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beandog

beandog
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  • Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
    Tesla bashing is not going to stop the price from going higher, nor will it make your AXPW go higher. http://bit.ly/WwW0ow
    Feb 15, 2013. 11:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Juiciest Shorts Of All Time? [View article]
    AMZN was the juiciest short since the day they went ipo!!!!!

    How did that play out for the bears?
    Sep 16, 2012. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Confessions Of An EV Pioneer Turned Heretic [View article]
    10 miles per charge to Tesla 250-300 miles per charge. That's 25 to 30 times improvement. That is not no improvement as you seem to suggest. Also, considering inflation and 25-30 times improvement, the electric Tesla may actually be cheaper than the electric tin can of your era.
    May 3, 2012. 02:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Elon Musk Is A Part-Time CEO [View article]
    Why would it matter whether he focuses on just Tesla or all three companies? According to you, Tesla is destined to fail because electric cars just won't work because batteries are expensive and resources are constrained.
    May 1, 2012. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years [View article]
    Petersen,

    Please mend your ways and reanalyze your assumptions before you get all these EV bears shocked by awe as the green energy revolution takes center stage.
    Mar 26, 2012. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years [View article]
    Petersen,

    You don't need me to post my math on why electric vehicle charged with coal is still cheaper and cleaner than ICE vehicle, do ya?
    Mar 26, 2012. 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years [View article]
    To say it another way, a bear analysis of the situation is beyond hopeless when there is insatiable public demand for a product. Don't stand in front of the freight train.
    Mar 26, 2012. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years [View article]
    When the public has an insatiable demand for a product, don't stand in front of the freight train. A Tesla short is beyond hopeless at this point.
    Mar 26, 2012. 10:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years [View article]
    Still short the stock, brother John?

    Nice timing this time.
    Mar 26, 2012. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla The Next Ford? [View article]
    Faulkner,

    EVs will always be cheaper than ICE cars.

    Tesla Model S is actually comparable to the BMW 5 or 7 Series in terms of style and performance. Note previously I compared ownership cost of a Model S versus a BMW 3 Series (even though the Model S is actually comparable to BMW 5 or 7 Series). So I definitely gave the BMW some much needed help. But my simple cost analysis makes ownership of Model S almost equivalent to a Ford Taurus, and I think that's why the company has alluded to as well.

    Maintenance and repair costs are actually very expensive for a BMW, and I didn't include them in the total cost calculations. Here's Edmunds estimates (after the 3rd year): http://edmu.in/oyG3rL

    As you can see, on the 4th year, they have the costs at around $3000 and on the 5th year they have the cost at $4200. Seems like repair and maintenance increase quite a bit per year, after the 3rd year. That could easily add over $30,000 for a 10 year period. To say I gave the BMW a huge break in the cost column is and understatement!

    Let's see what happens had I compared the model S to a BMW 528. The cost of the car is at least $45,000. That would've added another $11,000 to my cost analysis for the BMW column. Maintenance and repair costs is $3000 for the 4th year and $4500 for the 5th year. http://edmu.in/qD3VOb Again, that adds over $30,000 for a 10 year period.

    The BMW is no match for the Model S.

    Edmunds.com even called the Tesla Model S a game changer. http://edmu.in/oXDxaR

    I recalculated the maintenance/repair costs that Edmunds gives. For a 10 year period, the total cost of maintence/repair is actually at least $40,000 (versus $30,000 i noted above).

    Comparing cost of Tesla Model S versus BMW 328:

    It costs about $4 to recharge and run the Tesla for 300 miles ($2 for 150 miles). A full tank of gasoline runs about 250-300 miles. So the energy cost comparison is $4 for Tesla and $50 for gasoline car. I generally fill my current gasoline car about 6 times a month. That's $300 per month, $3600 per year, $36000 for 10 years. That's $72,000 for 20 years.


    -BMW 328: $34,000

    -gas for 10 years: $36,000 (for 20 years: $72,000)

    - maintenance/repair: $40,000 (10 years), $80,000 (20 years)


    ----------------------

    <<Total = $110,000 for 10 years, $186,000 for 20 years ownership


    Tesla Model S:

    - cost: $50,000 ($57,000 minus $7,000 rebate) --- this model runs 160 miles per charge

    - electricity for 10 years: no more than $3,000. 20 yrs would cost $6,000

    - repair/maintenance: $1000* per year (I feel sorry for the BMW so let's put a number here, though reality is less than this), $12,000 (10 years), $24,000 (20 years)

    - quick battery charger for home: $2,000 . $4,000 if replacement after 10 years

    - extra battery: $12,000 is bought up front. Note that the latest Panasonic batteries can last 150,000 miles.
    ----------------------...

    <<Total for Tesla Model S: $67,000 (10 years), $96,000 (for 20 years ownership)


    Again, math doesn't take in consideration of the humongous cost of carbon emissions from gasoline cars.

    This is just the beginning for electric cars. The economics make sense.
    Mar 18, 2012. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla The Next Ford? [View article]
    Yes you will save money. A LOT of money.
    Mar 18, 2012. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Investors Should Be Worried [View article]
    Ryan,

    Resale of Tesla cars will be more valuable than their counterparts. The depreciating value of ICE cars are greater due to many parts of the engine that could have broken down. All one has to do with Tesla cars is to replace the battery pack (if need to) for $12,000, which is worth about 4 years of gasoline....and you essentially have a new Tesla car.
    Mar 12, 2012. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Investors Should Be Worried [View article]
    Resale of Tesla cars will be more valuable than their counterparts. The depreciating value of ICE cars are greater due to many parts of the engine that could have broken down. All one has to do with Tesla cars is to replace the battery pack (if need to) for $12,000, which is worth about 4 years of gasoline....and you essentially have a new Tesla car.
    Mar 12, 2012. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Fiasco Shows 'It's Never The Event, It's The Cover-Up' [View article]
    It still works. The energy in the roadster could last 2 months without charge.
    Feb 27, 2012. 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Fiasco Shows 'It's Never The Event, It's The Cover-Up' [View article]
    The blog post was too sensational. Sensationalism often comes with hidden agendas, imo. Top Gear took a similar approach. There's not much you can do against such overtly unbalanced sensationalized attacks, but to fight fire with fire.

    Degusto never told us readers that he is a friend ("business partner") of Max. Helping a friend out is fine but there should be some disclosure.

    Who knows if there are malintentions, ulterior motives or vengences against Tesla. But taking the sensational approach leaves little to desire. Why not just take the legal route and sue Tesla? Tesla can't just go replace everybody's batteries if they go dead based on outright neglect. I'm sure Tesla will replace the battery for free if indeed it was their fault (ie..technology failure outside the stipulations of the contract).

    If you forget to pay your car insurance premium for a month and you get into an accident that month, the insurance company isn't going to pay for your huge bill even if you come crying.

    Based on your disclosure, you're not really an investor in TSLA. You're just a short term trader. Hence that disclosure you're long TSLA is unnecessary and useless to readers.
    Feb 27, 2012. 10:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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