Pangaea

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    • Wed Oct 29th 09:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Japanese Yen Has Huge One-Day Decline; Helps Market Rally
      "This was the largest one-day decline since Jan. 1974, a month that touched off a huge rally in the stock market."


      True but a bit misleading: Yes, there was a ~10% bear-market rally in January 1974 but that was it, as the market was about 40% lower nine months later.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 23:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Too Early to Call a Bottom - Buying Anyway
      Why do people buy equities when they seem to clearly believe the bottom is still a considerable distance away? Is it just anxiousness or impatience?

      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 11:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Ways the Global Economy Is Rebounding
      "the market is gradually moving from panic to resignation that we're entering a time more based in the reality of our actual economic productivity than a giddy fantasy greedfest, where it feels like money is growing on trees"


      Correct. It's been growing on trees for a quarter-century now, basically since Ronald Reagan.

      So where does the money come from now? Who refoliates the trees and how?

      Did you know that Michael Milken at the height of his career (during those Reagan years) was leveraged only 4-to-1?
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 01:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Not Your Grandfather's Great Depression
      Agree. I don't care if which party you're from, but it seems a bit disingenuous to already be blaming a future president, doesn't it?

      Blame for where we are should lie where it belongs, for actions already taken (or not taken)... Odd how I didn't see our current president's name in there anywhere.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 13th 04:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Today's Situation: Not a Great Depression
      Not saying we are or aren't headed for another depression, but I agree 100% with jlounsbury59's comment - this is the kind of stuff that Dennis Kneale loves to spout.

      (You know, the pollyanna on CNBC that's been wrong every step of the way because he's looking in the rearview and not comparing apples and oranges.)

      What's more, regarding looking at figures back then vs. now, you do know they dramatically changed how they've measured all those factors since then, don't you??


      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 00:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Ways to Protect Money During the Fallout
      I too am unimpressed with the dividend funds reco'd here... The statement "dividend-paying stocks tend to be more stable than their non-dividend paying brethren - particularly during rocky stock markets" seems almost comical when the two "excellent investment candidates" recommended here are off their highs by far more than the market at large.

      In addition, the Alpine fund is panned as "gimmicky" by Kiplingers:

      www.kiplinger.com//col...

      Try again?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 15th 01:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sentiment Review: Bearishness Is Back to Extremes
      BUT, and it's a big but - the advance/decline lines and the number of stocks above their 50 DMA are still WELL above historical "bottoming" levels:

      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NAAD&p=D&yr=...
      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NYAD&p=D&yr=...

      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$SPXA50R&p=D&...
      stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NAA50R&p=D&y...


      Still potentially a long way to go down there on price...

      In other words, while options-related measures (VIX etc) may be starting to approach extreme levels, it appears that equities themselves could still have a lot of work to do on the downside.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 09:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Government Bailouts Stop with Lehman
      Source Close To Tsy: No Govt Money To Be Used In Any Lehman Deal -CNBC
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 09:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Government Bailouts Stop with Lehman
      Good call, this just out:

      Source Close To Tsy: Mkt Has Had Time To Prepare For Current Situation -CNBC

      9/12/2008 9:04:22 AM

      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Economy Killed the Health Food Craze?
      Agree with this. Definitely folks have been cutting back around the edges. But the bigger picture is that it's not a "craze" - it's a way of life, and it's been my family's way of live for 20 years...

      So two decades is secular, not cyclical. It will come back, but will take time, as with everything.

      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 10:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash?
      PS - Interesting point coming out of that. Because FNM/FRE borrow from the government to loan out to homebuyers, trying to pocket the spread (after losses and costs), who is actually on the hook if they implode and the mortgage market completely collapses? Who doesn't get paid back?

      That's right - Uncle Sam, meaning (still) you and I... In other words, the government is trying to save its own ass here as much as anything or anyone else. It's a no-win situation - damned if you do, damned if you don't.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 10:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash?
      LOL , I think you need to work on your calculations a bit more... If their total combined mortgage debt is ~$5 trillion, how are you going to be making "$2.2T - $2.7T per year"?

      Also don't forget they only make money on the spread, not the entire coupon. Try again.

      Hussman thinks taxpayer cost is in hundreds of billions:

      Oh, This Is Not Good
      Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment
      September 8, 2008
      John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
      hussmanfunds.com/wmc/w...

      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 03:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Market In Its Final Stages?
      I agree with the last sentence of the last commenter - I would feel a lot more comfortable about holding anything long-term if we saw a true washout in the market at irresistable levels, rather than repeated government interventions and synthetic/engineered bottoms (i.e., Jan/Mar/Jul/Sep) that keep getting weaker in strength and volume.

      Also I'm not sure what you're using for figuring "S&P 500 valuations"... TTM SPX P/E is in fact pretty high.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 03:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Unemployment Rates, Recession Periods and Stock Market Prices
      I'm not sure what this first commenter above is saying with the June and August different months. The data is clearly for August in both cases.

      www.bls.gov/news.relea...
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 01:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
      I've really gotta thank you again for this article. A nearly perfect contrarian piece, this told me the oil top was coming within just a matter of weeks... and reliably it did.

      As I posted above when it came out, "If I've ever read an article that screamed, 'This time it's different!,' this one was it." Thanks again, it has helped some great trades.

      View article »
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