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Belvedere Research
10 Comments
The Truth in Advertising: $700B Means $700B (and Maybe More)
If I was shaping policy, I'd say: do the bailout, structure the subsequent MBS deals with warrants for anything purchased over current market clearing prices (ie if treasury thinks the market is paying fire sale prices for a certain security and wants to pay above that...)
Polycom Benefits From Rising Travel Costs
My only question about PLCM relates to the investor relations of mgmt. This was the first webcast that I watched in its entirety and there was something "off" about the flow of the call, maybe the marginal video quality, or maybe the rah-rah spinning of all responses. Did you/anyone else walk away with this sense?
Still, I'm long PLCM and think the story is too good to pass up
U.S. Credit Card Performance: More Deterioration in April
COF for one (I'm short w/ puts) has fallen about 20% in the last month or so, and I believe they have a ways further to fall. Issuing banks have several factors squeezing them right now:
(1) debt already on the books is much less likely to pay off than they thought when they issued. "thought" may be too generous, maybe "hoped" is a better word
(2) overextended consumers, and those who file bankruptcy etc... will (eventually) stop charging as much to their cards as they feel the pinch which bounds their profits. Admittedly, in the short term, they may charge more because they have to, but you can only spend more than you make for so long...
(3) As more consumers/voters get overwhelmed with their credit card situations, there will be more public outcry and vilification of the credit card industry for their shady double cycle billing and high APR fees. Congress will get in on the act and will pass legislation limiting the fees that card companies can charge (it's an election year after all!) and this will SEVERELY squeeze profit margins. Intuitively, I have to believe that a lion's share of card issuers' profits come from penalties and fees that could be (and probably should be) curtailed.
I'm talking my book here since I'm betting against COF, but in my opinion COF will be the CFC (countrywide) of 2008...
I Think Microsoft Is Bluffing on Yahoo
Either way, Yang had better start polishing his resume...
The Reverse Ripple Theory of Metropolitan Home Price Corrections
I'd offer one more possible reason for why. In the bay, outlying areas were the ones where subprime was the biggest factor as people who otherwise couldn't afford a house decided to accept a 45 minute or 1 hour 45 minute commute and "stretch" for that house. They're most susceptible to the jolt of foreclosures and abrupt halt of banks willing to lend. Factors leading to inner rings of the ripple lowering prices have more to do with the slow process of price discovery and inward diffusion of prices.
If a buyer was formerly willing to add 30 minutes to commuting to save $200K, they're still directionally willing to do so, and if Stockton houses drop, it's a matter of time before the next buyer looking at Stockton vs Concord, or Concord vs Freemont, or Freemont vs. Berkeley, etc... will ripple that price inward.
The other possible reason is level of speculation. Just a guess but I'd suspect more were speculating on new home developments out on the fringes than on 100 year old (and much pricier) homes in the city center.
Housing Prices Are Still Headed Down
Intel's Plan: To Bring Personal Computing to the Masses
Zoran: Riding the Consumer Electronics Wave
That said, the consumer spending slowdown does give me concerns about such a gadget focused silicon player.
Latest Case-Schiller Report Shows the Sky is Falling
www.housingtracker.net...
For a good (albeit 5 months out of date) set of affordability stats on 50+ markets. It's pretty clear that some markets are working thru a short term pricing reset, while others have a huge headwind of fundamentals that'll likely be blowing for 5+ years.
Even if you believe that LA/SF have fundamentally changed so that now paying 50 or 60% of income for mortgage payments is going to continue to be the new reality (I highly doubt that, by the way) that means the real estate market would only grow at the rate of wages going forward (i.e., no 10-15% per year upside anymore!).
Case-Shiller: Steepest Price Decline On Record
www.housingtracker.net...
Not academic, but a very clear summary of what you're talking about. It's clear that some metro areas are in a shorter term downcycle from a wave of foreclosures and illiquidity (e.g., Detroit) while others are in for a longer term fundamentals-based downcycle (e.g., LA, SF). Remember that in LA in the early nineties, prices got out of touch with fundamentals and stayed underwater in some areas for almost a decade