GKM

What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry?

Author claims he's buying yet has no disclosure? Sketchy at best. I love it when all that can be pointed to is the alleged global commodity bull run. Facts is facts right? LOL

JPMorgan: Why I'm Selling Short

Sir Templeton was a moron who was talking his own book. He didn't want investors using technical analysis and I wonder why...

Budh has it right on. The entry for the short isn't yet in my opinion.

The Rally was the Real Deal - Cramer's Mad Money (9/2/08)

For how I know this WASN'T the real deal, see above.

Another Week of No Money Supply Growth

That makes complete sense. The Fed is doing everything to bail out the banks who fed the crack/debt to the public and now will raise the long rates on that crack/debt so that history will continue to repeat itself. As long as Joe Public doesn't know the myriad ways he's getting screwed, all is well.

Chesapeake Energy Called the Market's Bluff

People don't think that nat gas can go down because the companies will simply shut in the wells. However, they don't understand the economics of the producers. Producers used to get less than $1 for gas not so long ago. In fact, when I worked in the nat gas industry there was once where producers were paying people to take gas from them in the spot market because of a quirk in the pipeline system (but only for a few days).

Producers, once they've sunk millions and billions into the production, have to flow the gas. At that point their variable costs are minimal and their fixed costs are huge. They will flow and take whatever price they can get. They'll keep flooding the market with gas until it is well below where people think it can go to. Even drilling is semi-variable in cost since compared to the overhead of other costs including debt, many companies will be forced to spend the money to drill to bring on gas at even ridiculously low prices because they need to service the debt.

Otherwise what's their alternative? Not pay the interest on the debt? Sit on the assets? Sell the assets at low prices because in a low nat gas price environment no one will pay up?

So BP's purchase of a stake in CHK is something for bulls to hang their hat on. Well Shell bought out Duvernay Oil right at the top of the market after several wobbly pops during Calgary Stampede. The big guys don't know what they're doing anymore than the little ones - or maybe less so.

The producers are boxing themselves into a corner again just like they've done many times before. Boom = bust.

Leaderless Japanese Stocks Continue To Suffer

If things were improving, the world's second largest economy's stock market would be improving right? Maybe just maybe therein lies a key.

Inequality and the Credit Crisis

I'm afraid the author has it wrong. We had inflation. That has ended. We're are in deflation. That too will end. It will end when Bernanke will begin cutting again to re-inflate and, as a consequence, will drive stagflation to completely crush the poor and middle class. The author will be right eventually but in this market timing is everything.

The Latest Changes to SeekingAlpha.com

FANTASTIC! My only complaint would have been the lack of the chronological article listing feature but since you've reinstated that - fugeddaboudit.

Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan

ME, I certainly do appreciate your tenacious attempts to educate us here. I wouldn't be able to do that calc simply because I don't have the raw data required nor the time and interest in programming the Monte Carlo simulation I envision would be definitive in overcoming the burden of proof.

Convergence without correlation is not possible for your purposes. Anything can converge against anything but you want there to be a reason (for which you have stated the substitutability of the two energy sources - as evidence by historical trends?) otherwise the spread is arbitrary. You must have negative correlation for your trade to work. I can't speak to spread margins but preservation of capital is imperative, I want trades that also give me more opportunity for success within my risk/reward parameters. If I trade oil and nat gas at the same time but separately, correlation is not at all necessary and in fact the lesser the correlation the better chance of success - as in modern portfolio theory.

In any event, best of luck with your strategy.

Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan

ME, I didn't say you have 3 risks, I said you have 3 variables for that one trade. There is a difference. However, you miss my point. You can spread anything against anything but why do that? Correlations can exist in anything but correlation doesn't necessarily equate to causality. Why not just spread nat gas against apples? You'll probably get the same/better result. There's plenty of supply of apples coming. I'll bet the spread is even more reliable.

Perhaps this will help you understand. You want to play the spread because you believe there to be a correlation of say 80%. I would play the two legs because there isn't 100% correlation. That way if I'm wrong about one there is a greater chance I'm right about the other. I can cut the loser and let the winner run. I think if you check the probabilities behind this and marry it with the risk/reward with appropriate stop/loss parameters, my strategy will win every time and by a large margin.

You'll probably say that there is no difference and if so then I can't help you. However, I would encourage you to ask Dennis Gartman how spreading oil and nat gas has worked out for him.

Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan

Why not trade the spread of apples against oranges next? I used to work in the natural gas industry and essentially there is no correlation in the near term for many reasons. Why dilute a trade with a spread? If you're bullish natural gas, then buy nat gas. If you are bearish oil, then sell oil. This way you only have two variables to worry about, otherwise you have 3. Never make trading more complicated than it has to be.

Bond Expert: Wednesday Wrap

So based on this, this is the scary scenario I had been expecting. The smart and fast money is going into paper in preparation for the coming deflation. This has been helpful John to know that the trades I've been planning to put on are the right ones. It also goes to affirm that generally the obvious trades are obviously wrong.

Bond Expert: Monday Wrap

As I suspected, the auction was well bid. Market is anticipating deflation - not inflation - for wrong or for right.

Five Struggling Dividend Stocks I'm Still Bullish On

Out of that list there is one that looks attractive. It may go to zero but could be an easy triple so the r/r is well worth it.

Advice to nyka: lite'n up, u'll live longa.

American Eagle: Down, or Cheap?

To me - based on the chart - it looks like AEO is going out of business at some point or at least back to a penny stock. There will be pops along the way but they will be opportunities to sell.