Pangaea

53 Comments

    • Four Ways to Protect Money During the Fallout [view article]
      I too am unimpressed with the dividend funds reco'd here... The statement "dividend-paying stocks tend to be more stable than their non-dividend paying brethren - particularly during rocky stock markets" seems almost comical when the two "excellent investment candidates" recommended here are off their highs by far more than the market at large.

      In addition, the Alpine fund is panned as "gimmicky" by Kiplingers:

      www.kiplinger.com//col...

      Try again?
      Oct 09 12:19 AM
    • Sentiment Review: Bearishness Is Back to Extremes [view article]
      BUT, and it's a big but - the advance/decline lines and the number of stocks above their 50 DMA are still WELL above historical "bottoming" levels:

      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NAAD&p=D&yr=...
      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NYAD&p=D&yr=...

      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$SPXA50R&p=D&...
      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NAA50R&p=D&y...


      Still potentially a long way to go down there on price...

      In other words, while options-related measures (VIX etc) may be starting to approach extreme levels, it appears that equities themselves could still have a lot of work to do on the downside.
      Sep 15 01:26 AM
    • Government Bailouts Stop with Lehman [view article]
      Source Close To Tsy: No Govt Money To Be Used In Any Lehman Deal -CNBC
      Sep 12 09:08 AM
    • Government Bailouts Stop with Lehman [view article]
      Good call, this just out:

      Source Close To Tsy: Mkt Has Had Time To Prepare For Current Situation -CNBC

      9/12/2008 9:04:22 AM

      Sep 12 09:07 AM
    • Has the Economy Killed the Health Food Craze? [view article]
      Agree with this. Definitely folks have been cutting back around the edges. But the bigger picture is that it's not a "craze" - it's a way of life, and it's been my family's way of live for 20 years...

      So two decades is secular, not cyclical. It will come back, but will take time, as with everything.

      Sep 11 09:20 AM
    • The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash? [view article]
      PS - Interesting point coming out of that. Because FNM/FRE borrow from the government to loan out to homebuyers, trying to pocket the spread (after losses and costs), who is actually on the hook if they implode and the mortgage market completely collapses? Who doesn't get paid back?

      That's right - Uncle Sam, meaning (still) you and I... In other words, the government is trying to save its own ass here as much as anything or anyone else. It's a no-win situation - damned if you do, damned if you don't.
      Sep 08 10:53 AM
    • The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash? [view article]
      LOL , I think you need to work on your calculations a bit more... If their total combined mortgage debt is ~$5 trillion, how are you going to be making "$2.2T - $2.7T per year"?

      Also don't forget they only make money on the spread, not the entire coupon. Try again.

      Hussman thinks taxpayer cost is in hundreds of billions:

      Oh, This Is Not Good
      Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment
      September 8, 2008
      John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
      hussmanfunds.com/wmc/w...

      Sep 08 10:46 AM
    • Bear Market In Its Final Stages? [view article]
      I agree with the last sentence of the last commenter - I would feel a lot more comfortable about holding anything long-term if we saw a true washout in the market at irresistable levels, rather than repeated government interventions and synthetic/engineered bottoms (i.e., Jan/Mar/Jul/Sep) that keep getting weaker in strength and volume.

      Also I'm not sure what you're using for figuring "S&P 500 valuations"... TTM SPX P/E is in fact pretty high.
      Sep 08 03:28 AM
    • Unemployment Rates, Recession Periods and Stock Market Prices [view article]
      I'm not sure what this first commenter above is saying with the June and August different months. The data is clearly for August in both cases.

      www.bls.gov/news.relea...
      Sep 08 03:17 AM
    • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
      I've really gotta thank you again for this article. A nearly perfect contrarian piece, this told me the oil top was coming within just a matter of weeks... and reliably it did.

      As I posted above when it came out, "If I've ever read an article that screamed, 'This time it's different!,' this one was it." Thanks again, it has helped some great trades.

      Sep 05 01:23 AM
    • Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
      Gaucho, you could equally argue that Nintendo is a specific product story.
      Sep 03 11:45 AM
    • Ignore Stock Market Volatility [view article]
      So are you saying there's no such thing as bull and bear markets, and regardless, we should ignore them?

      If so, then I think "ignorance" (ignore, as you preach) is only a strategy for the very longest-term of participants...
      Aug 30 08:48 AM
    • Mindless Churn in Trendless Market [view article]
      Sounds like you need a Trading Staycation...

      www.minyanville.com/ar...
      Aug 28 11:24 AM
    • The Last Days of the Long Investor? [view article]
      Why do you say everything is random? Why do you say nothing works off logic?

      The market is based in large part on emotion. Emotion is inherently illogical - and combined with a year where we have a record number of crises - leads to large swings and overreactions.

      But step back and look at the larger picture... Why do you think the general trend is wrong, given we are in a global deflationary/recession... environment after what can only be descrived as the *largest bubble of our lifetimes*?

      I'm having a great year - trading. (not "gambling," at least for me) But if it's consistent uptrends you are looking for, you might be in the wrong decade:

      100 Year Dow Jones Industrials Chart
      bigpicture.typepad.com...

      In other words, it may not be that your style is wrong, it's that the times and market right now are not suited to your style. Step back and take a look at where we are in a 100-year view, rather than the micro day-to-day or even month-to-month. But long-term buy-and-hold will come back one day, but it might not be for a number of years more, and until that point your choices are to be incredibly patient or wait and sit it out.


      Aug 14 03:30 PM
    • Was July 15th the Bear Market Low? [view article]
      Thanks dmk. But since the WLI is now heading back down for an even deeper downswing, does that mean we're looking ten months ahead, or three?
      Aug 08 04:14 PM
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