Mafeking

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32 Comments

    • Sat Jul 26th 16:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bangalore Blasts Threaten Indian Outsourcing
      I am not an Indian, but travel to Bangalore regularly. I work in the software sector. IT is certainly not the lifeblood of India, but is does have increasing importance as an important export.

      Given the scale of India I doubt very much that the recent bombings will have any effect on the Indian IT industry. Of course for a few days they'll be all over 'The Times of India' and The Hindu' newspapers, but then the events will fade into the background.

      The fear will be more acute in Sillicon (sillycon) Valley where everyone fears everything: the water, the air, the food, the pesticides, global warming, the US government, traffic accidents, obesity, salt, sugar, and, of course, bombs.

      In India people just smile and go on with their lives free of such neuroses. The many thousands of programmers and business process outsource workers will cheerfully arrive for work the next day whatever happens. The Indian managers will reassure Western companies it will be business as usual. And they'll be right.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 23:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Equities Party Over?
      The problem with EWI is that it functions on the stopped clock principle that is right twice a day. They have been calling for the mother of all collapses since the mid 1990s. Missing the run up in tech and other great opportunities.

      It indeed may now be the end of civilization, but EWI has cried wolf so much we no longer believe them.

      Having said that I do use technical indicators. I find they work well for relatively short time scales - as durations lengthen fundamental and macro analysis comes into their own.
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    • Mon Jun 23rd 22:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High Likelihood of a Market Crash
      Obama - right face, right name, right experience for the coming American Obama Republic - sorry I meant American Banana Republic. This is how the US goes down, not with a bang but an Obama.

      A factor mentioned in passing by one or two postings, but not emphasized, is that the market is perhaps reflecting the growing concern that we will soon have a president named Obama with limited experience, a Chicago leftist agenda and a naive do-good worldview like Carter.

      On the global scale gasoline in the US is still cheap at $4 a gallon. Have you traveled to Europe lately and seen the prices there? Oil is only one factor in the decline.
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Illustrated Lessons from Financial Cycles and Trends
      All the complaining about Fisher - surely this is just noise, as is the quasi conspiracy theories that Fisher distributes information after the event to help him enrich himself..

      Sure the salient point is whether following Fisher's advice, assistance, insights or recommendations would be beneficial - that is, produce above average returns. Alas my understanding is that would not be the case.
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    • Sat Jun 21st 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Fears Sweeping the Globe
      Sometime over the next month Time magazine will feature the coming melt down on its cover. So will the Economist. That will mark the end of the crisis and the start of the next bull market.

      Things are not good, but they are NOT the end of the world. And this being an election year the media is keen to talk down the economy as much as possible to get the Banana into the White House.

      Think I am crazy - check LexisNexis: during Bush senior's tenure reports on homeless people skyrocketed reaching a crescendo just before the election. Soon as Clinton got in those stories went away.

      This time they have something to build on so they are having a field day.
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    • Fri May 30th 21:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK
      Methinks you guys are a little disconnected from the Canadian situation - I write from Toronto. Firstly, you do know that Canada is a much more socialist state than the US. Top tax rates start kicking in at $60K and at $100k they are 48%.

      That aside, the Canadian economic situation is very regional. Ontario's manufacturing base is being hit severely by the strength of the CDN dollar. The car industry is in bad shape.

      But out west with both oil (Alberta) and fertilizer (Saskatchewan) things are much rosier. Indeed right across the Western states things are much better (and there is oil coming on line on the Atlantic coast too).

      Now as far as fiddling economic numbers - be assured that Canada has its own foibles. Stats Canada pushes things the other way, however, to show how poor everyone is, how many kids are starving and how the poor are getting poorer (not the case in fact) so that the conservative government is pushed in social hand outs.

      Maybe that fiddle the data in the US - rest assured though the Canada (and I suspect Europe) also alters data. It is just that the objectives are different. Socialist do it differently.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 16:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How the Weak Dollar Impacts Earnings
      The same phenomenon should help the stock market. US stocks are the cheapest they have been in quite a while in non Dollar currencies.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Is Brilliant: An Interview with World Bank's Managing Director
      I worked in Africa for many years and I learnt that one should not confuse verbal ability and eloquence with real ability - particularly delivery ability. In other words this woman may have the 'gift of the gab', but the sycophantic article does not even begin to look into whether she has been able to deliver any value.

      Understand that many appointments in the WB are to do with ethnic and gender equity rather than competence. (I know, I've been there.)

      One of the great failings of many Americans is that they are incapable of judging the competence or otherwise of non-Americans. And are frequently suckered so desperate are they to show they are not racists.

      Now, of course, many people reading this are already jumping up and down shouting racist, racist! So let me add that I have no evidence that the new WB Managing Director is incompetent. She may be one of the best there is. We just have no evidence. Certainly the article provided none.

      As a peculiar aside I note interesting parallels with a certain junior senator from Illinois. He also has the 'gift of the gab'. One hopes here too he has more capabilities that just eloquence.
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    • Sat Apr 12th 14:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft's Windows Is a Glacier That Won't Melt Fast
      Pricci,
      this is an investment site not a techie chat room so I apologize - but I just want to set the record straight. Macs have problems running Windows apps that use sockets. Unfortunately it does not work properly.

      More to the point MSFT is still pretty profitable and it is dangerous to succumb to the wishful thinking of the Windows haters that MSFT is going away anytime soon.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 11th 18:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft's Windows Is a Glacier That Won't Melt Fast
      Thanks for the sensible article - what the Gartner hysteria fails to mention is that whether you like it or not there is scant alternative to WIndows.

      The many flavors of Linux despite the best efforts of the open source community are still difficult to install and use. One area in particular where Windows outshines Linux is in WiFi connectivity. In this area Linux sucks. The open source hobbyists simply cannot seem to get wireless connectivity right.

      Of course the Apple's operating system is great and of course it is more stylish than a WIndows computer and I would love to change over, but the trading programs and tools I use are exclusively Windows based. And that issue is in every domain. People use Windows not because of WIndows, but because of the range of WIndows applications. It is trendy to knock MSFT.

      Then MSFT come out and beat the street.

      Ho hum, I guess the highly paid Gartner analysts create he frisson of excitement to earn their highly paid keep.
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    • Tue Apr 8th 22:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Greenspan Defense
      Greenspan's defence: "The devil made me do it".
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 4th 13:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Payrolls Drop - And You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet
      It always surprises me how naive pundits are regarding the power of the president to effect economic reality. It is dubya this and the &*(^ Bush that when in actual fact we would be in this place even if Kerry or Obooma was in power.

      It is the sub-prime crisis which came about when Clinton put pressure on financial organizations to come up with creative ways of increasing home ownership amongst the poor. Did anyone anticipate this - no! although Bill Gross began calling it early. Clinton was being sensible in what he proposed. It is not his fault either. (Although.... 'The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions")

      My only question to Ms Lien is whether this is a classic recession or is something else what with China funding American excesses and the media helping by talking down the economy to get a Dem elected and is the improvement in stock prices over the last while a sucker's rally or does the market know something
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    • Thu Apr 3rd 15:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More Products Should Be Regulated - Soros
      The human palindrome never met a regulation he did not like - after he made his billions, however.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 02:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Weak Dollar is Bad For America - and ETFs
      The article speaks as if the weak dollar is a permanent fixture. The dollar fluctuates - in 1996 when I moved to America from NZ I did very well on the exchange rate because the NZ (and Oz) dollar was flying high. The US dollar was at record lows (for then).

      Then around 2000 the dollar strengthened and indeed there were calls of doom and gloom because of the (relatively) strong dollar.

      A number of factors including US/Bush's unpopularity and the internal machinations of the Fed have helped push the dollar down this time round. I am betting that 5 years from now things will be different and I will have made good money on my bet as the dollar rebounds.

      Many writers are thirty somethings. The problem with being a thirty something is that they have not seen it before and don't have a long view.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 21st 22:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF as Loonie Falls Below Dollar
      Interesting - I am a Canadian who is betting the other way - estimates in Canada are that the 'natural' level is CDN$1 around $0.85

      The US dollar fluctuates through a 10 to 15 year cycle. Extreme collapse scenarios aside for those outside the US starting to buy into US based ETFs with a 5+ year horizon could end very well.
      View article »
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