DaveinHackensack's Comments

Greenlight Capital: Cautious over Q2

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:14:52 -0500

FYI, I covered that BAGL short Friday at $10.05, for a 27% profit. I found the stock initially using the screener that's on shortscreen.com/

Weekly Summary of Thoughts

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:08:10 -0500

Why not start? You solicit donations on your site; this would be a way for your readers to compensate you while getting something else in return.

Weekly Summary of Thoughts

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:09:27 -0500

Mark,

OT, but I sent you an e-mail last week asking if you’d like to become an affiliate for site I just launched, and, by doing so, offer your readers a discount on membership to the site. In the event my e-mail got stuck in your spam file, I’m mentioning this here.

The site is shortscreen.com ( shortscreen.com/ ), and it offers tools and ideas for short sellers, including a screener based on the Altman Z-Score model (actually, on that model and the Z”-Score version). I think it might be of interest to those of your readers who short stocks as part of their overall portfolio strategy.

If you agree, here is the scoop on the affiliate program: ( shortscreen.com/become... ).

KIT Digital's FeedRoom Acquisition: Lots of Potential, Lots Of Questions

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 12:41:49 -0400

I shorted this at $11.55 yesterday.

Greenlight Capital: Cautious over Q2

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 04:11:52 -0400

I shorted BAGL a couple of weeks ago, at $13.78. Click the link if you want to see my rationale for that.

Companies Rated Triple-A

Sun, 16 Aug 2009 00:17:57 -0400

You seem to be confusing the Altman Z-Score with the credit ratings assigned by the rating agencies. If you run the Altman Z-Score Model on Apple, you'll find the model shows it to be in excellent shape financially. Apple doesn't get a triple-A rating from the rating agencies because they only rate companies that issue debt.

On Mar 14 03:17 PM martyg wrote:

> so apple computer is not on the list because it has no debt (zero)
> and it has over $26 billion in cash. they must be packing the furniture
> and staring bankruptcy right in the face within 2 years.

11 Stocks Selling Below Cash

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:21:18 -0500

USEG, a stock I've mentioned on my site a few times, is selling for less than net cash at today's closing price. Yahoo! Finance shows $70.31 million in cash, and $14.15 million in debt for USEG, with a market cap of $53 million.

Deflation, Inflation, Rinse and Repeat

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 23:25:05 -0400

When, within the next 24 months, would you suggest starting to short Treasury bonds?

Where Are Cash-Rich Companies Hoarding Their Money?

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 08:51:49 -0400

"Banks are going under, and the FDIC only insures deposits of up to $250K—they raised limits as part of the mega-bailout. Treasuries are looking less and less attractive with every intervention/ liability the Feds add to the US balance sheet."

What about investing it in TIPS or in the commercial paper of strong, non-financial companies (e.g., UTX)?

@VIC: Unprecedented Value

Sat, 11 Oct 2008 01:52:32 -0400

If these managers weren't buying anything -- if they were forced to sell even, due to clients pulling their money out -- do you think they would admit that?

@VIC: A Radically Different Context for Value Was Going On Outside

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:21:41 -0400

"So, at what point do we find "value"?"

One idea that comes to mind from reading Vitaliy Katsenelson's thesis about secular range-bound/bear markets: instead of considering a stock a value because it trades at a discount to market-average P/E multiples, look at what the market average P/E multiples were at the end of previous range-bound/bear markets. For example, after the range bound market ended in about 1950, the one year trailing P/E ratio on the S&P was 7x. So, theoretically, if you could find a stock trading at 7x today, and you thought that company's earnings were sustainable (a key point), that might be a value.

The Beginning of the Endgame for Monetary Policy, Redux

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:05:53 -0400

The key cause for optimism here is the resilience of the U.S. dollar and the demand for U.S. Treasury securities. That gives the government the ability to borrow at low rates to buy up distressed assets, provide more fiscal stimulus to the economy, provide direct capital injections into key companies, etc. Our debt as a percentage of GDP compares favorably to that of some other first world countries.

After the current crisis dissipates, and the flight to quality recedes, the bond market may drive up the U.S. government's borrowing costs, but this can be ameliorated if we pass reforms that put our entitlement spending on a sustainable trajectory.

The Beginning of the Endgame for Monetary Policy, Redux

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 20:58:40 -0400

"Did we ever have a financial crisis before we took the dollar off the Gold Standard?"

Only about once every decade or so. The 19th Century was full of them. We even had a populist presidential candidate (William Jennings Bryan) blame one of these financial crises (a wave of deflation) on the gold standard.

@VIC: Mohnish Pabrai the Dhandho Investor - Interesting Times, Interesting Opportunities

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:07:15 -0400

To be fair, Pabrai did well in the 2000-2002 bear market, although he has gotten his head handed to him on a number of stocks over the last year and a half or so.

Cash Is King?

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 13:16:38 -0400

David,

As a commenter on my site noted when I quoted from your piece here, your arithmetic appears to be wrong here -- USEG's enterprise value, according to your numbers above, should be negative $2 million, not negative $20 million. Good post otherwise.

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:46:07 -0400

"According to Jim Rogers, the famous commodities guru, commodity prices move in cycles of about 18 years, and since the current bull market started at 2002, he expects it to last until about 2020."

Jim Rogers has said the current secular bull market in commodities started in 1999, not 2002, and I don't recall him definitively saying he expects it to last until 2020. He's usually more careful in his statements. He has said that, historically, the shortest such secular bull market in commodities last 15 years, and the longest lasted 23. If that history is a guide, the current secular bull market could last until 2014 or longer.

Has Exxon Topped?

Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:51:18 -0400

XOM's reserves grew by 1% in '07, if memory serves, despite the expropriation by Chavez. I wouldn't get too concerned about a quarterly decline in production. The company is investing -- prudently -- in growing reserves and increasing production, and it has plenty of cash to do so. XOM at these prices probably has about 5% downside versus about 20%-25% upside over the next 12 months. It remains one of the best-run companies in the world. Its E&P business can benefit from an increase in oil prices, and its plastics and refining business can make money when oil goes down.

KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:36:41 -0400

Jeff,

That wasn't a quarterly dividend, it was an annual one. There are no plans, as far as I know, for KSW to initiate a regular quarterly dividend.

Authentic: A Real Buy at Sub-IPO Price

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 19:05:15 -0400

If SeekingAlpha lets you edit this, perhaps you could add a brief description of Authentic's business. You may have already done so in a previous post, but for those who haven't read it, a brief summary would be helpful.

Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:38:25 -0400

Although the company now has a surcharge to offset high steel prices, I don't believe this surcharge applies to orders in Manitowoc's multi-billion dollar backlog. That would be a concern for me: the company sold giant cranes for $X when the cost of the needed steel was $Y; now it has to build those cranes when the cost of steel is $2Y. Normally, a large backlog of business is a bullish indicator, but here it's something of a liability, since MTW's CEO has said the company doesn't renegotiate the contracts in its backlog.

Buying Berkshire

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 09:54:14 -0400

Imagine what Berkshire would be trading at today had Buffett dumped all of his housing and financial stocks before the burst of the credit/real estate bubble. Judging from the posts on GuruFocus over the last couple of years, it seems like a fair number of individual investors got burned buying those stocks simply because they were trading for less than what Buffett paid for them.

Perhaps I'm alone in this opinion, but I think Berkshire would be better off if Buffett stopped investing in publicly traded stocks. Since he has constraints on his stock investing due to Berkshire's size, and since he himself has acknowledged that Berkshire will probably generate higher returns from its wholly owned companies going forward, why not just focus on those and special situations?

That said, I still own a few of the b-shares, and am fairly bullish on them. I think we'll see an upturn after hurricane season is over.

Barrett Business Services Earnings Review

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:58:32 -0400

Scott,

I don't recall any guidance beyond Q3, which was, as you know, raised.

Steve,

The CEO is usually quite entertaining, and fond of salty language. He's recovering from having his spleen taken out, so he was a little more laid back than usual on today's call.

BTW, if you like cash-rich Magic Formula stocks, check out HSII, or in another industry, KSW.

Barrett Business Services Earnings Review

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:20:37 -0400

I wasn't expecting earnings like that, but that was a positive surprise. Listening to the conference call now: looks like the company signed about twice as many new clients as it lost (or got rid of) in Q2. They also spent $4 million buying back stock. I'm still down big on this one, but I'm content to continue holding it. Solid, well-run company.

Barrett Business Services: Jumping in Ahead of Earnings

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 11:49:41 -0400

Wow, those earnings were quite a surprise. Looking forward to the conference call.

Barrett Business Services: Jumping in Ahead of Earnings

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:22:05 -0400

"I believe the upcoming earnings report could help either a) stoke fears that the company is unable to rebound in a challening economy or b) show that the most recent quarterly earnings was just a blip on an otherwise impressive run that began in 2003."

You may want to listen to Barrett's last conference call again. Barrett's CEO is a straight-shooter, and he was pretty clear about the effect of the California economy on the company. More than half of the company's business has been from California, and as you might be aware, California's economy has been hammered by the housing bust. Barrett's CEO estimated on the last conference call that the unemployment rate in CA was 7.5%.

I wrote an "Anatomy of a Mistake" post about how I bought BBSI at the wrong time on site, if you want to check it out.

Soup Target; Cramer's Mad Money (7/22/08)

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:10:09 -0400

When did Cramer recommend buying WM? He's had the whole board of that bank on his Wall of Shame.

12 Stocks Ben Graham Would Like Here

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:29:46 -0400

Barrett is a solid company that I bought too early. If you want to read why, click on my website and then search for "anatomy of a mistake".

Exxon vs. the S&P 500

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:35:23 -0400

This hardly qualifies as an article; it's an observation without any attempt at insight.

XOM is, of course, an integrated major, but people sometimes overstate the impact of its refining business. Last year, 23.6% of XOM's earnings came from downstream operations -- a significant percentage, to be sure, but not enough to keep XOM's upstream business from driving profits to record highs.

Ben S. is right: XOM will probably report blowout earnings. This will start the process of upward earnings estimate revisions, but even based on the current '09 estimates XOM looks cheap: it's trading at less than 8x those earnings.

And, of course, XOM has $31 billion in net cash and a higher credit rating (triple-A) than most governments.

What We Can Do To Reverse the Oil Crisis

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:36:56 -0400

"which is interesting as the same Conservative pundits who take every opportunity to say that taxes are destroying the American way of life seem not to be bothered that rising energy prices represent a $5,365 tax on every single U.S. household"

To be fair (which clearly wasn't your intention), most conservative pundits have been pounding the table for a long time about the need to expand domestic energy exploration and production. Most of the opponents of opening more federal lands and waters to drilling have been on the Left.

Bush has been blamed for a lot of things, but it's tough to blame him for high commodity prices when he was advocating policies to increase our energy supply years ago, and was blocked by Congressional Democrats (with the help of some liberal Republicans as well, including McCain).

Optimal Group Extends Option Expiration Date

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:37:38 -0400

How is iRobot a competitor of OPMR? WowWee makes things like talking Elvis heads and flying toys; iRobot makes vacuuming robots and IED disposal robots.

Also, the "issues" you cite, "Executive management salaries, DOJ fines" cry out for some elaboration.