Pangaea

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73 Comments

    • Wed Sep 3rd 11:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008
      Gaucho, you could equally argue that Nintendo is a specific product story.
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    • Sat Aug 30th 08:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ignore Stock Market Volatility
      So are you saying there's no such thing as bull and bear markets, and regardless, we should ignore them?

      If so, then I think "ignorance" (ignore, as you preach) is only a strategy for the very longest-term of participants...
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 11:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mindless Churn in Trendless Market
      Sounds like you need a Trading Staycation...

      www.minyanville.com/ar...
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    • Thu Aug 14th 15:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Last Days of the Long Investor?
      Why do you say everything is random? Why do you say nothing works off logic?

      The market is based in large part on emotion. Emotion is inherently illogical - and combined with a year where we have a record number of crises - leads to large swings and overreactions.

      But step back and look at the larger picture... Why do you think the general trend is wrong, given we are in a global deflationary/recession... environment after what can only be descrived as the *largest bubble of our lifetimes*?

      I'm having a great year - trading. (not "gambling," at least for me) But if it's consistent uptrends you are looking for, you might be in the wrong decade:

      100 Year Dow Jones Industrials Chart
      bigpicture.typepad.com...

      In other words, it may not be that your style is wrong, it's that the times and market right now are not suited to your style. Step back and take a look at where we are in a 100-year view, rather than the micro day-to-day or even month-to-month. But long-term buy-and-hold will come back one day, but it might not be for a number of years more, and until that point your choices are to be incredibly patient or wait and sit it out.


      View article »
    • Fri Aug 8th 16:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Was July 15th the Bear Market Low?
      Thanks dmk. But since the WLI is now heading back down for an even deeper downswing, does that mean we're looking ten months ahead, or three?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 10:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Highest Yielding Cash Products
      "Remember that in the short term, cash can indeed be king. But in the long term, cash is almost sure to lose purchasing power because of inflation."

      But any investment vehicle that actually loses money, such as stocks and housing in recent years, is sure to lose purchasing power even faster...

      In other words, this long period of retrenchment and deflation may well become a game of "see who can lose the least," rather than make the most. In other words, capital preservation is king.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 10:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Equities Party Over?
      It looks like today the Dow has broken that 1974 trendline, as it is back on its Jan-08 low...
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 23rd 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking
      Thanks for your analysis, and welcome. The charts didn't seem to come out very well on SeekingAlpha for some reason...? But I checked the version of this article on your website and they look fine there.

      Sure wish there was another place (online?) to pick up T2108 aside from Worden's software...

      Any thoughts on what the VIX is (isn't) doing of late, versus what it did earlier this year when the market was falling hard? Looks surprisingly complacent to me, but the puzzle is why...


      View article »
    • Wed Jun 18th 14:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      PPI: the Numbers behind the Numbers
      They say that, on average, raw materials account for only 10-15% of the cost of production, that most now is labor/service... Still, you'd have to think that eventually the spiralling higher of raw materials would eventually result in crimped margins, or inflation, or both. A true and full worldwide recession however, would significantly crimp demand, and thus reverse some of these effects. Ah, economics.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 17th 08:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Adobe Should Acquire On2 Technologies
      It's not a new topic, but as ever for Adobe you'd have to wonder, why buy the cow when you get the milk pretty much for free? Also Adobe definitely seems to be putting less emphasis on VP6 these days with heavy promotion of H.264. So I'm not sure it makes sense for Adobe from any perspective - especially financial, since as you point out On2 had losses larger then sales last quarter.

      For On2 I'm not so sure it would make sense either as they would probably rather be an independent provider for their other customers. In other words I'm not sure that Adobe all of the sudden becoming a provider of codecs like VC-1 would go over so well around the community. Adobe would also then be getting into the business of trying to sell products to competitors of theirs.

      So overall such a speculation sounds both messy and unlikely to me.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 16th 17:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Speculators Driving Up Commodity Prices? Hardly
      "Remember that index funds holding commodity futures add nothing to demand for the physical commodity. They never take physical delivery - they simply roll their contracts forward each month. That may drive up the price for commodity futures, but for the underlying commodity, I'm not so sure."


      Rolling forward contracts is neutral to demand and just serves as a "hold" for the contract that was already purchased.

      So why do you think "buy and hold" by an increasing number of investors is not impactful to the price??
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 16th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Preparing for a Double-Dip Recession
      You seem more to be talking about a double-dip correction than what your title says.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 13th 23:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recession to Inflation: Transitions Benefit the Dollar
      On the housing point, in that market's current condition it's rather unsettling to see mortgage rates zooming higher over the past month...

      bankrate.com/brm/graph...
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 13th 23:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ireland Rejects EU Treaty, and Euro Falls Hard
      On Michigan consumer confidence, we've already broken the 1990 low in the mid-60's -- the question now becomes, do we test/break the 1980 low at 51.7...

      Following the logic of the previous commenter, which I agree with, the answer would seem to be yes... and the question then becomes, where will the stock market be at that time.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 13th 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Bottom Here
      "I’m not saying we should rush in and put is all on the buy side but I’m ready to begin to move off our 80% cash position for the first time all year and put some capital to work. There are a lot of really good companies being given away right now and it’s time for us to flex our long-term investing muscles."


      How is one both "long-term" and "80% in cash"? Also getting involved "for the first time all year"?

      Nothing else about the merits of your call, but these aspects don't seem to add up.
      View article »
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