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monfrere

monfrere
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  • Facebook -8.4% AH on revenue, spending guidance [View news story]
    :-)
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Preparing For An Inversion? [View article]
    What a very simple calculation to find the number of US users. I'm always a bit suspect of things that FB reports because they talk about people signing on once per day or once per month, but not the number of minutes. The talk about users, and ARPU globally, but not users per region as you point out. They hide the impressions drops each quarter and don't just report on minutes spent on facebook by age group to counter the fleeing young people arguments.

    This could simply be them being cautious with what they share (see what I did there?) or it could be them trying to show themselves in a more positive light than is realistic.

    I suppose time will tell, but as long as they keep killing it on raising the average price of an ad, I dont see why they dont just focus on that. If they triple prices, they triple revenue, simple as that.
    Aug 13, 2014. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook beats by $0.10, beats on revenue [View news story]
    I lose. Good game guys. Congrats :-)

    I'm hanging it up on Facebook. This was always the quarter I was sure would be the one. Unless there is something ridiculous under the covers, it's over.

    Enjoy my money!
    Jul 23, 2014. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Aside, Why You Should Be Long Facebook [View article]
    The point I'm making is that the money has already followed and has assumed that they will get the perspective right. You can't price in the fact that it's going to be everywhere and then when it is everywhere expect the price to go up. That's what "pricing in" means.
    Jul 15, 2014. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Aside, Why You Should Be Long Facebook [View article]
    Well, if in 20 years it gets to where MSFT is now, that's almost 75% upside without dilution considering FB is already valued at nearly 200B.
    Jul 12, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook ad partner reports strong Q2 click rates, ad prices [View news story]
    Sounds like you are a smart technical investor. Good luck to you.
    Jul 10, 2014. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Step On Google's Toes [View article]
    Tomal,

    I believe that FB is more overvalued than the general market and therefore will suffer more than the general market when a correction hits. It's the highest risk investment there is and therefore captures a lot of gamblers looking for another big pop in the price before the crash. Retail investors that think they are "investing" in this stock don't realize that the pros are only buying in the hope of short term moves upward. It's a 5 year run. They arent betting against the trend.
    Jul 10, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Step On Google's Toes [View article]
    when the market is out looking for something to buy, they will find it. If you think that will last forever, keep buying. Personally, I think that the "there's another stock even crazier out there" argument is weak. Also, Amazon does 80B of revenue for a mostly US business. FB does 1/10 that for a business that is already worldwide and already has almost the entire world as members.
    Jul 9, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook ad partner reports strong Q2 click rates, ad prices [View news story]
    Sometimes that's right, but sometimes it dips from 74 to 70 and buying on that dip will cost you money on the way to 55. If you get it at the bottom and then it goes to 65, that's great. If you keep buying on every dip though, you might get burned.
    Jul 9, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook ad partner reports strong Q2 click rates, ad prices [View news story]
    They didnt fall last quarter based on their numbers, they fell based on their forecast. The numbers are the easy thing to report so it gets the headlines, but the conversation about the future is much more important.

    On the call, they said the following would not offer material growth any time soon: acquisitions, video, and newsfeed ads (due to comps with newsfeed ads).

    That's why it fell. If and when that manifests, it will be very bad for the stock price. I've been saying since mid Q4 of last year that Q2 of this year is going to be the first place the real problems show up. I might be wrong. Only a few weeks to find out.
    Jul 9, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Step On Google's Toes [View article]
    Yeah, I mean, who wouldnt pay $600B for a company that does 4B in profit? Maybe they'll grow their profit 500% per year (seems reasonable) and then only be trading at 6x.
    Jul 9, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Step On Google's Toes [View article]
    Always buy at the bottom and sell at the top do you Magarv? That's a pretty lucky coincidence for you to get in exactly at the bottom. I assume you also sold all your shares at 72, only to buy 3x as many at 55.

    I dont see anything wrong with youtube being a them or facebook being a they. Do you think that the website makes it own decisions in a sentient way? There are people behind those decisions, it's not magic.
    Jul 9, 2014. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Aside, Why You Should Be Long Facebook [View article]
    Hi Zendro,

    What older investors understand is that that is already assumed in the stock price. Not just a little growth, an obscene amount of growth. They currently make about 4B in profit and have spent well over 20B in acquisitions that dont make money yet. That means that they are losing over 16B these last 12 months. They are valued at nearly $200B. If I told you that you had to give me $200 and I would give you back $4 per year (or maybe you'd have to give me another $16) how would you feel about that? You'd have to assume that it's not going to stay at $4, but that its going to start paying you at least $20 or $30 a year right? Same for Facebook.
    Jul 9, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Step On Google's Toes [View article]
    Wow, a new low for bad articles.

    The important difference is that youtube shares revenue which gets them better content. FB doesnt pay you for getting a lot of likes and until they do, the premise of them competing is absurd.
    Jul 8, 2014. 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Aside, Why You Should Be Long Facebook [View article]
    Why is this article being published now? it was clearly written a very long time ago. I dont think the stock was in the 20's last month...
    Jul 7, 2014. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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