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ControlledRisk

ControlledRisk
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  • Amarin: The Silence Of The Lamb [View article]
    Which brings up a good question, why is Niacin still approved?

    This is how I am losing all faith in government. They have data that says Niacin is actually doing more harm than good, but they won't take it off the market, meanwhile using it as a reason to not approve something else? So the thing that seems to be actually good for you, or at least safe, must show absolute long term data before approval in expanded indications, even though it too is already approved? The logic is so ridiculous, no one would believe it if you wrote it as a book/movie.
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Silence Of The Lamb [View article]
    A little hope to make my day brighter. Thanks.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: All Systems Go [View article]
    It's a simple stock option that gives him the right, but not the obligation, to buy 75k shares at $6.32. He could buy them and hold the shares for better tax treatment, but most people exercise and sell at the same time. Meaning some day in the future when OCAT is $100 a share he exercises his right to buy shares at $6.32 then sells them for $100.

    It would make no sense to buy them if the price was below $6.32 because you could buy them cheaper on the open market.
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Provides Further Information Regarding the Design of the Phase 2 PreSERVE AMI Clinical Trial [View article]
    Is someone tweeting that this is obviously lies, proves management is terrible, and that they obviously knew the results before unblinding?

    Do we need the head of the CRO to again say that leaks of data is nonsense?

    I do feel for the people working on these things that feel like they are accomplishing something, only to have a few "reporters" bash the results. Hopefully they take the "chip on the shoulder" routine of athletes.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    This comment shocks me. You can look up the terms of the agreement with LP and read it.

    I'm not 100% sure on the exact number details, but the deal is a discount, I believe it was 3%, to the average market price over so many days (I think 10). There is a limit to how much OCAT can sell them per day agreed to by both parties, but OCAT controls if they sell them.

    I've speculated before on how I think LP makes their money on this arrangement besides the immediate 3% benefit. I believe it is financial engineering at it's best, and probably similar to how market makers work.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem off premarket as Phase 2 MACE endpoint not statistically significant [View news story]
    Yeah, I don't get it. What were people expecting? This data looked great to me.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Average 3 month volume as ACTC was 232K. The 5 days before the change was almost 150K average.

    Friday OCAT did 72K, and today is at 102K with only about an hour left of trading.
    Nov 17, 2014. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Changing the ticker before uplist makes perfect sense. Why is the price down today? People are probably still figuring out that what happened to ACTC. My stock app on my phone still shows ACTC up 2.5% and no news of ticker change. Over the course of this week everyone will figure it out. Changing the ticker and uplist would be even more confusing. Now, the uplist will clearly show up in the news feed for OCAT.
    Nov 17, 2014. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: All Systems Go [View article]
    You are generalizing everyone after looking at the most radical which is just nonsense.

    Yes, I thought the Lancet would have a nice impact on share price and it did, until everyone starting freaking out about the shelf and share increase which was clearly coming. I always factored in at least a doubling of the share count in my calculations, and I asked people to look at the valuation of other Phase1/2 companies when throwing out stock price projections. My take has been that until Phase 2 data is available this company is maxed out at $700million to $1billion market cap. Sure, it could go higher if something dramatic changes, but people don't pay a premium for the risk and uncertainty associated with ANY biotech. That is why there is an opportunity to make extraordinary gains if you pick the right one early enough.

    I keep feeling better about this investment long term and am not sweating anything right now.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: All Systems Go [View article]
    Doug, I know you are worried about the price eroding, but this stock has been stuck in the 6-7 range for pretty much two years. I'm not sure why this would change in the next two months when things are actually getting better for the company.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: All Systems Go [View article]
    Was BCLI above $4 and did it have a shareholder deficit? Comments I have seen suggest that ACTC needs to trade above $4 for 90 trading days before they were eligible for uplist. 90 trading days is 4.5 months, and ends Jan 7th. If those are the rules, I think that if the uplist occurs in January that is as simultaneous as it could be.

    If you are freaking out about this right now, after publication of data, ask yourself how you would have felt if they told you about this in August.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Tech files for shelf offering [View news story]
    Just one last thought here Doug. If ACT has investors lined up to buy $100 million in shares, that's $100 million that was probably thrilled with the data but wasn't buying. I've seen many stocks that actually are higher a month after offerings. The platelet news today is also nice. Sure I wish the price had moved, but I disagree with people who say there are no catalysts until 2020. I still like this stock and hopefully someday the market will react, but I also said this company was realistically worth $500 million to $1 billion at this stage of development. With the added shares, if they sold them all, that is a price of $8.30-$16.30. Long term though I expect significantly more than that.
    Oct 17, 2014. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    I get this frustration, but let's be honest the Q&A on prior calls has been a joke. I love icell for certain things, but some of the questions are just crazy. They need more professional questions, not Joe from Indiana wondering if the information he got from calling Tufts directly is accurate, or if some actor will receive the procedure.

    No offense to Joe or Indiana was intended, just making the point no other respected company is taking questions from retail investors on their calls.
    Oct 15, 2014. 05:43 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    Yes, let's sue the cash strapped company you are hoping to retire on. Good idea.

    Are you Gary, by the way, because your change in attitude towards this company is remarkable. Current management is so much better I just don't understand you.

    Since you claim to have funded the science, how many checks have you written to ACT in exchange for your shares? I am much more confident in Wotton, Lanza, Miles, Langer than you or any other shareholder driving this company.
    Oct 15, 2014. 05:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Tech files for shelf offering [View news story]
    I don't believe that the new shares will go to Lincoln. I think the new shares will be for long term institutional holders in conjunction with the uplist. This is all based on what management (Ted specifically) has said in the past. Lincoln is not an investor, Lincoln is a money supplier.

    Now I'm waiting for the on-demand call to get an update.
    Oct 15, 2014. 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
280 Comments
317 Likes