granger's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/13122/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174655-cognitive-dissonance-thoughts-about-the-dollar-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-771595 771595 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 08:46:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174634-show-me-economic-expansion-chairman-bernanke?source=feed#comment-771583 771583
An old boss of mine, used to refer to the LEI as the Misleading Economic Indicator. He said the best leading indicator to watch is Jobless Claims, ignore LEI.

That was several years ago and what I have followed ever since.


On Nov 22 08:18 AM Wildebeest wrote:

> "It has now been seven months since the LEI went ballistic, and the
> CEI remains flat. I am confused by The Conference Board’s statement
> as I do not see in their data that “economic recovery is finally
> setting in”. My bet remains the leading index is broken, and the
> coincident index shows the real picture.There is no evidence of real
> economic growth occurring yet. "
>
> Steve, the main components in the LEI are money supply 35.8%, and
> average weekly hours in manufacturing makes up 25.5%. Average weekly
> hours in manufacturing are up marginally but I would have thought
> that would be due to companies shedding workers and wanting remaining
> employees to work a bit longer. The big one though is money supply.
> With that sort of weighting, as long as the printing presses a running
> the LEI will point north -- and will reflect a disconnect between
> economists/experts and main street.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 08:37:28 -0500
An old boss of mine, used to refer to the LEI as the Misleading Economic Indicator. He said the best leading indicator to watch is Jobless Claims, ignore LEI.

That was several years ago and what I have followed ever since.


On Nov 22 08:18 AM Wildebeest wrote:

> "It has now been seven months since the LEI went ballistic, and the
> CEI remains flat. I am confused by The Conference Board’s statement
> as I do not see in their data that “economic recovery is finally
> setting in”. My bet remains the leading index is broken, and the
> coincident index shows the real picture.There is no evidence of real
> economic growth occurring yet. "
>
> Steve, the main components in the LEI are money supply 35.8%, and
> average weekly hours in manufacturing makes up 25.5%. Average weekly
> hours in manufacturing are up marginally but I would have thought
> that would be due to companies shedding workers and wanting remaining
> employees to work a bit longer. The big one though is money supply.
> With that sort of weighting, as long as the printing presses a running
> the LEI will point north -- and will reflect a disconnect between
> economists/experts and main street.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174576-the-oil-casino-sec-heading-for-monte-carlo-part-ii?source=feed#comment-770620 770620 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:15:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173607-why-the-stock-market-should-crash?source=feed#comment-763854 763854 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:49:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173585-gdp-forecasts-systemic-risks-increase-due-to-easy-money?source=feed#comment-763244 763244

On Nov 16 06:00 PM Gary A wrote:

> The reason the government is lying about spending and GDP is because
> I have proof, tax receipts are tanking everywhere. So, Mr Dynamic,
> how do you explain that? globaleconomicanalysis...
>
>
> On Nov 16 03:49 PM thiazole wrote:]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:59:01 -0500

On Nov 16 06:00 PM Gary A wrote:

> The reason the government is lying about spending and GDP is because
> I have proof, tax receipts are tanking everywhere. So, Mr Dynamic,
> how do you explain that? globaleconomicanalysis...
>
>
> On Nov 16 03:49 PM thiazole wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173707-what-volume-signals-indicate-for-the-markets?source=feed#comment-763230 763230 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:47:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173505-the-financial-body-count-pension-risk-increases?source=feed#comment-763185 763185

On Nov 16 08:49 AM Robert Jung wrote:

> It seems to me that one can only conclude that the Fed "must" inflate
> asset values.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:16:09 -0500

On Nov 16 08:49 AM Robert Jung wrote:

> It seems to me that one can only conclude that the Fed "must" inflate
> asset values.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173228-dividend-grouping-for-dividend-income?source=feed#comment-760860 760860
This on of the best explanations of dividend growth I have seen. The idea of dividend grouping is new,I will have to think about some more.]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:46:30 -0500
This on of the best explanations of dividend growth I have seen. The idea of dividend grouping is new,I will have to think about some more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172641-ambac-now-it-warns-of-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-758002 758002 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:46:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172536-erosion-in-the-m2-m1-relationship-and-the-burgeoning-eurodollar-bubble?source=feed#comment-757835 757835 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:34:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172617-s-p-500-breadth-checkup?source=feed#comment-757824 757824 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:23:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172723-evaluating-s-p-500-s-top-ten-ceos?source=feed#comment-757645 757645 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:31:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172043-the-reluctant-bull-my-portfolio?source=feed#comment-750560 750560 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 08:29:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171951-friday-roundup-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-749837 749837 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:29:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170419-how-bloomberg-fabricates-u-s-housing-numbers?source=feed#comment-740744 740744
But does now matter, because all you have to do is be 25% or 50% and it scares the hell our of me. It should scare everyone.

I am as defensive as I have ever been for a week plus.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:55:19 -0500
But does now matter, because all you have to do is be 25% or 50% and it scares the hell our of me. It should scare everyone.

I am as defensive as I have ever been for a week plus.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170439-a-low-price-to-book-stock-highway-holdings?source=feed#comment-740498 740498 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:07:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169396-the-next-step-in-the-bank-implosion-cycle?source=feed#comment-738897 738897
Any info or links would be appreciated?]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:53:03 -0500
Any info or links would be appreciated?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170235-market-spooked-today-but-panic-attack-is-likely-temporary?source=feed#comment-738243 738243
not trying to be cute, seriously that is a flawed number and has has been for years

it gets manipulated to whatever it needs to say through revisions


On Oct 30 05:52 PM drewriders wrote:

> Look at the history of the market. Unless leading economic indicators
> start going negative or the monthly job situation suddenly starts
> to get worse we are moving higher from here long term. 'panic selling',
> if it occurs at all, is if we have positive job growth in the next
> six months and it starts to turn largely negative again. THEN you
> have to worry about retesting the March lows, but it will only be
> temporarily.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 09:45:17 -0400
not trying to be cute, seriously that is a flawed number and has has been for years

it gets manipulated to whatever it needs to say through revisions


On Oct 30 05:52 PM drewriders wrote:

> Look at the history of the market. Unless leading economic indicators
> start going negative or the monthly job situation suddenly starts
> to get worse we are moving higher from here long term. 'panic selling',
> if it occurs at all, is if we have positive job growth in the next
> six months and it starts to turn largely negative again. THEN you
> have to worry about retesting the March lows, but it will only be
> temporarily.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169793-success-factors-going-for-break-even-rather-than-revenue-growth?source=feed#comment-738073 738073 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 01:26:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169810-a-cautious-look-at-where-markets-are-headed?source=feed#comment-738072 738072 you nailed it in my opinion

On Oct 29 10:06 AM pdtor wrote:

> Downturn could morph into something more serious,as so many players
> are gameing the market,especially the banks and hedge funds. It
> could be sudden and vicious, and test the lows of Nov. 08.Just a
> guess, holding onto my $$$ to buy.I expect $$$ to go up, as a save
> haven, gold and energy, commodities to go down. Loooking for a very
> volitile 3 mo.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 01:22:31 -0400 you nailed it in my opinion

On Oct 29 10:06 AM pdtor wrote:

> Downturn could morph into something more serious,as so many players
> are gameing the market,especially the banks and hedge funds. It
> could be sudden and vicious, and test the lows of Nov. 08.Just a
> guess, holding onto my $$$ to buy.I expect $$$ to go up, as a save
> haven, gold and energy, commodities to go down. Loooking for a very
> volitile 3 mo.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169823-the-best-trades-could-be-the-ones-not-entered?source=feed#comment-738063 738063 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 01:05:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169818-redux-future-s-p-returns-could-be-extraordinary?source=feed#comment-738060 738060 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:56:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169861-aflac-the-duck-bounces-back?source=feed#comment-738058 738058
I did not wake up until $20, but loaded up between 17-20 area. have trimmed slightly to cover some of my costs and lock in a profit. But whats left is going in the vault for many years, hopefully decades.

Again, very nice on that $11 area, that's beautiful.


On Oct 30 03:49 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

> "Load up when the shares were at $11." That's the kind of thing Warren
> Buffett would have done, at least with GEICO. But then, you and I
> aren't Buffett.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:46:49 -0400
I did not wake up until $20, but loaded up between 17-20 area. have trimmed slightly to cover some of my costs and lock in a profit. But whats left is going in the vault for many years, hopefully decades.

Again, very nice on that $11 area, that's beautiful.


On Oct 30 03:49 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

> "Load up when the shares were at $11." That's the kind of thing Warren
> Buffett would have done, at least with GEICO. But then, you and I
> aren't Buffett.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169119-are-pnc-s-account-gimmicks-going-too-far?source=feed#comment-734801 734801 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:13:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169245-janet-tavakoli-goldman-cfo-may-have-lied-about-aig?source=feed#comment-734796 734796 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:09:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169396-the-next-step-in-the-bank-implosion-cycle?source=feed#comment-734791 734791
Any thoughts on how the coming FASB rules will affect the top banks?

Plus thoughts on the exposure that derivatives forced to exchange would bring (Same as market to market?)

Also comments on the dark pools and their being pried open? Who are the winners and loser? Will it bring broad based selling, while it can still be done in secrecy?

Not simple topics and a lot of questions in those 3 above, but your thoughts would be appreciated.]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:03:59 -0400
Any thoughts on how the coming FASB rules will affect the top banks?

Plus thoughts on the exposure that derivatives forced to exchange would bring (Same as market to market?)

Also comments on the dark pools and their being pried open? Who are the winners and loser? Will it bring broad based selling, while it can still be done in secrecy?

Not simple topics and a lot of questions in those 3 above, but your thoughts would be appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168890-inflation-vs-deflation-battle-hits-key-inflection-point?source=feed#comment-733593 733593
We are at a huge inflection point. I have been arguing that deflation is still in the works for several more years (admit that inflation is coming eventually). Friends and family think I am nuts.

Heavily short at 1083 in the S&P. That was my 50% reracement area.]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:42:16 -0400
We are at a huge inflection point. I have been arguing that deflation is still in the works for several more years (admit that inflation is coming eventually). Friends and family think I am nuts.

Heavily short at 1083 in the S&P. That was my 50% reracement area.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168694-dow-s-52-week-high-hasn-t-been-confirmed?source=feed#comment-729771 729771
Price advertises, time regulates, volume validates. We are going lower in my opinion.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:42:23 -0400
Price advertises, time regulates, volume validates. We are going lower in my opinion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168636-nyse-the-case-for-a-new-benchmark?source=feed#comment-729637 729637 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:44:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168272-dollar-and-stocks-still-moving-in-opposite-directions?source=feed#comment-729546 729546
This can be very dangerous. If trading firms are using short dollars as their leverage, watch out. Even a small uptick in dollar strength, especially on a relative strength basis will cause almost every other asset to crash lower.

No, I do not beleive that the dollar will strengthen price wise. But, all other asset classes can come lower to it. There are many ways for the dollar to have a relative strength increase, while actually going now where in price.

Here are a few scenarios:

*dollar could look up, but really is not, is just that other currencies are down that day
*Dollar can be down, with other currencies down just not as much, so the dollar is still gaining purchasing power, would show in commodities prices moving lower, even though the $$$ is lower that day
*the dollar could just sit still and other currencies sit unchanged, while commodity prices correct lower, in essence increasing purchasing power of the dollar without it moving
*deflation fears could return where everything collapses lower in price, while the dollar just sits flat or slightly lower and gains in purchasing power as the fear currency (people rush to it or hoard it, or simple stop selling it)

Well that is my thesis. I am actually very scared for the worlds markets. Rallies lead by commodity stocks never last or end well.

I am short the S&P, EFA and EEM with puts, the heaviest I have ever been, using long time frames DEC 2010 and June 2011. Still holding a basket of large stocks that generate their own capital and will survive. (PEP, GOOG, JNJ, UN, DHR as examples)

All just my opinion. No I am not some crackpot. Have been an investor for over 20 years. My philosophy is buy and hold, in the essence of Buffet and Lynch. But must admit this is the most scared/worried I have ever been for the world markets. There is a disconnect between valuation and actual economic fundamentals I have ever seen. (this will make the tech bubble look like nothing)

I am sounding the alarm against the dollar short trade for whatever that is worth. I have talked to all of my family in the last few weeks and shared my views and short positions.

Take my warning or ignore it. But you can never say you were not told.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:19:06 -0400
This can be very dangerous. If trading firms are using short dollars as their leverage, watch out. Even a small uptick in dollar strength, especially on a relative strength basis will cause almost every other asset to crash lower.

No, I do not beleive that the dollar will strengthen price wise. But, all other asset classes can come lower to it. There are many ways for the dollar to have a relative strength increase, while actually going now where in price.

Here are a few scenarios:

*dollar could look up, but really is not, is just that other currencies are down that day
*Dollar can be down, with other currencies down just not as much, so the dollar is still gaining purchasing power, would show in commodities prices moving lower, even though the $$$ is lower that day
*the dollar could just sit still and other currencies sit unchanged, while commodity prices correct lower, in essence increasing purchasing power of the dollar without it moving
*deflation fears could return where everything collapses lower in price, while the dollar just sits flat or slightly lower and gains in purchasing power as the fear currency (people rush to it or hoard it, or simple stop selling it)

Well that is my thesis. I am actually very scared for the worlds markets. Rallies lead by commodity stocks never last or end well.

I am short the S&P, EFA and EEM with puts, the heaviest I have ever been, using long time frames DEC 2010 and June 2011. Still holding a basket of large stocks that generate their own capital and will survive. (PEP, GOOG, JNJ, UN, DHR as examples)

All just my opinion. No I am not some crackpot. Have been an investor for over 20 years. My philosophy is buy and hold, in the essence of Buffet and Lynch. But must admit this is the most scared/worried I have ever been for the world markets. There is a disconnect between valuation and actual economic fundamentals I have ever seen. (this will make the tech bubble look like nothing)

I am sounding the alarm against the dollar short trade for whatever that is worth. I have talked to all of my family in the last few weeks and shared my views and short positions.

Take my warning or ignore it. But you can never say you were not told.]]>