R. Richard Schweitzer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/132785/comments http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31790?source=feed#comment-658824 658824
It's just people, not some real organic entity.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:04:34 -0400
It's just people, not some real organic entity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31790?source=feed#comment-658823 658823
It's just people, not some real organic entity.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:03:42 -0400
It's just people, not some real organic entity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157484-the-cftc-is-needlessly-breaking-good-products?source=feed#comment-643141 643141
We have to become aware of HOW corporate structures are infiltrated by the political in such a way as to make it appear that the corporate structures are "using" the government. Actually, the reverse is occurring.

We are well on the road to the New Totalitarianism, which while it will appear to be beneficial to commerce and finance initially, will shortly have all the aspects of socialism.

Apologies for this "political" digression, but the financial world in the U.S. is being altered for some time to come by political rather than commercial or private transaction forces.

R. Richard Schweitzer
]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 09:45:21 -0400
We have to become aware of HOW corporate structures are infiltrated by the political in such a way as to make it appear that the corporate structures are "using" the government. Actually, the reverse is occurring.

We are well on the road to the New Totalitarianism, which while it will appear to be beneficial to commerce and finance initially, will shortly have all the aspects of socialism.

Apologies for this "political" digression, but the financial world in the U.S. is being altered for some time to come by political rather than commercial or private transaction forces.

R. Richard Schweitzer
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134779-buffett-i-wouldn-t-buy-newspapers-at-any-price?source=feed#comment-488367 488367
Much of the information regarded as "news," no longer has much significance or "use" to the individual member of the U S public.

Much of the content presented in the print media (and in much of the TV network media) is no longer information (observed facts) . The content has become "contructs" to influence audience conduct (holding viewer or listener attention, e.g.).

The evolution and declines of periodicals (magazines) has tracked the demographics of American "reading patterns."

Printing by "printers" (who originated "papers" from "broadsides") will continue in geographic, economic and social areas where the audiences (such as a school campus) provide reception. However, "printers" will be expanded to include other modes of making words and pictures available to those for whom they may have some use.

Others can probably expand on these observations with examples from radio (oral information), Email exchanges, etc.]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 07:25:42 -0400
Much of the information regarded as "news," no longer has much significance or "use" to the individual member of the U S public.

Much of the content presented in the print media (and in much of the TV network media) is no longer information (observed facts) . The content has become "contructs" to influence audience conduct (holding viewer or listener attention, e.g.).

The evolution and declines of periodicals (magazines) has tracked the demographics of American "reading patterns."

Printing by "printers" (who originated "papers" from "broadsides") will continue in geographic, economic and social areas where the audiences (such as a school campus) provide reception. However, "printers" will be expanded to include other modes of making words and pictures available to those for whom they may have some use.

Others can probably expand on these observations with examples from radio (oral information), Email exchanges, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121053-the-good-bank-proposal?source=feed#comment-392854 392854
Here is a "public-private" mechanism that can be used to work out the problem of developing markets for assets that are frozen out of the market.
The Federal Government should not BUY anything more than it has already. It may use the guarantee function instead (with a limited exposure as set forth below)..
This is a highly simplified form for possible use.:
In former times, it was often called a "barrelhead agreement."
The U.S. should cause the formation of a type of quasi-mutual “bank” (Barrelhead Bank [BB]) that would be owned by all the participating banks, but structured along the lines of the FRS, but definetly not part of the FRS. This will be the basis of the “public” aspect supported by other action detailed below.
Each bank wishing to participate in "shedding" some classes of assets would transfer those assets to BB at a tentative valuation set by the participant and would receive a number (subject to future adjustment) of shares in Barrelhead Bank [BB]. In addition, the participant would purchase for CASH (pay to play) an additional number of shares (not subject to adjustment) equal to at least 3% of the valuation initially assigned to assets transferred.
Immediately upon establishment and completion of transfers, the participants would be entitled to claim the BB shares as assets in place of those transferred, but should set a reserve for adjustments. A Board would be established to review and set initial arbitrary prices on the assets received in accord with uniform standards uniformally applied to all transfers. While the U.S. could be a subscriber to a special class of shares, to provide greater capital depth, that is NOT recommended, but may turn out to be propitious.
Upon the establishment of the initial arbitrary price of assets transferred, the number of shares issued will be adjusted (up or down) from those set by the participants own valuation. If a participant is dissatisfied with the price, it can withdraw a particular asset and surrender the matching BB shares and reduce the 3% cash purchase proportionately. If any participant is dissatisfied with the prices set for assets contributed by another they may withdraw from the program. All will fall within time schedules.
BB will then issue bonds based upon a percentage of the aggregate prices assigned to the assets retained, which will be either insured or guaranteed by the U.S. as to principal and interest. The amount of bonds issued will conform to provide the payment of interest at 4% available from the net earnings (after BB expenses) on the capital raised from the cash purchases of BB shares by participants, but not from any capital provided by the U.S.

This would not be the fabulous "Bad Bank." It would be a bank with assets in marketing flux, exempt from "mark to market," limited in operational scope and period of existence (unless extended). It would be a Private Bank for Banks only, with a limited time for subscriptions and transfers. Small banks could be accommodated as well, which might provide the most direct regional benefits.
It's obligations could have "sweeteners" (tax exempt, IRA benefited, etc.). BB shares would be transferrable only amongst participants and their values would be taken at their stated book value for participants balance sheets.
After the principal functions of "asset clearing" from the books of BB, the particpants could be required to purchase (on a proportionate basis) any shares originally taken by the U.S.; or the BB could be required to redeem them.
In that fashion the banks, privately, with public assistance, can work through their own problem resolutions.
I might add this proposal could be extended to insurors as well.
R. Richard Schweitzer
s24rrs@aol.com
]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 21:07:00 -0500
Here is a "public-private" mechanism that can be used to work out the problem of developing markets for assets that are frozen out of the market.
The Federal Government should not BUY anything more than it has already. It may use the guarantee function instead (with a limited exposure as set forth below)..
This is a highly simplified form for possible use.:
In former times, it was often called a "barrelhead agreement."
The U.S. should cause the formation of a type of quasi-mutual “bank” (Barrelhead Bank [BB]) that would be owned by all the participating banks, but structured along the lines of the FRS, but definetly not part of the FRS. This will be the basis of the “public” aspect supported by other action detailed below.
Each bank wishing to participate in "shedding" some classes of assets would transfer those assets to BB at a tentative valuation set by the participant and would receive a number (subject to future adjustment) of shares in Barrelhead Bank [BB]. In addition, the participant would purchase for CASH (pay to play) an additional number of shares (not subject to adjustment) equal to at least 3% of the valuation initially assigned to assets transferred.
Immediately upon establishment and completion of transfers, the participants would be entitled to claim the BB shares as assets in place of those transferred, but should set a reserve for adjustments. A Board would be established to review and set initial arbitrary prices on the assets received in accord with uniform standards uniformally applied to all transfers. While the U.S. could be a subscriber to a special class of shares, to provide greater capital depth, that is NOT recommended, but may turn out to be propitious.
Upon the establishment of the initial arbitrary price of assets transferred, the number of shares issued will be adjusted (up or down) from those set by the participants own valuation. If a participant is dissatisfied with the price, it can withdraw a particular asset and surrender the matching BB shares and reduce the 3% cash purchase proportionately. If any participant is dissatisfied with the prices set for assets contributed by another they may withdraw from the program. All will fall within time schedules.
BB will then issue bonds based upon a percentage of the aggregate prices assigned to the assets retained, which will be either insured or guaranteed by the U.S. as to principal and interest. The amount of bonds issued will conform to provide the payment of interest at 4% available from the net earnings (after BB expenses) on the capital raised from the cash purchases of BB shares by participants, but not from any capital provided by the U.S.

This would not be the fabulous "Bad Bank." It would be a bank with assets in marketing flux, exempt from "mark to market," limited in operational scope and period of existence (unless extended). It would be a Private Bank for Banks only, with a limited time for subscriptions and transfers. Small banks could be accommodated as well, which might provide the most direct regional benefits.
It's obligations could have "sweeteners" (tax exempt, IRA benefited, etc.). BB shares would be transferrable only amongst participants and their values would be taken at their stated book value for participants balance sheets.
After the principal functions of "asset clearing" from the books of BB, the particpants could be required to purchase (on a proportionate basis) any shares originally taken by the U.S.; or the BB could be required to redeem them.
In that fashion the banks, privately, with public assistance, can work through their own problem resolutions.
I might add this proposal could be extended to insurors as well.
R. Richard Schweitzer
s24rrs@aol.com
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/17663?source=feed#comment-385892 385892 Thu, 12 Feb 2009 13:15:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116681-graham-s-net-current-asset-value-method-in-today-s-market-turmoil?source=feed#comment-367420 367420
Is my recollection correct?]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 09:08:01 -0500
Is my recollection correct?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115372-what-to-buy-and-why-barron-s-2009-roundtable-part-ii?source=feed#comment-360218 360218 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:44:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115278-buffett-s-import-certificates-plan-could-pilot-the-economy-to-a-safe-landing?source=feed#comment-360203 360203
My guess is the ICs would be a violation of our treaty obligations.]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:22:06 -0500
My guess is the ICs would be a violation of our treaty obligations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114262-what-if-the-economic-model-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-353060 353060 MIT) on the failure of models. Much more incisive than the "pop"writers.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 07:34:47 -0500 MIT) on the failure of models. Much more incisive than the "pop"writers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106091-why-aig-was-in-the-cds-business?source=feed#comment-306813 306813
Sellers of latter day forms of CDS (where actually there was no true "swap" of "my risk for your risk," resulting in a comparative risk exchange) were "betting" with a third party against the "death" of a specific party with no requirement that the insured had any relation that might result in a loss from that "death."

When epidemics began, the costs of "deaths" went far beyond the losses payable to those who incurred actual losses.]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 15:55:03 -0500
Sellers of latter day forms of CDS (where actually there was no true "swap" of "my risk for your risk," resulting in a comparative risk exchange) were "betting" with a third party against the "death" of a specific party with no requirement that the insured had any relation that might result in a loss from that "death."

When epidemics began, the costs of "deaths" went far beyond the losses payable to those who incurred actual losses.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106041-secretary-paulson-does-the-right-thing-again?source=feed#comment-305910 305910
Also, a $ of added equity, will have more effect on viable credit extensions by a bank (subject to further reductions in assets values by write down/off) than a $ of bad asset removal.

What was the rationale for removing "toxic" assets and replace them with auction derived prices. To increase the viable equity, of course. Direct investment does that.

The next step in "pricing" consumer debt, will provide a benchmark (really a surveyor's monument) for valuing a major segment of bank and financial organizations' holdings. Consider how "credit card balances" have come to equal the "demand deposits" (checking accounts) in monetary measurements. Checking accounts are now largely used as "clearing accounts" for credit transactions and settlements, not for holding "money" balances. People no longer hold cash balances to the previous extents.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:49:30 -0500
Also, a $ of added equity, will have more effect on viable credit extensions by a bank (subject to further reductions in assets values by write down/off) than a $ of bad asset removal.

What was the rationale for removing "toxic" assets and replace them with auction derived prices. To increase the viable equity, of course. Direct investment does that.

The next step in "pricing" consumer debt, will provide a benchmark (really a surveyor's monument) for valuing a major segment of bank and financial organizations' holdings. Consider how "credit card balances" have come to equal the "demand deposits" (checking accounts) in monetary measurements. Checking accounts are now largely used as "clearing accounts" for credit transactions and settlements, not for holding "money" balances. People no longer hold cash balances to the previous extents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105819-fire-hank-paulson-now?source=feed#comment-305005 305005
Why has it not been seen that there are cases of "Too big to Manage," as well as "Too big to Fail?"]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:37:51 -0500
Why has it not been seen that there are cases of "Too big to Manage," as well as "Too big to Fail?"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84115-several-firms-come-to-defense-of-fannie-freddie?source=feed#comment-200426 200426 Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:36:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84059-recommending-pricesmart-in-light-of-sustained-store-momentum?source=feed#comment-200421 200421
Expand this article by analysis of inventory growth related to sales volume; changes in G&A; cash flow[?], etc.



]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:20:23 -0400
Expand this article by analysis of inventory growth related to sales volume; changes in G&A; cash flow[?], etc.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84095-fannie-and-freddie-lets-call-the-whole-thing-off?source=feed#comment-200417 200417
The impact would be more effective and far-reaching than the proposed "Housing bailout," and have a much lower long-term cost with lower "moral hazard."]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:08:05 -0400
The impact would be more effective and far-reaching than the proposed "Housing bailout," and have a much lower long-term cost with lower "moral hazard."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83821-gross-margin-drivers-at-potash-corp-part-ii?source=feed#comment-199461 199461 Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:14:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83821-gross-margin-drivers-at-potash-corp-part-ii?source=feed#comment-199459 199459
PRODUCTION OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHATE(S) CAN RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY TO INCREASED DEMAND. NOT SO EASY FOR POTASH. IT WILL TAKE A FEW YEARS OF SUSTAINED INCREASES IN DEMAND TO BRING ON NEW SOURCES, THOUGH SOME HAVE STARTED. IT TAKES A FEW YEARS TO OPEN A NEW "MINE."]]> Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:11:04 -0400
PRODUCTION OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHATE(S) CAN RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY TO INCREASED DEMAND. NOT SO EASY FOR POTASH. IT WILL TAKE A FEW YEARS OF SUSTAINED INCREASES IN DEMAND TO BRING ON NEW SOURCES, THOUGH SOME HAVE STARTED. IT TAKES A FEW YEARS TO OPEN A NEW "MINE."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83640-beware-of-crumbling-brics?source=feed#comment-197729 197729
If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.

It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms.]]> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:36:04 -0400
If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.

It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82773-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-193118 193118
Or have I missed it?]]> Thu, 26 Jun 2008 08:45:59 -0400
Or have I missed it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82217-global-inflation-rates?source=feed#comment-190587 190587 Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:32:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82217-global-inflation-rates?source=feed#comment-190585 190585 Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:30:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82217-global-inflation-rates?source=feed#comment-190582 190582
In fact the global inflation rate may be inaccurate.

Try 7%. A good measure is the number of hours of work (usually at some median wage net of taxes - direct and indirect) is required to obtain the basics of given standards of living.

Discl: Long YEN futures (Japan is not on this list!!)]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:29:04 -0400
In fact the global inflation rate may be inaccurate.

Try 7%. A good measure is the number of hours of work (usually at some median wage net of taxes - direct and indirect) is required to obtain the basics of given standards of living.

Discl: Long YEN futures (Japan is not on this list!!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82213-two-emerging-market-steel-plays-mechel-and-siderurgica?source=feed#comment-190577 190577
MTL "charts" are still reflecting the split (3-1) and its after effects.

SID may be getting too vertical for it's managements background, but they will likely bring in some new people for parts of the operations.

Discl: Long (for quite some time) SID & MTL]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:15:53 -0400
MTL "charts" are still reflecting the split (3-1) and its after effects.

SID may be getting too vertical for it's managements background, but they will likely bring in some new people for parts of the operations.

Discl: Long (for quite some time) SID & MTL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82104-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-188968 188968
Disclosure: Long MBI - so not antithetical.]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 08:06:25 -0400
Disclosure: Long MBI - so not antithetical.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81968-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-188293 188293 Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:32:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81787-a-personal-thank-you-to-momentum-investors?source=feed#comment-187551 187551
Where are the markets (users of) Potash (K)?

What part of the costs of the users' products consists of costs of K?

Are new or expanded users of K coming onstream (increasing plantings and acreages - mny marginal acres w/o added K)?

Are price margins of users products (crops) rising to match marginal uses of K?

How long does it take to bring on new K sources (8-10 years)?

Are there any source substitutes for K, as there are for the other two major ingredients of crop nutrients?

Disclosure: Long,Long POT, MON, JJA, JJG & DE]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 08:42:08 -0400
Where are the markets (users of) Potash (K)?

What part of the costs of the users' products consists of costs of K?

Are new or expanded users of K coming onstream (increasing plantings and acreages - mny marginal acres w/o added K)?

Are price margins of users products (crops) rising to match marginal uses of K?

How long does it take to bring on new K sources (8-10 years)?

Are there any source substitutes for K, as there are for the other two major ingredients of crop nutrients?

Disclosure: Long,Long POT, MON, JJA, JJG & DE]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81417-mid-year-picks-and-pans-from-barron-s-roundtable-part-ii?source=feed#comment-187520 187520 Wed, 18 Jun 2008 07:52:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81680-a-cheesy-options-combination-for-buffett-lovers?source=feed#comment-187513 187513
Currently, concentrate on the problems managements face in distribution - especially with KFT's diverse lines of goods, and refrigeration requirements.

Next compare the ROE of KFT (which I believe is somewhere below 10, with say HNZ which is somewhere above 30.

The probable scenario: A European purchase of KFT by a dairy goods specialist (Dannon?), followed by a break up and sell off of other lines to specific goods distributors (some of whom will be over-optimistic as to the value of brand names).

Possible net yield: est. $37 max.

Disclosure: Long KFT from spin off by MO]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 07:15:04 -0400
Currently, concentrate on the problems managements face in distribution - especially with KFT's diverse lines of goods, and refrigeration requirements.

Next compare the ROE of KFT (which I believe is somewhere below 10, with say HNZ which is somewhere above 30.

The probable scenario: A European purchase of KFT by a dairy goods specialist (Dannon?), followed by a break up and sell off of other lines to specific goods distributors (some of whom will be over-optimistic as to the value of brand names).

Possible net yield: est. $37 max.

Disclosure: Long KFT from spin off by MO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81731-eds-merger-will-help-hp-compete-against-ibm?source=feed#comment-187502 187502
HPQ management seems to recognize the need in longer term business planning to reduce its production and commodities operations, which have no "moat" left, and transition ("transform') to a pattern similar to that of IBM, and become reclassified in the IT field.

T'ain't easy!]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 07:01:39 -0400
HPQ management seems to recognize the need in longer term business planning to reduce its production and commodities operations, which have no "moat" left, and transition ("transform') to a pattern similar to that of IBM, and become reclassified in the IT field.

T'ain't easy!]]>