SwampCotton

The Bull Is Sharpening His Horns

Bruce, I believe, from a technical analysis viewpoint, you have drawn the major line in the sand: 12,800 on the Dow Industrials. If the Dow can penetrate and hold above that number for five or more days, I would say the bear's back is broken. My personal believe is that all the bears are laying a trap for the bulls and will carve them into steaks from this level. I believe we will see 10,000 on the Dow before we see 13,000. My tickets to watch this epic battle are already purchased: SKF, the UltraShort Financials that goes up when the financials go down. Get ready to rumble!

Financial Stocks' Future Earnings Estimates: Is This a Joke?

I am also long on SKF from last week and short both MER and GS.

The Economist has about ten pages on the Wall Street situation in their lastest issue of March 22nd through March 28th.

I quote from page 82:

"The outlook remains bleak, however. By one estimate, banks will writeoff a further $50 billion of degraded inventory this quarter. If they are more tightly regulated, they could have less scope to make profits. Using tangible book value as a yardstick, Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer concludes that the financial shares are due a further fall of up to 5o%. With house prices still falling, credit deterioration spreading and derivatives markets deeply unsettled, is anyone willing to bet that Bear Stearns is the last of the $2 sales?"

I believe the bear market has a tight grip on the financials.

Will the Agriculture Boom Last?

I would think the agricultural commodites still have a way to go upward in price but with rather violent swings. I am long in DBA which deals with wheat, soybeans, corn, and sugar on an equal basis.

Friday's Turnaround: Raid on the Shorts

The move on Friday was so fast that I was paralyzed at my terminal. My position of 400 shares of SKF, the UltraShort 200% inverse ETF of the fanacial sector went from $16.86 to $7.75 in seconds. I'm down nearly $3,500 in that short time span. Can I get some insurance from AMBAC after the fact to cover my indiscretion? In truth, I think I will be back in the money by the end of next week, hoping for some "inappropriate" rumours from CNBC.