest to have a low dollar. Consider a low dollar:

1. makes Chinese and Japanese goods more expensive

2. devalues China's dollar holdings

3. makes US exports (however diminished) more attractive to countries that would prefer not to import goods at the moment

To Create Jobs Quickly, Capitalize Small Business Lenders

Sat, 28 Feb 2009 02:42:59 -0500

Given the alas only anecdotal evidence for a bottoming from Mr Sunshine I thought you may be interested in some lyrics from Donovan's Sunshine Superman.....somehow it fits the situation

Sunshine came softly through my a-window today
Could've tripped out easy a-but I've a-changed my ways
It'll take time, I know it but in a while
You're gonna be mine, I know it, we'll do it in style
'Cause I made my mind up you're going to be mine

I'll tell you right now
Any trick in the book now, baby, all that I can find
Everybody's hustlin' just to have a little scene
When I say we'll be cool I think that you know what I mean
We stood on a beach at sunset, do you remember when?
I know a beach where, baby, a-it never ends
When you've made your mind up forever to be mine