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JB204zz

JB204zz
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  • Casinos love $2 gas [View news story]
    Las Vegas Casinos are one market. The more regional casinos have a few things going for them. Cheaper gas prices allow for more disposable income along with less expense to get to the casino. (a perceived difference). Also, if you go to some regional casinos, you see a number of retirees. The baby boomers are retiring in droves and looking for entertainment. In addition, the rest of the country is stll enjoyment cheap gas(2.10 to 2.20 in Colorado)

    I've also been looking at the suppliers. There is some consolidation going on and a transfer from old technology slots to more interactive video gaming. Understand what your investing ina nd stay away from Macau and Trump.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Some Candid Words For 2015 [View article]
    Good Info

    Thanks
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Some Candid Words For 2015 [View article]
    Right....and NGL prices were the VNR excuse for reduced earnings one of their last quarter because the NGL wasn't wasn't hedged. I haven't heard anything about NGL prices and VNR since. BTW..I'm not sure if you can hedge NGL...but you can hedge the major components including Propane.
    Dec 30, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Some Candid Words For 2015 [View article]
    Good Article....what about buying the preferreds? The distribution cut will hit VNR, but what risk is attached to VNRBP, etc, besides total liquidation?
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k) [View article]
    The shorter the average tenure on the job, the more desirable it is to invest in a 401k. You may not get the full vested matching, but you have the option to transfer your savings into a low fee IRA earlier.

    My company's 401k has a great match for every dollar you save up to the government limit and the the match is automatically vested. The fees are a little high, but insignificant compared to the match.

    401k Roth is a better option for a younger worker, but takes a much bigger share of a paycheck.

    I targeted 401ks early in my careeer and moved into respectable figures. Most of that money is now in IRA's earning 5% which I bought seven years ago. If I didn't put myself into forced savings, I would probably had spent it. Once I retire and have a lower tax bracket, I'll start moving it into Roth IRAs to leave to my kids because you aren't forced to take a distribution.

    I would disagree that 401ks are a bad investment choice only because they worked for me.
    Dec 29, 2014. 08:29 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    Paid under 2.00 a gallon today for the first time in years. I remember being part of a downstream operation with a lot of facilities. The price went beyond $2.00 and we needed a bunch of extra number 2's for street pricing. The manager wouldn't buy the 2's (around $100k) because it would blow his budget. So we needed special dispensation from senior management for the purchase. This was one of my more perplexing moments in the oil biz along with the time oil was over 145 and I had to explain to senior management why our working capital had increased. It was all about the price increase and inventory we maintained in the distribution and refinery operations which were basically constant.

    On another note, I wonder what the implications of normalized relations with Cuba will have on longer term exploration and production. It could provide some additional North American opportunities.
    Dec 20, 2014. 09:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I'll stick to my XTN and MTN for just a couple of my plays....as the XTN is where I'm making money and MTN is where I'm currently spending most of my time. Sorry Boss that this is what you ended up doing.....let me know if you need some cash to borrow..
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    Absolutely as every article and comment is SA is someones opinion and what activity proof are you referring?. You are only stating the obvious. Think XOM is smarter than everybody...look up the purchase of XTO for almost $30B and tell me how smart that was.....
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    Example

    XOM

    6 month high 104.76
    6 month low 86.91

    Loss from high 17%
    Current Dividend 2.94%
    Period to make up asset loss =17/2.94=5.78 years

    Keep buying your dividend buddy. I'll wait until the market stabilizes before I start playing the oil market for dividends. The mid range companies are much worse. Refer back to the 80's and the bath investors took when Saudi Arabia dropped prices before. I'll invest in this oil market for volatility, not dividends. I was there working for a major in the 80's. Where were you?
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    Saudi Arabia would not have allowed the price to drop unless they had a goal and will not relent until they meet that goal or decide the price drop has failed. The only oil investment I would even consider today would be one with a business goal for production efficiency, effective hedging or buying cheap reserves. The multi millionaires and billionaires are quietly circling to buy the assets of the companies whose stock is owned by the penny investors (us) when those companies go bankrupt.

    Don't get caught up in all these silly articles about buying stock in oil companies whose stock has dropped. You'll be transferring your money to the one per centers. Just like people overpaid for houses that were bought by the investment companies on the cheap, recognize the model. There is no conspiracy in the transfer of assets to the rich, the poor and middle class do it to themselves.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    It's all the fun in investing and keeps life interesting. In the long-run, you only have to be right 51% of the time to make money, unless your form of entertainment is watching reruns of Lawrence Welk..
    Nov 30, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    The part missed in many of these comments and what will cause the slowdown in shale is not the oil companies. It's the investors and banks. For example, let's say a driller has a known reserve that is valued at $90 BBL oil and he uses these reserves as collateral to expand/drill or whatever to expand production. When the price quickly drops to $65, the reserves no longer maintain the banks required capital. The driller then has to come up with additional reserves, rapidly reduce capital investment or in the worst case, lose the company. The same scenario exists for bonds. The second leg of the slowdown will be the fear of investors to supply funds for new projects.

    The fear of investing will go into the future and limited capital will slow down shale development even when oil prices recover.

    Finally and I'm making assumptions, we know this is all contrived by the big OPEC players and you know that they have protected themselves with various hedges or whatever to protect themselves. They ultimately have goals and have already stated openly, reduce American shale. The market conditions are contrived and will reverse when they so decide and have met their goals.
    Nov 29, 2014. 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3) [View article]
    Once oil prices dropped below $90 and Saudi showed no side to limiting production, I strongly felt it was time to get out of oil related issues and did. The reason being its very difficult to reverse the downward prices and once they started falling, Saudi was intent on lowering prices for whatever reason, fracking Russians or both (pun intended). I've made comments to this in the last month, but these articles are now for paid members.

    Anyway, Saudi is the major producer of OPEC and is synonymous with them. Once they make restraint comments, I'll begin to buy back in. Otherwise, I feel that they are vested in accomplishing their goals and achieving this with cheaper oil prices. Look up the history of $10 oil and you'll see the results, bankruptcies and mergers...XOM MOB BP AMOCO ARCO just listing the majors. Opportunity abounds, but not right now, unless you like to short, but that's not my forte.
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I feel that the probability of OPEC lowering production is not in the cards because of the fighting between the religious factions outweighs the pain of lower oil prices, for the moment. We're taking Iran, Saudi, Russia, Iraq and Venezuela, etc. It would be like herding cats. We'll see some semblance of cooperation at the Nov 27th meeting, but I don't see it lasting. The social pain of lower oil prices will eventually overcome national pride and their will be forced cooperation. I just see the chances as low at this point. Supply to me is the obvious pricing game. There are unique investments in oil, maybe merger potentials, but I see the probability of lower oil prices lasting a little longer.

    I have been making some quick buck transactions in the mid range oil sector, but that's more of my gambling money that I play with profit.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise: Speculators Are Long Oil [View article]
    Exactly....

    I remember BP upgraded it's Northern Midwest refinery to take in sour crude from Canada for the lower price differential. I also remember BP was going to bring in LNG from Trinidad and was investing big dollars in refineries and LNG development. It shows how arbitrage can change perceived economics and why I continue to look at oil as a worldwide homogeneous product and Natural Gas as regional.

    I agree with you on the justification for Keystone. They can then export the
    products.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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80 Comments
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