AAA

http://www.nicolasmurcia.com

19 Comments

    • Recession Season - Cramer's Mad Money (7/7/08) [view article]
      Cocaine is recession-proof as well, unfortunately the FARC don't wanna go public. Jul 10 11:26 AM
    • Google Should Deliver Its YouTube Data to Viacom in Paper Form [view article]
      AWESOME IDEA !! Jul 05 10:21 AM
    • Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude [view article]
      Sorry ---- I meant ECB will raise rates --- Jun 27 11:31 AM
    • Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude [view article]
      What do you do if you are UltraShort Oil & Gas, and Iran gets smashed earlier than anticipated ? It's tempting but no thanks.

      Besides, the ECB will cut rates before the Fed does, and traders will buy more "black gold futures" to hedge against a falling dollar. Dangerous gamble if Japan raises bank rates, knowing that they borrow yen to purchase dollars and speculate.       Jun 27 08:12 AM
    • When Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
      BTW, Very complete article. Thanks. Jun 27 07:58 AM
    • When Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
      Could a rate hike by the ECB in July trigger a worldwide pullback in the stock market (and therefore hijack the Fed role) ? Jun 27 07:57 AM
    • Recent World Events Are Bullish for Metals [view article]
      One thing I know best is aluminium.

      The best positionned company in this industry is RioTinto, as they just acquired Alcan, one of the leading aluminum firms. The reason is that global demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a faster pace than all of the main iron-ore commodity types (copper, steel, ...) for the next decade. I don't have the source link, but it was on one of the last annual reports, you can find that on their website.

      The major expenditure in producing aluminum is energy cost, and that where RioTinto-Alcan makes a difference.

      What gives RioTinto Alcan a competitive advantage other its competitors, is that they own the most advance smelter technology that reduces energy consumption. Secondly, 2/3 of their energy comes from hydroelectric power in Quebec whereas Chinese competitors use coal-fired electricity generators. On a cost curve chinese competitors energy costs seem on average twice as expensive.

      I don't know if this is going to make a difference on the stock, but clearly I would go with the leader in the long-term. Otherwise, Alcoa is poised to be bought or merge in the next two years.

      Check out my final report for more information which I made for a class presentation this semester on RioTinto Alcan.

      www.nicolasmurcia.com/...
      Jun 25 12:19 PM
    • The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part I [view article]
      To support my previous comment on uranium, I guess my comment was a bit too narrow by only mentionning the US.
      "Uranium Soon Fetches $90 as India Leads New Reactors Driving Global Demand"

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...
      Jun 23 10:19 AM
    • High Likelihood of a Market Crash [view article]
      I believe that the smart political move that carry on the geopolitic agenda would prefer a crash in october or after the election. Enough time for short-sellers to get squeeze and trigger a late rally this summer. What's gonna happen next? a not-so-unexpected raise in interest rates in september on top of a world food crisis which will crash the stock market.

      My bet is on the table. The game is on.

      Now the question is for you guys, do you want to stand on the sideline for the next six months, or do you want to grab that last rally to the summit?       Jun 23 01:11 AM
    • U.S. Markets: A Ton of Doubt Calls for Caution [view article]
      I think we need a good "last breath" rally for july, then when earnings suddenly show up worst than expected, after the Olympic games, then the market will sink 20%. Sentiment is way too bearish for such thing to happen now. Jun 22 12:48 PM
    • Illustrated Lessons from Financial Cycles and Trends [view article]
      Knowing what other people don't know is certainly great, but unless you are an insider or great at anticipating future trends you won't bridge the knowledge gap. Even IF you are able to transcend today's world of constant ambiguous news' flow and think ahead of the crowd, well you will still lose your shirt betting against the big crowd (not in number but the one with the money) because there are the ones moving the market. Jun 21 05:13 PM
    • The Long Case for ABB Ltd. [view article]
      ABB was on my shopping list for a year but I always had one concern:
      what would be the impact of a chinese economy slowdown on ABB stock?       Jun 20 07:07 PM
    • Apple's iTunes: Rapid Sales Acceleration [view article]
      Definitely a serious threat to Blockbuster and Netflix in the future. Jun 20 05:51 PM
    • Multinational Corporations Step Up the Search for the Next China [view article]
      Too bad there were no ETF focused on Vietnam in the last few years, China is now the one outsourcing in foreign emerging countries and places such as Vietnam present a great growth opportunity. Hopefully, strong inflation on food prices, especially rice, which people there eat for breakfast lunch and dinner won't be too significant. Jun 20 05:49 PM
    • Sell These Three Stocks Before Everyone Else Does [view article]
      To quote myself:

      """&quo...
      This guy should stop drawing meaningless isocost lines and start considering deferred sales revenue from the Iphone and the brand value of Apple. What a dumbass! Apple is a symbol for students and I'm so surprise how people don't understand that we will all graduate in 2/3 and guess what? We are loyal customers...

      Recommendation: Apple is undervalued
      Sentiment: Strong Buy Long-Term

      """&quo...

      I do apologize for calling you a "dumbass".
      As far as I am concerned I don't have any emotionnal connection with Apple whatsoever, as I only own an small apple shuffle and I sold my stock 2 months ago when the stock got back on its two feets.

      Considering the current macroeconomic environment, if you are a trader, I would stay on the sideline and buy commodity stocks and wait another 6 months after the market correct a good 15% to get back into this stock.

      From what I see on my campus, people don't think you're hip if you don't have an apple laptop, so peer pressure is strong for all those students to get one, and the number of Apple consumers keep rising.

      Good luck in timing the market.       Jun 20 02:42 PM
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