Le French's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/130932/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/131580-the-seduction-of-america?source=feed#comment-470666 470666
what people seek is comfort. That's what money buys.
if you compare a car from the 60's and a car from the 90's, you would agree that the last one is more technologically advanced.

I think we should put into perspective wealth growth over the years with a discounted technological progress.
]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 02:29:26 -0400
what people seek is comfort. That's what money buys.
if you compare a car from the 60's and a car from the 90's, you would agree that the last one is more technologically advanced.

I think we should put into perspective wealth growth over the years with a discounted technological progress.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123758-could-the-dow-fall-to-1600?source=feed#comment-411007 411007 (1) the level of US debt
(2) the US trade deficit
(3) Fed interest rates

The reason stock market has been like a slow motion train wreck and didn't crash is simply because of the recent political decisions which have strenghten the US dollar by leveraging temporarily consumer purchasing power and overvalued toxic assets, besides increasing rates of savings from people getting out of the capital markets in cash.

taken from an economic survey on crude oil prices:

"It is also of interest to note that the average nominal price for the OPEC basket of $24.36/B for the year 2002 was equivalent to only $6.53/B in 1973 dollars. The nominal price was more than eight times as much while the real price was only just over double. The main culprit was inflation and not the dollar."

source:
www.mees.com/postedart...

]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:16:58 -0500 (1) the level of US debt
(2) the US trade deficit
(3) Fed interest rates

The reason stock market has been like a slow motion train wreck and didn't crash is simply because of the recent political decisions which have strenghten the US dollar by leveraging temporarily consumer purchasing power and overvalued toxic assets, besides increasing rates of savings from people getting out of the capital markets in cash.

taken from an economic survey on crude oil prices:

"It is also of interest to note that the average nominal price for the OPEC basket of $24.36/B for the year 2002 was equivalent to only $6.53/B in 1973 dollars. The nominal price was more than eight times as much while the real price was only just over double. The main culprit was inflation and not the dollar."

source:
www.mees.com/postedart...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103616-the-next-crisis-is-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-297288 297288
does this mean buyers should get into oil and other commodities in 6 months to get ahead ?]]> Mon, 03 Nov 2008 11:40:48 -0500
does this mean buyers should get into oil and other commodities in 6 months to get ahead ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102054-here-s-how-this-week-could-unfold?source=feed#comment-291301 291301 Mon, 27 Oct 2008 08:20:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84006-recession-season-cramer-s-mad-money-7-7-08?source=feed#comment-202245 202245 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:26:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83800-google-should-deliver-its-youtube-data-to-viacom-in-paper-form?source=feed#comment-198858 198858 Sat, 05 Jul 2008 10:21:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82984-time-to-short-both-long-term-bonds-and-crude?source=feed#comment-194217 194217 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:31:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82984-time-to-short-both-long-term-bonds-and-crude?source=feed#comment-193958 193958
Besides, the ECB will cut rates before the Fed does, and traders will buy more "black gold futures" to hedge against a falling dollar. Dangerous gamble if Japan raises bank rates, knowing that they borrow yen to purchase dollars and speculate.]]> Fri, 27 Jun 2008 08:12:24 -0400
Besides, the ECB will cut rates before the Fed does, and traders will buy more "black gold futures" to hedge against a falling dollar. Dangerous gamble if Japan raises bank rates, knowing that they borrow yen to purchase dollars and speculate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82931-when-central-bankers-clash-stock-markets-can-crash?source=feed#comment-193943 193943 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:58:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82931-when-central-bankers-clash-stock-markets-can-crash?source=feed#comment-193941 193941 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:57:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81291-recent-world-events-are-bullish-for-metals?source=feed#comment-192647 192647
The best positionned company in this industry is RioTinto, as they just acquired Alcan, one of the leading aluminum firms. The reason is that global demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a faster pace than all of the main iron-ore commodity types (copper, steel, ...) for the next decade. I don't have the source link, but it was on one of the last annual reports, you can find that on their website.

The major expenditure in producing aluminum is energy cost, and that where RioTinto-Alcan makes a difference.

What gives RioTinto Alcan a competitive advantage other its competitors, is that they own the most advance smelter technology that reduces energy consumption. Secondly, 2/3 of their energy comes from hydroelectric power in Quebec whereas Chinese competitors use coal-fired electricity generators. On a cost curve chinese competitors energy costs seem on average twice as expensive.

I don't know if this is going to make a difference on the stock, but clearly I would go with the leader in the long-term. Otherwise, Alcoa is poised to be bought or merge in the next two years.

Check out my final report for more information which I made for a class presentation this semester on RioTinto Alcan.

www.nicolasmurcia.com/...
]]> Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:19:18 -0400
The best positionned company in this industry is RioTinto, as they just acquired Alcan, one of the leading aluminum firms. The reason is that global demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a faster pace than all of the main iron-ore commodity types (copper, steel, ...) for the next decade. I don't have the source link, but it was on one of the last annual reports, you can find that on their website.

The major expenditure in producing aluminum is energy cost, and that where RioTinto-Alcan makes a difference.

What gives RioTinto Alcan a competitive advantage other its competitors, is that they own the most advance smelter technology that reduces energy consumption. Secondly, 2/3 of their energy comes from hydroelectric power in Quebec whereas Chinese competitors use coal-fired electricity generators. On a cost curve chinese competitors energy costs seem on average twice as expensive.

I don't know if this is going to make a difference on the stock, but clearly I would go with the leader in the long-term. Otherwise, Alcoa is poised to be bought or merge in the next two years.

Check out my final report for more information which I made for a class presentation this semester on RioTinto Alcan.

www.nicolasmurcia.com/...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82149-the-brightest-stars-in-the-commodities-boom-part-i?source=feed#comment-190852 190852 "Uranium Soon Fetches $90 as India Leads New Reactors Driving Global Demand"

www.bloomberg.com/apps...
]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:19:12 -0400 "Uranium Soon Fetches $90 as India Leads New Reactors Driving Global Demand"

www.bloomberg.com/apps...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82182-high-likelihood-of-a-market-crash?source=feed#comment-190629 190629
My bet is on the table. The game is on.

Now the question is for you guys, do you want to stand on the sideline for the next six months, or do you want to grab that last rally to the summit?]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 01:11:43 -0400
My bet is on the table. The game is on.

Now the question is for you guys, do you want to stand on the sideline for the next six months, or do you want to grab that last rally to the summit?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82242-u-s-markets-a-ton-of-doubt-calls-for-caution?source=feed#comment-190250 190250 Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:48:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82175-illustrated-lessons-from-financial-cycles-and-trends?source=feed#comment-189864 189864 Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:13:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82069-the-long-case-for-abb-ltd?source=feed#comment-189497 189497 what would be the impact of a chinese economy slowdown on ABB stock?]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 19:07:15 -0400 what would be the impact of a chinese economy slowdown on ABB stock?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82161-apple-s-itunes-rapid-sales-acceleration?source=feed#comment-189464 189464 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 17:51:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57477-sell-these-three-stocks-before-everyone-else-does?source=feed#comment-189355 189355
"""""
This guy should stop drawing meaningless isocost lines and start considering deferred sales revenue from the Iphone and the brand value of Apple. What a dumbass! Apple is a symbol for students and I'm so surprise how people don't understand that we will all graduate in 2/3 and guess what? We are loyal customers...

Recommendation: Apple is undervalued
Sentiment: Strong Buy Long-Term

""""""""""""""""""""""...

I do apologize for calling you a "dumbass".
As far as I am concerned I don't have any emotionnal connection with Apple whatsoever, as I only own an small apple shuffle and I sold my stock 2 months ago when the stock got back on its two feets.

Considering the current macroeconomic environment, if you are a trader, I would stay on the sideline and buy commodity stocks and wait another 6 months after the market correct a good 15% to get back into this stock.

From what I see on my campus, people don't think you're hip if you don't have an apple laptop, so peer pressure is strong for all those students to get one, and the number of Apple consumers keep rising.

Good luck in timing the market.]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:42:15 -0400
"""""
This guy should stop drawing meaningless isocost lines and start considering deferred sales revenue from the Iphone and the brand value of Apple. What a dumbass! Apple is a symbol for students and I'm so surprise how people don't understand that we will all graduate in 2/3 and guess what? We are loyal customers...

Recommendation: Apple is undervalued
Sentiment: Strong Buy Long-Term

""""""""""""""""""""""...

I do apologize for calling you a "dumbass".
As far as I am concerned I don't have any emotionnal connection with Apple whatsoever, as I only own an small apple shuffle and I sold my stock 2 months ago when the stock got back on its two feets.

Considering the current macroeconomic environment, if you are a trader, I would stay on the sideline and buy commodity stocks and wait another 6 months after the market correct a good 15% to get back into this stock.

From what I see on my campus, people don't think you're hip if you don't have an apple laptop, so peer pressure is strong for all those students to get one, and the number of Apple consumers keep rising.

Good luck in timing the market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82149-the-brightest-stars-in-the-commodities-boom-part-i?source=feed#comment-189330 189330
The lower the overall volume of these precious metal, the easier it is for market players to manipulate the price of the commodity.
> If I was to invest in these I'd rather go with URANIUM, considering the current expectations in energy policy, the US will certainly reconsider soon enough the benefits of nuclear power.

> Coal for lectricity power plants is not only in high demand in China. Demand in India is booming as well. Moreover, there are different types of coal, such as metalurgical coal which grabs way higher prices.

Considering the current disaster in China, booming demand for automobiles in both China and India, I wouldn't focus all my attention on dry bulk shipping as an indicator, in fact maritime shipping has been in a constant shortage since the last decade.

Last but not least, coal supply is not elastic if you consider the time span and investment required to significantly increase production.]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:10:17 -0400
The lower the overall volume of these precious metal, the easier it is for market players to manipulate the price of the commodity.
> If I was to invest in these I'd rather go with URANIUM, considering the current expectations in energy policy, the US will certainly reconsider soon enough the benefits of nuclear power.

> Coal for lectricity power plants is not only in high demand in China. Demand in India is booming as well. Moreover, there are different types of coal, such as metalurgical coal which grabs way higher prices.

Considering the current disaster in China, booming demand for automobiles in both China and India, I wouldn't focus all my attention on dry bulk shipping as an indicator, in fact maritime shipping has been in a constant shortage since the last decade.

Last but not least, coal supply is not elastic if you consider the time span and investment required to significantly increase production.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82009-linkedin-a-billion-dollar-bet-on-professional-networking?source=feed#comment-189243 189243 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 12:44:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81997-hp-to-restructure-lucrative-printing-business?source=feed#comment-189236 189236
Restructuring better be effective, but I trust management on that one. However, I wouldn't own HP right now, decrease in consumer spending is going to hurt...maybe that's why they do the hardwork inside the firm right now.]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 12:38:59 -0400
Restructuring better be effective, but I trust management on that one. However, I wouldn't own HP right now, decrease in consumer spending is going to hurt...maybe that's why they do the hardwork inside the firm right now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57477-sell-these-three-stocks-before-everyone-else-does?source=feed#comment-105679 105679
Recommendation: Apple is undervalued
Sentiment: Strong Buy Long-Term]]> Mon, 17 Dec 2007 08:29:36 -0500
Recommendation: Apple is undervalued
Sentiment: Strong Buy Long-Term]]>