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Bullish Signs from Oil

toobad41: while you are right that "most" gas wells produce some liquids, when you look at the revenue and profits of many predominately nat gas companies, >90% of their revenue/profit comes from nat gas sales. Check out CHK and HK. Oil prices don't really impact them, its nat gas prices, unless we have a good tight relationship between oil and nat gas prices which we haven't see.

Jimbo: not sure where to start with your post. On quickly changing tack from nat gas to oil, its a lot more difficult than you would think. When a company leases acreage/mineral rights in an area that is gas prone, they can't just snap their fingers and start drilling for oil. They've invest millions of dollars in a gas play and they just up and move to an oil play?? Don't think so. Your comments on PUD's are not reall factual, more of an opinion that for the life of me, I can't find any data to back it up. Perhaps you have some?? Since I've worked reserves accounting for years I can see PUDs being developed and moved to PDP all the time.

Bullish Signs from Oil

Quick question: how does a move in oil make for a move in EXCO, Range, etc? These are natural gas producers and while there is a correlation between oil and gas prices, that has been weak as of late. Natural gas is mired in a supply/demand imbalance that has only minimal relationship to crude.

Where is the North American Natural Gas Market Headed?

I believe your engineering on the coalbed methane (CBM) is off a bit. Yes, the rate increase initially as the coal de-waters and the pressure is reduced. However, CBM wells also experience hyperbolic decline like shale gas wells and eventually decline to a very small flow rate. Now, that flow rate will last for a long time, but it will be very very low. The plot shown in the EOG study includes CBM wells, a lot of them as CBM has been a major producing source for many years. BP, ConocoPhillips and Burlington (now part of COP) have been producing CBM in the San Juan basin for years. But the wells have high decline rates too. Get your reservoir engineering straight. Natural Gas is in tight supply and the land owners fight like hell to keep us from drilling for it. I've worked 3 projects involving CBM and only one of them has been economical. The others were fraught with delays and rapid cost increases due to land owner and greenie weenie fights against us.