locke

Housing Prices Expected to Bottom in 2010, 21% Off '06 Highs

"in what world does the price of a commodity rise 100% due to speculation while the supply is increasing, then only fall 21% while supply continues to increase."

Everything is relative. You overlooked the fact that the population is increasing faster than the supply of homes, the fact that there has been inflation through the entire run-up, the fact that the quality of homes is increasing, and the fact that our ability to create wealth is steadily increasing thanks to technology.

Also, a run-up of 100% only requires a fall of 50% to break even. A fall of 21% from the high is actually a fall to 158% of the original value. Inflation alone could account for a big chunk of that 58% appreciation.

Depending on my job situation, I'll start looking for my first home in 2010if the prices come down at a level in-line with this projection.