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kirk otis

kirk otis
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  • The 3 'S's Of Apple's 5S [View article]
    Why is Google being mentioned here? They are in a different business and have a different business model. They have no device revenue, no software revenue. They impact Apple yes, but mentioning their stock performance in comparison to Apple is pointless. It is like comparing Apple to WPP.

    I am in AAPL and wish I had been in GOOG.
    Nov 28 07:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Slowly Rotting: Rosy Financials Mask Competitive Disadvantage And Souring Future [View article]
    The number of responses here is crazy. People all responding to an article designed to be controversial. For the investment community to say any company is failing because it has not outdone the number one consumer product in the history of the planet is bizarre. Furthermore, if you look at the valuation, there is no premium for its market position. Yes the company is innovating, but will it deliver a product that will race into everyone's possession is the new measure of success. It is just not practical to expect a product will over take the number one position in the number one market in the history of mankind.
    Oct 29 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Slowly Rotting: Rosy Financials Mask Competitive Disadvantage And Souring Future [View article]
    What I don't get is why the iPad LTE does not have voice. It uses the same silicon for LTE so there is no reason why the software can not be used to provide voice functions. And if Apple were to do that, they could come out with a way to use an iPad to connect, a bluetooth device to communicate, and an iWatch to handle the UI. Apple's iPad would be back into growth mode. They could do the same thing with the iPhone and reverse the equation making the iPad the end device.... in fact, as a user, I believe I should not care. I should have all the functions on every device, and the carrier support all the devices on a single account.
    Oct 27 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New 64-Bit ARM A7 Chip Is Absolutely Amazing [View article]
    Great article, attracting a lot of comments which seem to synthesize down to Apple is innovating.

    What is lacking is an understanding as to why we should care, specially how is Apple going to utilize 64 bit capability? They don't have the memory available, it is unclear to me whether they have a 64bit IOS and what that would mean. Will we see the A7 in other Apple devices, in cloud servers, in Mac Airs, in iTVs? ie. while this is a great innovation, what is the implication?
    Sep 23 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New 64-Bit ARM A7 Chip Is Absolutely Amazing [View article]
    We will obviously see the A7 in the iPad. But will the technology migrate to other products? Say the mini server or the MacBook Air? Seems Apple could move to 64 quad, provide huge power savings, and improve the margin as well as grow share.
    Sep 23 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Xbox One Decisions Should Delight Investors [View article]
    Your intro saying Sony PS4 is the winner, and then your discussion about MSFT seems to be at odds. Did you change your opinion as your wrote the article or is it a typo?
    Jun 12 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    Lying about what? guidance is not provided in the 10K, and when do you believe they were lying in a press release? if they lower their guidance it can be because they expect lower reportable revenue.

    As Paulo points out, part of the reduction results from the acquisition because revenue that resulted from sales of licenses by CRM to Exact will no longer be reportable as revenue, only the revenue of when licenses are sold to a customer are reported. Thus the post acquisition revenues are lower to the extent inter-company sales are eliminated. Since we really don't know what this impact is, all the discussion about CRM obfuscating a negative adjustment is species.
    Jun 7 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    Are you referring to stock grants and options? I am simply looking at the cash being generated by operations being positive. Even after they fund the growth (A/R requires cash as it grows). Options and stock grants do not impact cash (but do dilute EPS).
    Jun 7 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    CRM actually has excellent operating cash flow, even after financing the growth in A/R due to the growth in receivables. Their investments and M&A activities is what causes their negative cash flow, which is to be expected.
    Jun 6 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    Companies that have negative cash flows in perpetuity are of course bankrupt. But if the cash flows are positive from operations, if the negative flow is to fund growth, or to pay for valuable acquisitions then this of course is a great story and justified.
    Jun 5 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    I did Sunil, he is writing about a valuation based on revenue and claiming Salesforce used the opportunity to reduce their revenue guidance for the year because the sum of the revenue for the two firms before the deal is more than the revised estimate. My point is that he does not understand that in US GAAP (and under IFRS) that this is due to elimination entries in accounting, which is why his statement about the 6.3x multiple based on revenue is misguided.

    Acquisitions are not valued based on revenues. The article only addresses revenue.

    I don't follow your point on impairment, I don't see any discussion of impairments of the deferred revenue in Paulo's article, nor in the press release. I do agree that CRM needs to do the deal, shocking they did it for cash (tells me that either ET refused CRM stock as being overpriced, or CRM believes their stock is undervalued).

    I have had CRM on my short list for a long time, but with the drop have gone now gone long.
    Jun 5 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    Firms are not valued based on past results, instead valuations are based on incremental future expected free cash flow.
    Jun 5 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    You simply are not understanding--> Revenue does not matter.
    You don't value firms based on revenue, for the reasons stated.
    You value firms on incremental free cash flow.
    Jun 5 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Acquisition Of ExactTarget Includes A Guide-Down [View article]
    You guys apparently have never seen the effect of an acquisition of revenue of companies have revenue from each other and have a dubious understanding of how to value companies.

    Revenue where one company sold to another is eliminated when they begin to report as one entity. You can not simply take the revenue of one company and add it to another companies and expect it to be the same if they are one company, as inter-company revenue is eliminated in the statutory accounting. The same is not the case in net income and cash flow. These are additive, and if synergies are achieved, improved.

    The valuation of a firm ultimately is based on the cash flows to the shareholder, acquisitions are based on incremental future expected free cash flow.
    Jun 5 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Word Separates Apple From $500 [View article]
    I wish Apple would add LTE voice to the mini... they already have the hardware, so the BOM would likely be the same (there may be some licenses they would need). Use the mini connected to a bluetooth ear piece, and then also offer certain info on the iWatch display (like caller ID, voicemail and text indicators, calendar and contacts).

    I also wish Apple would add more of the functionality into the MacBook Pro / OS X. Like LTE, GPS and some of the IOS features. It is baffling that my $299 mini is a more powerful of a tool than my new $2199 MacBook Pro. And since no once else has provided the function, it would be an Apple innovation.

    I also wish that iCloud was aware of all my apps and would back up my data. That way I could go to iCloud and log onto a virtual desktop and if doing so from a machine that has the apps installed, the data could be downloaded and executed locally. Any with a mac could thus log in using anyone's computer, and would have a great user experience if they were using a Mac. iCloud would authenticate the license/use. Suppose I go and buy a new mac... just log onto iCloud and all my data, history, contacts, set-ups, everything is there... and as I use it and as it loads the data and apps locally the performance just gets better.
    May 29 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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