Seeking Alpha

where_are_the_customers_yachts?

where_are_the_customers_yachts?
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View where_are_the_customers_yachts?'s Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 3D Systems slips following critical WSJ column [View news story]
    The point that I believe these folks miss when they complain that DDD or SSYS are generating growth through acquisitions rather than "organic" growth is that this is still the early stage of industry accepting and using 3D printing. SSYS and DDD are both seeking to expand not only vertically but also horizontally within the additive manufacturing space. They are seeking to expand as much as possible in to the entire space so as to offer the most complete service they can. By offering a most complete solution to businesses of various levels as well as individuals, they are likely to "capture" clients and reap the rewards of repeat customers, as well as presenting a barrier to other companies coming and offering a competing service, even for part of the process. If a customer gets into a DDD product, that customer is more likely to use the DD provided services rather than seek alternative services which may or may not work as seamlessly as the 3D provided product. At least that is the theory I believe based upon having watched the development of computers and computer software.

    I fully agree that AT THE CURRENT TIME, additive manufacturing is a limited thing... but as it is more widely adopted, as more materials are developed, as more software is written, as more young tech geeks have access, as second and third and fourth generation printers are available, ... the whole area will grow by leaps and bounds. Those companies who occupy the space now and seek to increase their footprint will be the ones who are more likely to dominate in the future.

    At the current time, it is unreasonable to expect "mass production" of 3D items given the print speeds. The current use of 3D printing is not going to be in the area of mass produced items but rather in the space of individual items such as dental or other medical products which will be printed for a specific individual, prototypes or ( reasonably near future) rarely needed parts so as to eliminate the need for a supplier to maintain a large inventory... just print as needed. Perhaps in the future the speed of 3D printing will rise to the level where mass production is an issue, but this is not where 3D printing will have utility now.

    Further, the complaints about the home users only being able to make little, relatively insignificant things is not that important to me. The real growth of 3D printing will be in the metals area, particularly for prototype development and for replacement parts.

    I do not know where it will all end up... with DDD or SSYS dominating or sharing or a third major company developing. I do believe that it will end up with one or two major companies dominating the space and receiving significant revenue streams.
    Sep 6, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems And Stratasys: A Big Chase For Hidden Treasure In 3-D Printing Industry [View article]
    @ 3d Print Investor ... having read some of your posts and articles, I would value your opinion. I know little about the actual process of 3D metal printing and have read how Arcam uses an electron beam rater than laser sintering (ala XONE) and have read how Arcam prints in a vacuum. Perhaps it is my misunderstanding, but I had thought that the vacuum was needed because it was the electron beam, yet I recently read that XONE is working with Ipsen - a maker of vacuum furnaces. Is the vacuum a common element to the two types of printing or does this mean that XONE is looking at more than just laser sintering? I know this is a little off topic, but I am trying to get a sense of the various technologies and how they work, not simply technical and momentum analysis of stock prices. If you could shed some light or at least point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it.

    As an "on topic" point, I think that I have read that Arcam has now sold three or four new machines above the 12 that they referred to in the last earning conference call. Is this correct? If so, it represents a roughhly 25 to 30% increase in the number of machines delivered/ordered - which should help to continue the overall earnings/performance.
    Sep 2, 2013. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D printer makers fly higher following Citi's coverage launches [View news story]
    Wong expects the 3D printing market to triple in 5 years, yet sets his price targets for DDD at roughly 15% higher than it is trading now and for SSYS at roughly 13% higher.

    Why is it that I rarely believe that these guys have crystal balls?
    Aug 26, 2013. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Continues To Deny The ExOne Flaws [View article]
    Given the very early stage that 3D printing is currently in, it is impossible to say which of the currently public companies will be "the" big dog. XONE is clearly focused on the high end of the market (as is Arcam) and Stratys and 3D are trying to position themselves more broadly. The valuations on these companies are not supported by the fundamentals, rather the valuations reflect an expectation of the future and the likelihood of each company coming to dominate its area. As I said above, I cannot predict which will become the big dog, so i am going long on all. I expect some spectacular results and some that may well not be. Hopefully the ones that are spectacular will more than compensate for those which are not.... and I do not necessarily plan on holding all equally for equal time periods.
    Aug 18, 2013. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Set To Make Investors Very Happy - Part 2 [View article]
    I am long on DDD and am positive on the long term prospects for DDD. Not only is 3D printing in its infancy, but DDD is doing the vertical and horizontal integration which will allow it to aggressively position itself as a "barrier to entry" for competitors in many areas. That said, when I look at the magnitude of the loss of momentum in the stock price precipitated by missing earnings estimates by .02, I am left with the feeling that it will take a little while for the quarterly results to "suprise" on the upside and return the stock price to the incredible momentum it has recently enjoyed. At the kinds of valuations that DDD (and the other 3D printing stocks) have shown, the power of expectation of future performance cannot be overestimated. The increased investment in research is going to pay off, it is more a matter of when and not if. That said, I may wait a while to increase my position in DDD, or at least increase my position more slowly than I had planned up until this last earning report.

    Given that it is currently at $46.15 (or so), I expect it to be a bit higher than $100 in 2-3 years. That price would require a significant deterioration of growth from the past couple years. Reasonable to expect that the growth rate will slow a bit, but it would have to drop from a factor of 4.5 in two years to a factor of 2.1 in two years - quite a significant drop.
    Aug 17, 2013. 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Organovo Lawsuit [View article]
    Mukticat, I realize I am new to this board, but that aside, you and I disagree on a basic and fundamental issue here. You state that ONVO "might pick up a couple of hundred thousand from the liver thing" ... ok, your estimate. Based upon the idea that a functional liver tissue (rather than two dimensional petri dish liver cells) which can more readily detect problems with drugs, thus allowing drug companies to halt drug testing much earlier (and much cheaper) in the drug development cycle will allow for testing of more drugs, thus allowing for a greater number of drugs to make it to clinical trials at a cheaper price per drug, and thus a greater chance of developing an effective medication that will be approved, it is my opinion that ONVO is in a position to be able to earn significantly more than "a couple of hundred thousand". The R&D costs for a new drug are huge in large part because so very many new drugs do not even make it into the clinical trial stage and the functional liver tissue that can assist in terminating research into non-successful drugs at an earlier stage will be an important thing to reduce the number of dollars that are spent on research into drugs that will never be fully developed. The cost savings will be remarkable and ONVO will be in a position to be rewarded for that.

    Secondly, the approval issue is a bit of a red herring at this point in time. IF the liver tissue can be shown to function in a manner more closely resembling or actually equivalently with actual liver tissue and survive long enough to allow for drug testing, the drug development companies will be all over this. It is not an issue of approval, as it is the drug that will be approved, and not on the basis of the testing using the ONVO liver tissue to help determine whether or not a drug is further developed to the point of clinical trials. The ONVO liver tissue is only one step in the development process of the drug, and it will be used as an elimination factor, not an approval factor - for the drug.

    Now, if you would like to talk about approval for bioprinted organs for implantation, that is another issue. The amount that ONVO "might pick up" will be substantially more than the amount from functioning liver tissue .. and in my opinion, substantially more than "a couple of hundred thousand".

    Absolutely ONVO is currently trading on some factual basis and a lot of hype and blue sky. There is going to be a lot of volatility, allowing for traders to jump in and out. Good luck! I do not spend that much time glued to the computer, nor do I believe that I will be able to get the inside info in a timely manner to allow me to effectively trade the short term bumps and dips. As a long term focus, ONVO is certainly a stock with a potential to explode on the basis of positive developments. It could happen, and then again, it wont be the first time I placed some money into a stock with a long term story that did.. or did not work out. Just like some of the sudden breaks (up or down) can work against one with a short term time frame.

    Good luck to you in your market timing, and I hope for the best in my longer term vision for ONVO
    Aug 13, 2013. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Organovo Lawsuit [View article]
    hmmm right now ONVO is pushing 4.90+ this is 20% (almost) above your 4.00 I, for one, am glad that I am not short ONVO expecting it to go to 4.00

    trading versus investing is a different game... I like to invest.. trading is much to fast for me and I believe that an investing strategy with a longer time perspective is better for me... you will do what works (or does not work so well) for you.

    disclosure ... long ONVO and a long time frame for me..

    good luck for your market timing and whatever else drives your short term decisions..
    Aug 6, 2013. 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearing Up Some Confusion On Organovo [View article]
    Patrick, perhaps I was not saying it as carefully as I might but I am not trying to say that there will actually be organ printing in 10 years or less. What I am trying to say is that I believe that there will be significant progress toward the capacity to print organs within 10 years and that the news of these advances will be a basis for stock price movements because of the expectation of printing organs - as well as the general publicity boost that will be connected. For those who prefer to approach the market on a short-term trading basis, there will be lots of up and down action where you can make or lose a lot of money. I doubt that the average "investor" who trades in the short term is going to be in a position to get valuable information in a timely manner. For those who prefer to approach the market as a long term investment, the rapid movement is of no real concern. The long term expectation is what is driving the company stock in the longer term. My long term expectations for ONVO are quite high. I will try to acquire more shares over time on dips, but I am not going to worry too much about either having to find the dip to buy on or tolerate the short term decrease in value that is a dip.
    Aug 4, 2013. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearing Up Some Confusion On Organovo [View article]
    Patrick, I too am long on ONVO (and other 3D companies) and I pick up more shares from time to time as finances allow. There are competitors to ONVO, just not publicly traded companies, so for now, ONVO is the only bioprinting company in play. Printing organs may or may not be within your 10 year horizon - I personally believe that there will be significant progress in less than 10 years and it will be the expectations that will drive the stock price higher. Just think back about 20 years to the buzz about GERON (GERN) when they were able to identify changes in the telemerase tail on DNA - a phenomenal and unsustainable run up in the price. Thus, I agree that it will be a roller coaster ride, but a long term chart will look low on the left side and high on the right with a fair amount of bumpiness. While waiting for the full organ development other applications are almost certain to be income producing well before that. The ability to create tissues such as liver for drug testing is one that I think will pay rewards much much sooner.
    Jul 25, 2013. 09:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9 Comments
9 Likes