Incae

Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Ticking for REITs

anybody have debt/capital ratios>? which are shortable?


On May 21 12:50 PM On Going Concern wrote:

> Fighting Yoda has the a great point. Cap rates that lenders are using
> today are drastically higher than in the past three years. With higher
> cap rates higher, these properties can not support the inflated values
> that they were originally financed.
>
> On Apr 18 06:32 PM Fighting Yoda wrote:

On Precious Metals and the Euro

To clarify: I believe that this debt crisis will turn into a currency crisis. Theory of games take over as governments break rank in " global" monetary policy. TORO is suggesting that if a currency crisis indeed comes soon then precious metals ARE a good play??

The Fed's Free Money: Time to Go Long

This is not good, What is the exit strategy??? I wrote a paper on "there is not enough data on zero bound", meaning we dont have enough that to run a model. The Fed is flying blind here. Have you heard of a fork strategy? you try several things, the consequences vary for each measure taken until all come together into one big mess that the market quits.

In an Unpredictable Market, Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low

Greetings colleagues, now that the fed has done almost everything wall street has asked for, will the US devalue its currency overnight as an extreme measure? say 10% ? think about it, the trade account will demish as the elastic US goods outweight the price elasticity of the imports. I dont think the chinesse will come out loosers as the rembibi apprecaites in value their imports from singapore, taiwan, viernam, etc will become cheaper. Also they have VAT's, which are credit discounts, they could restablish them to make their exports less likely to be hurt by currency appreciation. Bush dynasty has taken the dollar to the floor and it will continue, IF the creditors blink at buying US debt i think the country has no option but to apply Protocol One, devalue drastically.

By Any Definition, a Crash

I apologize to TORO for introducing the precious metal subject, but i think this has to be discussed as investors look to make some money on the bear market.

part 2. gold/silver ratios historically has been 46-1. If CLH is right and gold trades at $500ozAu/$10ozSL, then the ratio will go back to historic ratios. But since we say the $750ozAu bounce up almost $100 in one day, silver looks to me that its time is overdue. Again, Toro, thanks, thats all.

By Any Definition, a Crash

CLH, GIVE AWAY PRICES? with the way this market is behaving your guess is as good as mine. Today we had ourselves 1,000 points, on friday we had another 1,000 point swing. Is this confirmation? no, usually bottoms are formed when the lazy portfolios start throwing the towel, that has not happened yet. Will they use this bounce to exit? we will see. Now, back to the SLV. It is strange, GOLD-silver historicall ratios have been much lower than the 80-1 we are seeing. Silver is being punished by industrial demand but once inflation starts to pump again will it be treated as a precious metal and come back to "normal ratios" ? Silver is the metal with the most upside as an asset from a deflation phase into a depresion phase economy ? I think so.

By Any Definition, a Crash

i have to congratulat e you colleague, you have been sharp so far. I wish you could say something on the precious metals bull run to come. I see SLV prices trading below physical value and 65 day mov avg. With todays pull it is extremely oversold. That word will be more common when the dow hits 7500 and bounces 1000 points in one day.

HQ Sustainable Maritime: Stock Looks Attractive

Impact on Pond Ownership> more dillution? likely scanario of how will be financed?

Of Wars and Strategic Metals

how about that OMG recommendation? What would be its book value now?

Avoid the 'Group Think' on Melco-Crown

Wouldnt be possible that HO wants to take this private? if it seems like a bargain to you , imagine him, now that some realtives are out of the picture

Why I'm Covering Some of My Short Positions

This is the reason de russell has not fallen more
Russell 2000 adds 34 materials, processing stocks, 21 companies the sector removed from index

Kelly: Sold S&P Puts, SIJ

SALUDOS DESDE PANAMA CITY PANAMA, DO YOU STILL LIKE NUTRACEA BELOW $3? I HEAR A BIG DEAL IN BRAZIL LOOMING. ALSO CHECK ON SCU , IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF REALIZING ITS VALUE. PROVEN RESERVES ARE THE KEY BUT CHECK ON HOW MUCH OTHERS ARE PAYING FOR SIMILAR PROPERTIES IN THE AREA. GOOD LUCK AND BULLISH ON TH E PANAMA CANAL BUSINESSES

Covered Bear and Lehman Shorts

Nutracea and Storm Cat son my top 2 specs for 2008. Lei que te gusta china farma, creo que te va a gustar Simcere de Goldman Sachs, si aplicas tu regla de +1 multiple on growth rate la encontraras undervalued. Es una de las empresas del index chino menos seguidas por los analistas. Feliz Navidad y un prospero portafolio 2008.
By Pol in Panama

Covered Bear and Lehman Shorts

Saludos desde el Canal de Panama , te mando uno para ti, check Nutracea and Storm Cat