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kirk otis

kirk otis
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Soft Economic Data Confirm The Commodity Price Story? [View article]
    Another consideration and opportunity is regional investing. DShort provides the weekly snapshot, but there is a dearth of analysis of why things moved, and whether there are opportunities in one market vs another.
    Aug 2, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates As I Expected - It's Time To Buy [View article]
    It is unclear whether AAL will have a hedging program going forward. I assume no. Which really is not a problem since it is simple to create a hedge by buying OIL as a hedge against the impact of crude pricing impacting AAL.
    Jul 26, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Unleash iOS Multitasking At WWDC? [View article]
    yes, people hate Windows 8.. .but that is a three old OS, people like the one that came out two years ago much better, 8.1, and the new Windows 10 is much better. I agree people are not going to whip put a notebook for a map, but that is not the point. And the touch screens are far from a gimmick, the smart phone has proven that.

    The thesis is that people have learned an intuitive UI using IOS devices, so why force people to have a different experience on a Mac. If it was consistent, predictable and intuitive experience with IOS it would be very natural. These are the foundational mission that Jobs had for Apple. Tie the eco-system together, make everything available everywhere, make it work a consistent way, rather than force people to learn a different UI, with different features.
    Jun 8, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Dirty Little Secret, Free Same Day Delivery Isn't Free [View article]
    Isn't there a sales tax vs one day shipment issue? Will AMZN have to warehouse in state, and as a result pick up a tax liablity effectively wiping out the net margin?
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Dirty Little Secret, Free Same Day Delivery Isn't Free [View article]
    Amazon had been working on a speculative shipping model where they would ship items (but not assign a final address), have a bar code, it would move through the system, and the final address would not be assigned until the package was at the final distribution point ready to be loaded on a route truck. It would only work with high volume, predictable items, but would add no cost. It seems they could probably load 1/3 to 1/2 of daily ship volume this way.

    Are they still using this model?
    Jun 7, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Unleash iOS Multitasking At WWDC? [View article]
    I find it disappointing that OSX is not going to get more of the IOS features. Why not have LTE on a Mac, touch screens, Touch ID, GPS, and allow all Apps to be emulated on a Mac, and allow preferences on various devices to have continuity across the platforms. Why not allow things to work intuitively, consistently, seamlessly.
    Jun 6, 2015. 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group - Rolling Out The Boeing 787 Dreamliners [View article]
    I don't understand why AAL would not now begin to hedge. Seems that now would be a much better time to do so, than to wait for the spot price to go up. What is the logic? They sell tickets ahead (and thus are locked in on the rev), and are exposed on the fuel side.
    May 25, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: We May See 3 New iPhones In September [View article]
    I use google voice and it does nothing like I outlined. I am unable to run apps on my desk phone that handoff to my iPhone with GV. I am unable to dial using my iOS Contacts within GV. I do not have a GV device on my desk, can't buy one, and GV does not provide HD Voice like FaceTime Voice does.

    I already get international dialing via a VoIP service I am involved with, that is not the point.

    And I don't want another DND, what I want is a business presence, a personal presence and a junk line on a single device. Currently it is a hasle to dial out on a different DND, I want it to be simple, automatic.
    May 4, 2015. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: We May See 3 New iPhones In September [View article]
    The phone I want to see is a desk phone. I make most of my calls via a mobile phone because the numbers are there, and the caller ID I leave behind allows the other party to reach me, but if the numbers were also on my desk phone I would use it, plus such a device can have the apps I would use at my desk. Its a natural, and it would allow Apple to use FaceTime intelligently, build extensions for CRM, Unified Communications applications and ERP. And with the interaction with OS X via keychain over iCloud the mac would have a compelling offer in the enterprise market. Ultimately what I want is 3 numbers, a work number, a personal number, and a junk number. Apple can support this... we just need to get three personalities on the iPhone.
    May 4, 2015. 10:22 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On Cars (And Apple) [View article]
    Apple must do something. The market cap canotes a continuation of the margin into the future, to do so, they must maintain the margin and growth, but smart phones are reaching saturation, the growth is declining, and the use period is expanding. Furthermore, the differentiation is eroding putting pressure on margins. To counter this, Apple must find markets where they can make a sizable (to the margins of Apple) impact. Apple is a consumer products company that focuses on making complex things intuitive. The auto market fits the bill. It would appear to be totally foreign, but in terms of the things Apple can bring to the equation: Battery tech, integrated systems, User Interface, design and autonomous systems Apple has a lot to offer.

    Tesla was able to bring a compelling product to market and had less capital available. And no company has more capital available then Apple!

    Not only can they enter this market. They must. And will they be successful? Look at the buzz this has created, people are not saying it is foolish, there is excitement.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On Cars (And Apple) [View article]
    LiDAR can deal with chuckholes, sensor fusion systems can account for tail gaters and road rage, more precisely than drivers can.

    You will find that automated systems are safer than humans, but there is still a role for a driver.... as an overseer. After all, the other day I huge piece of steel fell off a truck full of junk, at 70mph. An automated system would not have seen it until it was in the air.

    I changed lanes in advance, and just kept on going.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Reports January Traffic And Raises Fuel Cost Guidance [View article]
    AAL trades at a forward P/E of 5.6 currently, and is at a discount to the other carriers.

    I see the estimates are for a big Q2. What drives that?
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Reports January Traffic And Raises Fuel Cost Guidance [View article]
    great idea.

    Allow regular sized people fly cheap, and fat ones pay for the americano sized seat.
    Feb 14, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Reports January Traffic And Raises Fuel Cost Guidance [View article]
    Buy AAL and Buy OIL as a hedge since AAL has that exposure.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Microsoft Have More Growth Potential Than Apple? [View article]
    I agree. Buy both. Its not like they compete. Apple sells the iphone, ipad and hardware. No software. Apple sells to consumers. Most Mac users buy their office productivity software from the leader in software Microsoft.

    Microsoft sells a crappy OS, that needs to be rebooted regularly due to security holes, to 3rd parties to put on commoditized hardware and then sell the best in class office suite, largely on a subscription basis.

    It's and Apple and an Orange. Two different markets, two different business models .
    Jan 24, 2015. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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