Richard Schweitzer

149 Comments

    • ON: Tue Jul 8th 07:36 AM
      Commented on:
      Several Firms Come to Defense of Fannie, Freddie
      Changing the dressing of the store windows does not chnage the quality of the merchandise inside.
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    • ON: Tue Jul 8th 07:20 AM
      Commented on:
      Recommending PriceSmart in Light of Sustained Store Momentum
      One may be reminded of Peter Drucker's caveats about placing too much on the meaning of EPS.

      Expand this article by analysis of inventory growth related to sales volume; changes in G&A; cash flow[?], etc.



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    • ON: Tue Jul 8th 07:08 AM
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie: Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off
      Absolutely on target. This would also end one of the most corrupting synergies in politics.

      The impact would be more effective and far-reaching than the proposed "Housing bailout," and have a much lower long-term cost with lower "moral hazard."
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    • ON: Sun Jul 6th 21:14 PM
      Commented on:
      Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II)
      Oh! and I first learned about the distinct need for Potash working on a farm in DeKalb County, IL. back in the 30's. The lessons apply to most of Iowa and Nebraska as well.
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    • ON: Sun Jul 6th 21:11 PM
      Commented on:
      Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II)
      THERE MAY SOMETHING CALLED THE "ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY" AT WORK HERE AFFECTING THIS INFORMATIVE ANALYSIS.

      PRODUCTION OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHATE(S) CAN RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY TO INCREASED DEMAND. NOT SO EASY FOR POTASH. IT WILL TAKE A FEW YEARS OF SUSTAINED INCREASES IN DEMAND TO BRING ON NEW SOURCES, THOUGH SOME HAVE STARTED. IT TAKES A FEW YEARS TO OPEN A NEW "MINE."
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    • ON: Thu Jul 3rd 06:36 AM
      Commented on:
      Beware of Crumbling BRICs
      If this concerns U S investors with BRIC-related holdings, shouldn't some of the commentary reflect "relative" rates of inflation; using, for example, the true rate of U.S. inflation? (see, Bill Gross and others)

      If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.

      It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 26th 08:45 AM
      Commented on:
      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      How about doing a report on the "quality of Tracking/"

      Or have I missed it?
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    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 22:32 PM
      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Incidentally, It does not appear that the median of the list was based on any form of weighting.
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    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 22:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Correction: Japan IS on this list (next to bottom)
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    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 22:29 PM
      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Bill Gross had some telling commentary in the June PIMCO Report on the point of an understated U S inflation rate.

      In fact the global inflation rate may be inaccurate.

      Try 7%. A good measure is the number of hours of work (usually at some median wage net of taxes - direct and indirect) is required to obtain the basics of given standards of living.

      Discl: Long YEN futures (Japan is not on this list!!)
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    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 22:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Two Emerging Market Steel Plays: Mechel and Siderurgica
      MTL - "some coal?" If my research is on target, MTL is the largest coal cutter in the world.

      MTL "charts" are still reflecting the split (3-1) and its after effects.

      SID may be getting too vertical for it's managements background, but they will likely bring in some new people for parts of the operations.

      Discl: Long (for quite some time) SID & MTL
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    • ON: Fri Jun 20th 08:06 AM
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Gee, Ishortyou, how many times will you post this same stuff?

      Disclosure: Long MBI - so not antithetical.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 19th 08:32 AM
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Real good today Eli.
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    • ON: Wed Jun 18th 08:42 AM
      Commented on:
      A Personal Thank You to Momentum Investors
      Consider:

      Where are the markets (users of) Potash (K)?

      What part of the costs of the users' products consists of costs of K?

      Are new or expanded users of K coming onstream (increasing plantings and acreages - mny marginal acres w/o added K)?

      Are price margins of users products (crops) rising to match marginal uses of K?

      How long does it take to bring on new K sources (8-10 years)?

      Are there any source substitutes for K, as there are for the other two major ingredients of crop nutrients?

      Disclosure: Long,Long POT, MON, JJA, JJG & DE
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jun 18th 07:52 AM
      Commented on:
      Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II
      Great comment on Barrons. That's why Eli's winnowing is useful.
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