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Are Natural Gas Producers in Denial? - Canaccord

You may be missing the point. While some companies are forecasting production growth, many aren't. They are forecasting flat production. The ones forecasting growth are the "Shale Have's" in Aubrey McClendon's terminology. Then, you have to factor in the Big Gas guys like COP and BP and XOM and others. While they quote production growth in the very low single digits, this is a worldwide number and doesn't tell you much about their Lower 48 natural gas totals. So, while a HK grows its production at 20% or whatever it is, that's a small drop compared to a COP or BP (#2 and #3 US nat gas producer) that at best will hold relatively flat.

Our nat gas supply/demand imbalance isn't a huge number right now. We are not 20% out of balance, really only a small number. So a small imbalance weighted toward too much gas derives a huge decrease in price. Guess what happens when we get a very small imbalance weighted toward not enough gas? Prices skyrocket. Predicting winter 2009/2010.