Stanley

http://klox.com

9 Comments

    • Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
      remember also that much of the 'historical mean' included periods where no doc, interest only, zero down and neg-am loans were being offered. these loans were creating additional demand that was pushing up prices. now these loans are gone, if not for good, for a good number of years at least. (demand destruction! ) Sep 08 02:43 AM
    • Hyperinflation, Here We Come [view article]
      Andy, you are missing several points.
      1. houses are still overvalued by historic standards and will likely keep losing value for many years.
      2. oil is in a price bubble, and it will eventually pop, just like housing did.
      3. inflation has nothing to do with commodity prices. the fed is not printing money. yes, the fed is giving the banks cheap money to lend. but they can't lend it because they are having issues paying off all their bad loans. also nobody is borrowing the cheap money because of economic uncertainty, job losses, falling property values.
      4. wages are not going up. in an inflationary environment, there is so much money floating around, wages are shooting up. are people that do the job that you were doing 3 years ago now making 100% more? i know in most parts of the US wages are basically flat.       Jul 15 01:35 AM
    • Can't Keep Home Prices from Falling [view article]
      "The next problem for potential homeowners will be finding financing for that cheap house."

      seems that prices will keep falling until people can get the financing as well as afford the payments. no financing means no transactions happening, which means prices are still higher then the market will bear. This is the opposite of what happened on the way up when excessively loose financing pushed prices way up.       May 01 02:04 AM
    • How Far Will House Prices Fall? Implications From the Latest WSJ Survey [view article]
      graphs are nice, but some hard data that points to a 50% drop in some areas, less in others would be:
      - rents should be about the same as mortgage payments
      - the median income should be able to afford the median priced home (without a crazy loan product)
      - CAP rate or ROI on real estate should return to historical levels

      Apr 02 02:34 AM
    • The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why [view article]
      Jim, do you think the Fed is actively deflating or is it just failing at trying to inflate with the tools it has. The Fed can only provide cheap loans to banks. It can't make banks lend out the cheap money nor can it make borrowers want to borrow it. Banks want to lend less and at a higher margin because asset prices are falling (like houses) and banks need to make only higher quality loans if they want to survive. Borrowers are also less likely to borrow for the purchase of overpriced houses that will likely continue to decline in value and will probably borrow less on other higher priced consumer goods like cars and high end electronics if their home equity/net worth is erroding away. Mar 27 02:43 AM
    • The Real Issues Behind Declining Home Equity Levels [view article]
      "The only real long-term solution to the affordability issue is a direct subsidy or an increase in income."

      Wrong, the only real long-term solutions is for home prices to drop until they are back inline with incomes.

      A subsidy will divert moneys from other gov't programs or need to borrowed. the former will increase unemployment the later will increase real borrowing costs.
      Increasing incomes can likely only be accomplished with inflation, by further devaluing the dollar. this will further drive up prices for food, engergy, everything, for all consumers.

      both miss the point that housing should be affordable for all, and not a subsidized ATM for the privilaged few that happened to jump onbourd early in the game.
      Mar 13 02:21 AM
    • Which is the Most Accurate Home Price Index? [view article]
      also remember that when sales slow down and inventory rises, the market price (the price which would result in a given amount of housing inventory selling) is effectively falling, even though asking and selling prices might not yet be. all inventory (housing and otherwise) sells if priced correctly. increased inventory results where there is a difference between the market price and the asking price Feb 25 01:28 AM
    • Peter Schiff on the Housing Market and the Rescue Plan [view article]
      Can someone in support of borrower bailouts explain why keeping people strapped with $3000/mo mortgages they cannot afford on depretiating houses is better for then letting them rent the same houses for $1500/mo? I think Peter is right on this one. We'd all be better off the quicker this mess corrects. Dec 23 02:01 AM
    • No Bottom Yet: Housing Permits Drop To 14-Year Lows [view article]
      "How about providing some metrics. When will "too high" no longer be "too high?" Are we content to say "I'll know it when I see it?"

      Tim is right on,
      how about looking at home price to rent ratios, cap rates for rentals, home price to income ratios, the cost of materials+labor required for new construction vs asking prices, all of which are still way out of whack. Although to look at these, one might have to call himself an investor
      -S       Dec 20 01:23 PM
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