locke

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    • Thu Jan 17th 17:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Prices Expected to Bottom in 2010, 21% Off '06 Highs
      "in what world does the price of a commodity rise 100% due to speculation while the supply is increasing, then only fall 21% while supply continues to increase."

      Everything is relative. You overlooked the fact that the population is increasing faster than the supply of homes, the fact that there has been inflation through the entire run-up, the fact that the quality of homes is increasing, and the fact that our ability to create wealth is steadily increasing thanks to technology.

      Also, a run-up of 100% only requires a fall of 50% to break even. A fall of 21% from the high is actually a fall to 158% of the original value. Inflation alone could account for a big chunk of that 58% appreciation.

      Depending on my job situation, I'll start looking for my first home in 2010if the prices come down at a level in-line with this projection.
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    • Wed Jan 16th 16:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Downside Momentum Builds, What's Next?
      $100 oil means a wave of NEW buying... into cars like the Volt, into nuclear, solar, coal, and wind power. There is no question we can adapt. But if we can't, the price of oil will go down :-)
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    • Mon Dec 24th 13:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Closer Look At the Gold Price Chart
      Only a fool would consider a lack of financial training to be an advantage. Ignorance allows us to make ever-riskier investments without realizing the amount of risk we are assuming. In the right market conditions, that could mean higher returns resulting in delusions of grandeur, but risk eventually catches up with us.

      I have no financial training, but I draw caution, not confidence, from that fact. I am also extremely skeptical of anyone who thinks charts have reliable predictive ability. That's classic confirmation bias, if you ask me.
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    • Mon Dec 24th 13:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Closer Look At the Gold Price Chart
      No formal training is an advantage? I suppose that's the case, if ignorantly assuming more risk than you realize is considered an advantage. It certainly can mean more return and make you feel like a genius... until the risk catches up with you.

      Only a fool would heed the advice of someone who proudly trumpets his own ignorance, like this author.

      Disclaimer: I have no financial training, either, but I don't have the audacity to consider that an advantage.
      View article »
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