Seeking Alpha

Hardrock48

Hardrock48
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Hardrock48's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The U.S. Shale Oil Miracle Disappears [View article]
    If Intek was wrong once, they could be wrong again. Look folks, as a geologist I can tell you what we DON'T KNOW is a lot more than what we do about tight oil extraction. Pundits like Mr. Martenson predicted George Mitchel would go broke in the Barnet Shale, drilling in North Dakota was lunacy and Eagle Ford was just a gas play. The technology being used today is quantum leaps ahead of what it was three(3) years ago to extract oil and gas from tight geologic formations. Yes, decline rates are high but this is more like mining than conventional oil recovery. As the technology used to "crack the code" of highly variable and different geologic formations improves, more efficient recovery rates will emerge. Just look at the current ROR's in the Permian Basin...like 60%+. The Permian Basin technically recoverable reserves have not been fully understood and could potentially replace the lost barrels in the Monterey. And for those that point to reduced rig count and lower than expected Natural Gas production, I would only point out that you don't produce gas if there is insufficient pipeline capacity to take it away. That's why Bakken and Eagle Ford have thermal signatures off the chart as seen from space due to flaring of nat gas that has nowhere to go. And "rig efficiency" have jumped over 500% since 2007 in horizontal plays. Look at Southwestern Energy's shareholder presentations to get an idea of how efficient rig utilization has become. More efficient rig utilization means less rigs to produce more drill bit hydrocarbons.

    I am not loosing any sleep over this announcement and believe the US+Canada+Mexico will be energy independent by 2025. Too bad for the tree huggers. Their dream of $200/bbl oil making wind and solar economical just went up in a puff of.....gas!
    May 25 03:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impact Of U.S. Oil And Gas Shale Revolutions Wide-Reaching [View article]
    Thank you Jennifer for all your very insightful and thought provoking articles. How do you see the exploitation of shale oil and gas progressing in China (deep dry gas), India, Indonesia, Eastern Russian Siberia, Argentina and the other myriad places where tight oil & gas is thought to exist? Are there any good estimates out there which catalogue both technical recoverable resources and economically recoverable reserves in those places? Just pointing me in the right direction would be appreciated.
    Mar 15 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Consumers Accept An Aluminum Ford F-Series? [View article]
    I use my Ram 3500 for towing and a lot of people use their trucks in this way. A lighter truck is NOT always better. Less weight means less ground pressure and less traction on wet pavement, ice, snow, hills and dirt roads. How many out there know of people who put sand bags in the back of their pickups for increased traction. Weight = traction. Locomotives are designed that way to insure the wheels don't slip when going up a grade or on wet rails. For everyday non-commercial use, the aluminum truck concept is great but in a commercial or towing application I have my doubts.
    Jan 16 09:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lobbying fight to lift U.S. oil export battle gaining momentum [View news story]
    If the ban is lifted, then watch the E&P space. Upstream crude producers like ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Kodiak, EOG and Pioneer will take off. Refiners will see their crack spreads squeezed although in general, more crude will be produced. You may see a scenario where lighter, sweeter crude is exported and replaced by imports of heavy sour crude which the Gulf Coast refiners are configured to run.

    However, lifting the ban will be a Herculean effort. Seems memories of long gas lines linger in the American consciousness.
    Jan 8 11:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Phillips 66 Drop Down The Sand Hills And Southern Hills Pipelines To MLP In 2014? [View article]
    Michael, I was thinking of crude pipelines so you are correct. It would be interesting to see what DCP tells you.

    BTW...will you be at the RBN Energy School in March?
    Jan 5 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero: A Growth Investment [View article]
    I knew that...I wanted to see if Cristina did. She still hasn't replied
    Jan 1 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Alcoa Is A Buy [View article]
    During the Falklands War, a British warship, the Sheffield, was hit by an Argentine (made by France) Exocet missile. It had an aluminum superstructure. It burned like a roman candle and sunk. Aluminum will burn at extremely high temperatures which is why aluminum powder is used in incendiary devices. Don't look for aluminum commercial vessels in our lifetime. Steel is steel a much cheaper alternative and designing vessels with greater beam will translate into less draft. The new Panama canal locks will be designed to take these wider vessels in the future.
    Jan 1 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Phillips 66 Drop Down The Sand Hills And Southern Hills Pipelines To MLP In 2014? [View article]
    I believe pipeline operating costs range between <$1/BBL to $4+/BBL depending on pipeline length and product type (heavy crude is more expensive to pump than gasoline foe example due to viscosity issue). For those that don't know, a barrel has 42 gallons, not 55.
    Jan 1 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero: A Growth Investment [View article]
    Cristina...please clarify your statement..."The company expects to add new units in its Houston and Corpus Christi refineries. These two additional units are expected to start production by 2015 and support the existing refinery to maximize the production of gasoline and diesel with 90 million barrels per day, or Mbpd, and 70 Mbpd respectively".... The EIA stated that ..." In December 2012, the U.S. produced about 7.03 million barrels of crude oil per day and imported about 7.58 million barrels per day". How do you reconcile these two(2) statements?????
    Dec 31 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Phillips 66 Drop Down The Sand Hills And Southern Hills Pipelines To MLP In 2014? [View article]
    Michael, you say the revenue stream of the pipelines is $.06 -.10 per gallon. What is the operating cost in $cents per gallon? The net revenue after op ex is what you should be using for your cash flow revenue stream
    Dec 31 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Alcoa Is A Buy [View article]
    With the continued bifurcation of the upstream (mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting) and the downstream business (aerospace, automotive..all aluminum Ford F-150 in 2014..and engineered products) AA should split into two(2) companies and unlock shareholder value. Deutsche Bank thinks so...does anyone else?
    Dec 31 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Coast Refiners Entering A Golden Age [View article]
    The current ban on crude exports was imposed almost 100 years ago when the PADD system was established and the Navy saw crude oil as a critical national resource not to be squandered overseas as they refitted warships from coal to oil firing. However, crude oil and nat gas have been routinely exported to Canada and Mexico and a trickle has been coming out of Alaska for some time.

    If congress changes from Donkeys to Elephants and we get any significant change in the Presidential election in 2016, watch how the crude ban will be lifted using a quota system to limit the volume and keep crude available domestically.
    Dec 24 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC panel votes 3-2 in favor lifting ban on in-flight phone calls, Gogo spikes 3.5% [View news story]
    Why is one person talking on a cell phone more annoying than 2 people talking to each other? Noise level is the same or higher with two people than one, topics of little interest, and conversations tend to go on much longer with two than one. Many years ago when there used to phones available in each seat, conversations were brief because of the high cost. I think the same will happen if the airlines charge a per minute rather than flat rate for phone calls.
    Dec 18 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC panel votes 3-2 in favor lifting ban on in-flight phone calls, Gogo spikes 3.5% [View news story]
    As Global Service on United and Marco Polo Gold I no doubt fly a lot more than you do. I have been on flights where the chatter between 2 passengers have been non-stop. Flying back from Beijing 2 weeks ago, in business class, I sat in front of two(2) woman, one a buyer for the GAP, the other an executive from Columbia (clothing). Their conversations lasted 12 hours, the length of flight covering topics ranging from business, family, divorce, kids, etc. They didn't sleep, they just talked. Happens quite often. If you flew as much as I did, you would have experienced the annoyance. Why allow that and not allow cell phone conversations that have a finite span of time, especially if the airlines charge $1-2/minute for the service.
    Dec 15 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC panel votes 3-2 in favor lifting ban on in-flight phone calls, Gogo spikes 3.5% [View news story]
    Any unwelcome chatter on a plane flight is annoying. Could someone PLEASE explain the difference between making a cell phone while in midflight versus listening to a couple of businessmen discussing their next deal in the seat behind me or 2 strangers telling each other their life story in the seat in front of me. Let's just ban all talking on flights longer than 1 hour!

    Seriously though, prohibiting people from talking on a cell phone, whether it be a plane (unless it is a safety issue because of the electronic instrumentation on an aircraft) in a bar, restaurant, waiting room, etc., is a blatant violation of the First amendment. The government (nor private enterprises) can discriminate between people talking to one another in person versus speaking to someone over an electronic device. That is one of the "tests", so to speak, in determining whether prohibiting speech violates the First amendment.

    http://bit.ly/1bBH50u

    I agree it is annoying but constitutionally, it cannot be banned
    Dec 13 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
54 Comments
58 Likes