Iconoclast421's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/130964/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/168533-warning-the-coming-credit-dislocation?source=feed#comment-727438 727438 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:26:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63500-how-donahoe-broke-ebay?source=feed#comment-723255 723255 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:07:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-679637 679637
btw how is that TBT trade going?]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:47:29 -0400
btw how is that TBT trade going?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158286-analyzing-strange-volume-on-the-nyse?source=feed#comment-650651 650651 Fri, 28 Aug 2009 09:26:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157935-the-next-shoe-to-drop-in-banking-an-options-strategy?source=feed#comment-647932 647932
All you need is one of these positions to double in order to lock in the profit. It is quite possible that they both would double at some point.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:06:29 -0400
All you need is one of these positions to double in order to lock in the profit. It is quite possible that they both would double at some point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158286-analyzing-strange-volume-on-the-nyse?source=feed#comment-647401 647401 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:41:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158170-legalized-accounting-fraud-boosted?source=feed#comment-646607 646607
XLF dec 14 puts are only a dollar ffs... but even better yet UYG dec 6 puts are only a dollar. XLF would have to be up around 16 for UYG (in all its decaying glory) to get and stay above 6. But if XLF is really going to get that high, its going to be on the back of total junk. In other words, Citi would have to rocket to 6 or 7 or... 10! And C dec 5 calls are only 68 cents so it wouldnt cost much to hedge against that. That's how I'm thinking of playing it anyway... C dec 5 calls and uyg dec 6 puts. ]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 00:42:40 -0400
XLF dec 14 puts are only a dollar ffs... but even better yet UYG dec 6 puts are only a dollar. XLF would have to be up around 16 for UYG (in all its decaying glory) to get and stay above 6. But if XLF is really going to get that high, its going to be on the back of total junk. In other words, Citi would have to rocket to 6 or 7 or... 10! And C dec 5 calls are only 68 cents so it wouldnt cost much to hedge against that. That's how I'm thinking of playing it anyway... C dec 5 calls and uyg dec 6 puts. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158170-legalized-accounting-fraud-boosted?source=feed#comment-645309 645309
Yes, hiding that pay is a crime. And? So is accounting fraud - in theory."

Congrats Karl, you have discovered the driving force behind the Next Big Bubble! I've been calling it the "permanent delinquency bubble" or the "nonpayment bubble". Imagine if millions of people all charge up their credit cards and borrow all the money they can. And then they "launder" that money into the "black market"... (that place where money goes when it is no longer easily traceable.) The Fed thinks its gone but its really still there. There is your replacement for falling wages and incomes.

Then the Fed prints more money to patch up the holes on all the bank balance sheets. Now you have two chunks of the same money floating around the economy... both on wall street (represented by the banker bailouts) and on main street (represented by money "stolen" from the credit card companies and dumped into the "black market".)

Now all we need is for swine flu to come along and "eliminate" some fossil fuel demand, keeping energy prices low.

Voila: instant twilight zone recovery. With a dash of selective debt forgiveness based on political favoritism. (That is no small thing either.)

I used to joke about how the next bubble will be confirmed when banks start giving loans to people who are already are in default on a mortgage owned by that very same bank! Now I dont think it's a joke. I think we're really going to start seeing things like this happen. We're way beyond ponzi now...]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:21:28 -0400
Yes, hiding that pay is a crime. And? So is accounting fraud - in theory."

Congrats Karl, you have discovered the driving force behind the Next Big Bubble! I've been calling it the "permanent delinquency bubble" or the "nonpayment bubble". Imagine if millions of people all charge up their credit cards and borrow all the money they can. And then they "launder" that money into the "black market"... (that place where money goes when it is no longer easily traceable.) The Fed thinks its gone but its really still there. There is your replacement for falling wages and incomes.

Then the Fed prints more money to patch up the holes on all the bank balance sheets. Now you have two chunks of the same money floating around the economy... both on wall street (represented by the banker bailouts) and on main street (represented by money "stolen" from the credit card companies and dumped into the "black market".)

Now all we need is for swine flu to come along and "eliminate" some fossil fuel demand, keeping energy prices low.

Voila: instant twilight zone recovery. With a dash of selective debt forgiveness based on political favoritism. (That is no small thing either.)

I used to joke about how the next bubble will be confirmed when banks start giving loans to people who are already are in default on a mortgage owned by that very same bank! Now I dont think it's a joke. I think we're really going to start seeing things like this happen. We're way beyond ponzi now...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156115-the-new-bull-market-fallacy?source=feed#comment-629943 629943 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:35:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155151-monetizing-the-debt-open-market-operations-and-statistics?source=feed#comment-623853 623853 Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:30:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/239719-james-quinn/20742-buy-a-hybrid-peak-oil-is-here?source=feed#comment-619370 619370
Also keep in mind that a hybrid "pulls forward" energy consumption. What this means is you are making a huge upfront energy investment in the building of a hybrid drivetrain. Contrast that with gasoline, which has a simpler and cheaper drivetrain that allows you to purchase fuel as you need it, without pulling forward demand.

I'm not saying hybrids arent better.... we are making a fair trade. We're trading wasted fuel (emissions out the tailpipe) for jobs (factories for all the new drivetrain components). But all those new jobs mean new incomes and thus new energy demands, which cancels out whatever savings a hybrid might realize. Bottom line is even if the world auto fleet was ALL hybrids, we would still be just as dependent on petroleum. So it all comes down to whether oil production rates have been maxed out. Has it "hit the ceiling"? If it has, then it would be the height of folly to suggest building an entire new manufacturing infrastructure now. The HEIGHT of folly.

Rather than buying a hybrid, if you believe we hit the ceiling then you might want to consider buying a gun...]]> Fri, 07 Aug 2009 08:26:33 -0400
Also keep in mind that a hybrid "pulls forward" energy consumption. What this means is you are making a huge upfront energy investment in the building of a hybrid drivetrain. Contrast that with gasoline, which has a simpler and cheaper drivetrain that allows you to purchase fuel as you need it, without pulling forward demand.

I'm not saying hybrids arent better.... we are making a fair trade. We're trading wasted fuel (emissions out the tailpipe) for jobs (factories for all the new drivetrain components). But all those new jobs mean new incomes and thus new energy demands, which cancels out whatever savings a hybrid might realize. Bottom line is even if the world auto fleet was ALL hybrids, we would still be just as dependent on petroleum. So it all comes down to whether oil production rates have been maxed out. Has it "hit the ceiling"? If it has, then it would be the height of folly to suggest building an entire new manufacturing infrastructure now. The HEIGHT of folly.

Rather than buying a hybrid, if you believe we hit the ceiling then you might want to consider buying a gun...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153105-1-month-24-bank-failures-random-event-or-wilting-economy?source=feed#comment-615045 615045 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:36:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151173-hft-the-high-frequency-trading-scam?source=feed#comment-600903 600903
The manipulation and criminality has only just begun. It's funny that you mention the mafia and protection money. Sooner or later, the criminality will become as open as the mafia running a protection racket. It happened in Germany in the 1930s. People will and have learned to turn a blind eye to it.

Even in today's world where it is so easy to capture crime and corruption on video, it still does not matter. Already we are seeing multiple instances where blatant crimes are commited right on the camera, with the perp in full view and fully identified, and yet the victim receives nothing in the way of justice. The closest to justice he will see is having his video pulled off of youtube! ]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 11:07:48 -0400
The manipulation and criminality has only just begun. It's funny that you mention the mafia and protection money. Sooner or later, the criminality will become as open as the mafia running a protection racket. It happened in Germany in the 1930s. People will and have learned to turn a blind eye to it.

Even in today's world where it is so easy to capture crime and corruption on video, it still does not matter. Already we are seeing multiple instances where blatant crimes are commited right on the camera, with the perp in full view and fully identified, and yet the victim receives nothing in the way of justice. The closest to justice he will see is having his video pulled off of youtube! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150832-welcome-to-economic-hell?source=feed#comment-599941 599941
www.nowandfutures.com/...

In Q3 1922, the Weimar stock market bottomed out. Within one year it had gone up tenfold, and that's in US dollars! ]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:13:52 -0400
www.nowandfutures.com/...

In Q3 1922, the Weimar stock market bottomed out. Within one year it had gone up tenfold, and that's in US dollars! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150832-welcome-to-economic-hell?source=feed#comment-599843 599843
i468.photobucket.com/a...

Note that this is an extreme bearish scenario where we lose 30 point a week yet the longterm buy signal is still generated. So its safe to say it is imminent, yet you still havent written one ticker about this. And I learned about this stupid signal from you! Lately when I read your stuff I get the same feeling I get when I watch one of those cheap hacks on tv...]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 14:56:14 -0400
i468.photobucket.com/a...

Note that this is an extreme bearish scenario where we lose 30 point a week yet the longterm buy signal is still generated. So its safe to say it is imminent, yet you still havent written one ticker about this. And I learned about this stupid signal from you! Lately when I read your stuff I get the same feeling I get when I watch one of those cheap hacks on tv...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149594-supporting-the-financial-system-by-bleeding-the-real-economy?source=feed#comment-596749 596749 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:16:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149772-a-four-point-plan-to-fix-the-economy?source=feed#comment-595644 595644
Aside from that, I like the plan and I think it would work much better than what they're going to do. Of course we know they're going to just sweep all this bad debt under the rug. I think the thing you are missing Karl is that the goal was always about making people into debt slaves. That is where the bankers get their real power. The ability to control entire populations by choosing, arbitrarily, whose debts will be forgiven. We are steadily marching towards that unfortunate end.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:27:44 -0400
Aside from that, I like the plan and I think it would work much better than what they're going to do. Of course we know they're going to just sweep all this bad debt under the rug. I think the thing you are missing Karl is that the goal was always about making people into debt slaves. That is where the bankers get their real power. The ability to control entire populations by choosing, arbitrarily, whose debts will be forgiven. We are steadily marching towards that unfortunate end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149002-intel-s-great-earnings-good-management-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-589903 589903
I made a couple charts to illustrate the type of crash that needs to happen to prevent the cross:

i468.photobucket.com/a...
i468.photobucket.com/a...]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:47:00 -0400
I made a couple charts to illustrate the type of crash that needs to happen to prevent the cross:

i468.photobucket.com/a...
i468.photobucket.com/a...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148722-reading-behind-recovery-headlines?source=feed#comment-588257 588257 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 18:13:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145123-durable-goods-not-all-good-news?source=feed#comment-560502 560502
i468.photobucket.com/a...

Barring a market crash BEFORE October, these lines will likely cross. I havent worked out what level the S&P needs to hold over the next couple months to prevent the crossing, but I know its below today's level! If this rally goes any higher then it all but guarantees a 20W/50W crossover before october.

My question is what will you do if that happens? If we get a 20W/50W cross, and that indicator is as reliable as it has PROVEN to be, then wouldnt you say this represents a pretty big dilemma?]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:32:32 -0400
i468.photobucket.com/a...

Barring a market crash BEFORE October, these lines will likely cross. I havent worked out what level the S&P needs to hold over the next couple months to prevent the crossing, but I know its below today's level! If this rally goes any higher then it all but guarantees a 20W/50W crossover before october.

My question is what will you do if that happens? If we get a 20W/50W cross, and that indicator is as reliable as it has PROVEN to be, then wouldnt you say this represents a pretty big dilemma?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143696-worst-housing-number-in-decades-what-is-the-wall-street-media-smoking?source=feed#comment-558879 558879 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:16:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144538-more-option-arm-falsehoods-interest-rates-are-not-the-issue?source=feed#comment-557225 557225 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:34:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144373-hedge-fund-cantillon-closing-converting-to-long-only-fund?source=feed#comment-557145 557145 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:48:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140683-gm-are-we-in-looneyland?source=feed#comment-526558 526558 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:11:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139997-is-it-time-to-end-quantitative-easing?source=feed#comment-522563 522563 Fri, 29 May 2009 07:52:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140186-too-much-supply-too-little-support?source=feed#comment-521885 521885 Thu, 28 May 2009 16:29:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136900-nothing-suggests-we-re-anywhere-near-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-498765 498765 (-12.5%), personal income taxes fell by
$9.2 billion (-19.7%), and corporate taxes
were $614 million lower (-7.5%) than last
year’s total at the end of April."

So for the first 4 months of 2009, personal income taxes are down by 20%.]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 09:08:26 -0400 (-12.5%), personal income taxes fell by
$9.2 billion (-19.7%), and corporate taxes
were $614 million lower (-7.5%) than last
year’s total at the end of April."

So for the first 4 months of 2009, personal income taxes are down by 20%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136182-the-case-for-getting-short?source=feed#comment-495967 495967
And besides, if the Fed buys 2 trillion in residential MBS, that by my guess is at least a trillion of "new" money minted out of thin air from the Fed overpaying. So the banks get to book a bunch more profits. They wont do it all at once, because that would be too greedy. But they will use that money to write off the MBS that they still hold. If everything goes as planned, the banks get their balance sheets cleaned. No one cares if the taxpayer gets screwed in the end, even the taxpayer, apparently. The Fed is just going to keep loading up its balance sheet with crap and exchanging that crap for money. Banks will profit, the money will flow out of wall street into commodities, the resulting inflation will be factored out of CPI, GDP will be fudged upwards, millions will flow into tent cities, and the media will report all of this as great news! And Wall Street will soar! I want to know specifically why you dont see that happening. They are criminals, and they have control over all the levers now. They've thrown down the gauntlet, its all out in the open now, and like Carlin said, no one really seems to care. I have my own theories as to why, but it doesnt really matter at this point. ]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 15:26:09 -0400
And besides, if the Fed buys 2 trillion in residential MBS, that by my guess is at least a trillion of "new" money minted out of thin air from the Fed overpaying. So the banks get to book a bunch more profits. They wont do it all at once, because that would be too greedy. But they will use that money to write off the MBS that they still hold. If everything goes as planned, the banks get their balance sheets cleaned. No one cares if the taxpayer gets screwed in the end, even the taxpayer, apparently. The Fed is just going to keep loading up its balance sheet with crap and exchanging that crap for money. Banks will profit, the money will flow out of wall street into commodities, the resulting inflation will be factored out of CPI, GDP will be fudged upwards, millions will flow into tent cities, and the media will report all of this as great news! And Wall Street will soar! I want to know specifically why you dont see that happening. They are criminals, and they have control over all the levers now. They've thrown down the gauntlet, its all out in the open now, and like Carlin said, no one really seems to care. I have my own theories as to why, but it doesnt really matter at this point. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136182-the-case-for-getting-short?source=feed#comment-495158 495158 Fri, 08 May 2009 06:45:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the-worst-case-scenario-someone-has-to-say-it?source=feed#comment-489542 489542 Mon, 04 May 2009 21:08:50 -0400