EL-GRECO's Comments

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:47:47 -0400

There's some good points in this article, but I didn't agree with the HFTP acting as the central prop to the market. If as you say HFTP aren't in it for the profit but for the rebate they collect for each transaction, why would they exit the market if a fee can be generated regardless of market direction?

I also don't agree with your apocalyptical scenario in the unregulated derivatives market although clearly last year it was indeed an issue of concern. When the Feds started marching into the banking industry in early 2008, they will have had a good view of the derivatives problem so is there any reason why they wouldn't have got to work immediately to contain the problem? Twelve months down the road today, there must be less risk in the derivatives market than there was last September, don't you agree?

I think the genuine potential market killers in your article have to be sustained unemployment and economic contraction but again, the government has already demonstrated its willingness to bankrupt itself to save its economy, appease the population and generally do whatever it takes to prevent a collapse of the system. If they continue to meet problems with assorted financial handouts, and this seems to be the format of their remedial action all round, it's the dollar that eventually will take the hit and it's possibly where the fireworks will come from. How will it affect the stock market and when? How will it affect foreign stock markets? how will global leaders collaborate to cushion the impact and patch up the problem? No one can possibly know this ahead of time...

Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again

Sun, 08 Feb 2009 18:06:33 -0500

Alan Skoreyko and Bick2 got it exactly right. Which leaves CNBC to explain why they don't admit that almost everything they do is for their ratings, and not for advice or information.

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Thu, 01 Jan 2009 17:58:56 -0500

"Foreign demand for US debt is all but gone, as creditor nations are now attempting to unwind their USD positions."

If this statement were correct, Treasury yields would be a lot higher than they are today.

Gold: Still Further to Drop

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:53:51 -0400

I dont see how you relate to a chart of short gold in order to predict its future price. the chart is only an observation of what has happened; it cant tell you what gold is going to do. But price movements in the dollar, money supply changes and hedge fund redemptions sure can.

How Bernanke Stunned Congress with the Truth

Sat, 20 Sep 2008 21:11:35 -0400

Bloggers have known all along how to fix the problem? And in the space of two and a half years since he took office, Paulson is responsible for years and years of regulatory neglect in the financial system? OK, lets make the writer of this blog the new Fed chief...he seems to think its a cinch to fix the global financial system.

What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 19:38:46 -0400

Great observations. However they are short term movements and one can't yet conclude that these factors have set new trends. China has been raising interest rates over and over for the last three years. they still have rising inflation and the only reason they can do in the first place is because they have 10% growth every year so far. Second, demand destruction has to be global for the oil price to have a meaningful and sustainable reversal. There is no evidence yet that developing nations are going to change their aspirations to own cars and to mimick the aspirations of the typical western consumer. Cutting government subsidies for petrol in these countries could conceivably create the desired global demand destruction. Time will tell. For the moment energy companies are some of the best performing companies anywhere and the drop in crude to $100-$120 might even suit them better.

Oil Bulls' Biggest Nightmare: A Stronger Dollar

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 05:51:38 -0400

from JT

quote
It is ALL manipulated now. The PPT has its fingers into ALL market, tipping over TA dominoes in commodities (gold and silver mainly, but on certain days ALL commodities) and buying enough futures in the DOW to break thru resistance levels to create contrived "rallies"...often Hail Mary rallies at the end of the market day. But their main intervention has been in the gold and silver markets...the true monitor of the value (or more accurately the worthlessness) of our fiat currency. There is no "strong" dollar...just suppression of the prices of gold and silver...and mainly on the COMEX, aided by the Fed's/the Cartel's co-players/co-conspira... on the London exchange and the TOCOM (Tokyo). The rest is just talk based on the lies of the MSM.
unquote

I have often read this sort of commentary elsewhere, and anyone who follows market action intraday must have noticed all of the activities mentioned by JT; end of day rallies, persistent support around critical levels of the indicies etc.. I understand JP's disillusionment with govt; I guess we all are, and powerless to do anything about it. But why is he upset the market is being artificially supported? Good stock picking still earns you a return above the index, whilst articifical support of indicies prevents 1929-like occurences. The dollar? sure, it's weak. But 10 years ago the euro was 80 US cents, and if you look at various currency relationships over 50 years or so, they appear to have very long cycles of strength and weakness relative to each other; it's true particularly with the majors such as the yen, sterling, and the euro (using the DM as a proxy prior to the euro). Overall its true that all currencies are losing value but that's not the work of one central bank alone.

Henry Paulson Begins to Trash His Own Reputation

Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:50:30 -0400

This is the same plan that Schumer praised, right? the plan he said was a great start but didnt go far enough?

The (Abandoned) Uptick Rule and Blaming the Shorts

Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:31:11 -0400

We know the uptick rule doesn't affect markets that go up, that's why the uptick rule didn't get noticed last summer. By observation though, it's hard to argue that the lack of uptick rule hasn't had an affect on the markets in an uncertain environment like the one we're in now. And i'll bet the people who collect fees from trading just love it; indeed they probably had a hand in persuading the authorities to lift the rule in the first place. But finally, it doesn't matter what we think about the uptick rule; if its good bad or unimportant, who cares. The fact is, thanks to a plethora of instruments like double short ETFs and unrestrained shorting opportunities, the stock market is becoming more and more casino-like, breeds gamblers not investors, oh and by the way, the gamblers are using borrow money and borrowed equity to play... . It's a personal view but great stock picking such as identifying market mis-pricing is the real skill, but... each to his/her own.

A Historic Nine Days for the Federal Reserve

Wed, 26 Mar 2008 08:04:59 -0400

You omitted to mention that Roubini is pretty much fully invested and has been all through his ultra bearish commentaries. Watching what they do is a better idea that hearing what they say.

1970s Style Stagflation? I Don't Buy It

Fri, 22 Feb 2008 07:02:18 -0500

I thought M3 or its equivalent (is it MZM?) was the true measure of money supply growth. Have you tried the excercise with the M3 curves and what result would it give? Why is the M1 curve a better indicator of whether staglation is an issue or not? Thank you.

Decoupling Thesis Intact

Sat, 16 Feb 2008 16:39:44 -0500

Inless you think sovereign wealth funds are dumb money, then you must agree that they are seeing either value or opportunity in the US.

Stimulus Plan: We're In The Money?

Sat, 16 Feb 2008 15:22:28 -0500

Herb, if one of your children borrowed $10 from you and somehow managed to incur $100 of debt at the sweet shop they couldn't pay for, how would you resolve the problem?

The Asymmetry of Emotion and the Uptick Rule

Mon, 28 Jan 2008 07:03:08 -0500

The press have been conspicuously silent about this rather important point. Who benefits from higher volatility? Surely it's the big brokers, hedge funds and the market makers. Stability in markets is great for buy and hold retail investors, but perhaps it also makes retail investors look too good against the performance of hedge funds. Stability in markets its boring for the media, which likes to portray the market as one big casino. Perhaps all of these reasons are why no one talks about the removal of the uptick rule.

The CNBC-PZE Fiasco

Fri, 11 Jan 2008 05:04:09 -0500

I'm glad you brought this up because clearly channels like CNBC promote the short term view and are probably most useful to day-traders. Clearly, CNBC had a key role in the Nasdaq bubble hype 7 years ago by inviting every Tom Dick and Harry to come on their shows to balatantly hype stocks in a dishonest manner. In a milder form, they continue to do the same today, stoking up greed or fear and then appearing to try to take the opposite side to temper the mood they they have had a hand in creating. In their defense, they do also have some of the best commentators appearing regularly, so we are stuck with the need to turn the channel over to Bloomberg on a regular basis in order to get plain old news without noise while also tuning into the characters on CNBC that we like to watch. CNBC is definitely not a one-stop channel, it needs one to filter out the considerable junk that comes with the good stuff. Luckily Bloomberg is there to offer the sobre alternative when CNBC's circus gets too loud.

My Ten Predictions for 2008

Thu, 27 Dec 2007 16:00:44 -0500

Thomas, you're a grizzly old bear!.. this is indeed a possible scenario, only a little too negative. You assume the Fed and consumers will sit back and let all this happen without doing anything except drop rates (the fed) and sue banks (the consumers). c'mon Thomas, there's more to human ingenuity than that, surely?

The Inevitable Derivative Meltdown

Wed, 26 Dec 2007 17:17:10 -0500

I suppose Mr Ruggiero has sold all his currencies, stocks, bonds and properties and now pays for his groceries at the supermarket with gold sovereigns? Or maybe he has become a farmer in preparation for the coming catastrophe...

Money Supply Growth? It's Much Worse Than That!

Sun, 23 Dec 2007 20:12:02 -0500

so, presumably the gentleman who wrote this article has fully sold his us dollars, us treasuries, and us stocks? where is he invested and in what currency?

Sliding Dollar Turns U.S Into World's Discount Mall

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 06:30:12 -0500

Enter your comment hereWhy is it surprising that the dollar is where it is? It has been bombarded by negative propaganda for the last 3 years... If only the same level of propaganda were accorded to the spectacular rise in US exports this year as has been accorded to the deficit, people, investors, might have a slightly more positive view of things. It is a sad possibility that the stock market which is the obvious alternative to wealth creation to the now defunct property market should be so vulnerable to speculators (see oil price and the dollar) and rogue corporate practices (see banking and mortgage execs). If we do get a recession, it's coming thanks to them.

Sliding Dollar Turns U.S Into World's Discount Mall

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 06:16:07 -0500

Why is it surprising that the dollar is where it is? It has been bombarded by negative propaganda for the last 3 years... If only the same level of propaganda were accorded to the spectacular rise in US exports this year as has been accorded to the deficit, people, investors, might have a slightly more positive view of things. It is a sad possibility that the stock market which is the obvious alternative to wealth creation to the now defunct property market should be so vulnerable to speculators (see oil price and the dollar) and rogue corporate practices (see banking and mortgage execs). If we do get a recession, it's coming thanks to them.

Enough of the Charts-Based Crash Talk

Wed, 31 Oct 2007 06:36:24 -0400

I'm glad you made the point; I don't read this type of article often enough. What is more astonishing is the amount of valuable air time that is given to predictions. Essentially the media is giving every Tom Dick and Harry talking head the chance to be right about some forthcoming event, by allowing them to rattle off prediction after prediction which eventually leads to the "right call". And after bombarding viewers with daily 1987 anniversary crash televised segments, the media expresses surprise that the market should tank on the anniversary date. I would suggest that financial TV, the way it is presented today, has a hand at sustaining volatility in the markets, and they just love the power it gives them.

The Superfund's Merits: Sorry Hank, I'm Just Not Buying It

Sun, 21 Oct 2007 11:59:32 -0400

I suggest that saving Citi - if indeed, as you indicate, that is the purpose of the fund - is in everyone's interests. It's not the right moment to play school teacher, as Mervyn King recently found out.

Sell the U.S. Market Before October

Mon, 24 Sep 2007 05:59:13 -0400

I fail to understand how a US market wide sell off can occur without affecting the commodity ETF's. We know from the last few sell-offs recently that everything goes down when hedge funds are selling. It is also still a matter of debate as to whether Asia can stand up alone without western demand for its goods; in the event of a recession or stagflation is the USA, are the goods being produced in Asia going to be fully abosrbed locally? It hasnt happened yet; it could of course, but anyone who is advocating hold Asia, sell US, hasn't seen what happens to HK stocks like ACH and YZC, to name but two commodity plays, when the Dow sells off. I agree that currencies is a good way to play the scenario you predict.

Jeremy Grantham: Hedge Funds To Collapse

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 17:49:11 -0400

The timing of Mr Grantham's comments make them slightly disingenuous. He could have made those comments any time this year. Why choose to go to Bloomberg when the markets seem on the verge of rolling over?

Are Policymakers Living in Financial La-La Land?

Tue, 06 Mar 2007 11:26:04 -0500

Are Policymakers Living in Financial La-La Land?

Who should i believe? The people who have been put in charge of dealing with the world's largest economy, or the hysterical press, doomsday book writers and rigged commentators who yap all day and all night on the financial news networks? Obviously I come down on the side of the ones who arrived at the job with credientials; that's Mr Paulson and Dr Bernanke.

On Dr Greenspan, there's about equal support for those who think he was the worst thing that ever happened to the US economy and those who think he's the Messiah. Judging from the from the three day backpeddaling, he's not sure if recession is possible, probable or a statistical possibility.

The economy isnt perfect but the only meltdown ahead is gthe one we could create for ourselves if we continue to overanalyse the negatives, as our favourite TV media commentators are prone to doing.