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9 Comments

    • Has Focus Media Found its Bottom? [view article]
      FMCN never cartered to the tourists. It's not CTRIP.
      Jul 19 09:30 PM
    • Baidu: A Train Heading for Derailment? [view article]
      To write an article like this, some knowledge of the internet sector is required, at least some due diligence should be performed. The author clearly doesn't have much a clue.

      This is not to say that I am long or short on this stock, only to remark on the lack of thought discipline on this. First, the competition in China from Google / Yahoo to Baidu has resulted in Baidu gaining close to 70% of search market, up from about 50% two years ago, when everyone expected Google was going to kill Baidu. Secondly, the market growth is nothing comparable to that of Airliners, both from an overall market perspective and from a Web Monetization perspective. Third, Baidu is not as simple a search engine than a widespread ranges of Web services, and as far as government is concerned, they have done an excellent job, 10 times better than Google.

      The stock is not cheap, I don't bet either on it. But this kind of article is very misleading.       May 04 11:24 AM
    • Google: Looking Past the Hype [view article]
      Indeed, I share the same "feeling", and i don't think most people would disagree. We will see if GOOG can pull another great quarter, and more importantly, as you pointed out, keep the growth.... Jan 08 08:48 AM
    • Just How Big is the China Bubble? [view article]
      This is not the first time this comparison was made. Not only on other sites, but also once on this site as well.

      There is indeed a valuation issue with Chinese stocks. But this type of comparison is simply non sense, stupid.

      This is a site read by people with sufficient if not sophisticated math and financial background. Please do not post this kind of kid stuff again. Thanks.       Oct 03 11:14 AM
    • Why Companies Entering China Must Carefully Consider Their Partners [view article]
      Good Article, Shaun.
      This apparent symptom, highlighted by the Sino-Japanese relationship issues, is quite a serious matter. Fundamentally, it's about respect, or lack of respect, or sensitivity to the lack of respect. I have witnessed myself many incidents like this, and it really harms, and particularly it harms often under the surface, thus long lasting.       Sep 10 10:04 PM
    • What's Behind China's Recent Currency Surge? [view article]
      Shaun, thanks for the good reply. Your math does make sense, though I am not fully convinced; I hope that soon we will have a clearer picture as what has happened. This is probably a relatively rare case, not only the amount of reserve is huge, it has also severe political implications, not just an interesting case for our small debate. Again, i commented because i read quite some of your previous posts; keep them coming! :-)
      btw: Toyota build really good cars, enjoy the ride; but I am not a fan of Japanese business practice.       Apr 19 11:59 AM
    • China as an Economic Superpower: 'Watch Out Below' [view article]
      MIchael, you need to check the earning reports. It's just amazing!!! from 80% yoy earning growth to 400% earning growth. This is simply not NASDAQ before dot-com burst. I am not saying that this is not appearing crazy, but it's not going to follow the same patterns. Let's get the data right first. Apr 18 12:22 PM
    • What's Behind China's Recent Currency Surge? [view article]
      Shaun, the story is a nice read, but without support of actual data. This is particular true with your cause #1, which doesn't seem to be a factor in the same magnitude as others. It's simple, if we simply calculate the number of foreigners and alike and the % of them exchanging for RMB, ...., it's still insignificant to the huge number in terms of gap in foreign currency reserve.
      I enjoyed most of your posts, but this one, "after thinking for several days", is not convincing. ;-)       Apr 18 11:49 AM
    • Feedback on the Chinese Bubble -- A Point-by-Point Refutation [view article]
      The quality of this post is quite poor (Kindly allow me to be direct).
      1. "it will be decades before the services sector will be able to make meaningful contributions to the economy." first, what's the % of service sector in the GDP? I recall it's about 30%, and that is not meaningful? From year 78 to present, about 3 decades has passed to witness the build up of this "manufacturing country", then on what basis "it will be decades"?
      2. Bad debt is about 40% of the GDP. Where does that number come from? All major Chinese banks now publish bad debt ratios; you may not trust those numbers, but at least we should have some basic facts before we just say 40%, which is enormous.
      3. Effect of US slowdown: any impact analysis using real numbers? The word "crash" is evidently a heavy one requiring some serious support.
      I am not here to defend Chinese economy. I am just annoyed by this low quality post, particularly in comparison to other good posts. I hope editor of this site have a better quality bar.       Sep 18 11:24 AM
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