helplessobserver

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381 Comments

    • Tue Oct 28th 16:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sign of Recession: Canada's Banks Downshift Dividends
      In every locality there are two people who know what's going on. One is the local sheriff. His deputies watch, see and report everything that is shady or illegal. The other is the local banker. He watches and knows economic things; like a priest hearing confessions borrowers come in with their hopes and dreams. Big developments going up or coming down are quickly picked up by his radar. They are seldom caught off guard, so I think the Canadian banker's assessments are on target.
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    • Tue Oct 28th 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Motors and Chrysler: More Shenanigans
      Every dollar spent on the development of the electric Volt car is a dollar wasted. The vast expanse of America demands an auto that has access to high energy fuels. Such energy in electrical form is not practical. America's efficient use of electricity for the last 150 years is the result of appliances being connected to the power grid. My car gets 27 mpg and uses 5200 btu per mile. In electrical terms this is about 1.5 Kwh, not much load from the power grid, but a large load from a set of batteries. Batteries are OK for golf cars, not good for 60 mph travel on a busy US highway. Smart companies would design high efficiency engines that run on compressed natural gas or propane. Who does this? HONDA
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    • Mon Oct 27th 22:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are You Paying for Lehman CDS Losses?
      If this becomes a real big problem then action must be taken to invalidate all contracts where the CDS owner does not own the insured bonds. The "side bets" are the toxic part of this issue. Rumors have it that hedge funds bought up side bet protection and then sought to drive the company into bankruptcy collecting on both the short sales and the insurance policies.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 22:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ALT-A: The Coming Risk Abatement Disaster
      Happened in N. Virginia. Man lost his credit card. Later in the mail comes a $2000 check from a Title Company. They said that they had made a mistake in his closing costs hence the refund. Turns out a woman got a no doc loan on a $400000 townhouse using his credit history. All this went about without detection as she was making the payments.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 22:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Conference Calls Show Regional Banks Squeezing Homebuilders
      It looks like BBT has gotten a handle on its riskiest loans by shrinking the home and construction loan portfolio by about $5B. After taking a dive from $43 to $18 the stock has stabilized around $30 - $35. BBT will, in my opinion, be a survivor and come out of this mess a stronger bank.
      Full disclosure: own 1000 BBT shares, happily collecting a nice dividend.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 12:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Insurance Companies Be Part of the Bailout?
      Today Loews(L) stock is being slammed because of troubles with its flagship holding CNA Financial Corp. If James Tisch has to inject $1B into CNA, then we had better hunker down for a long financial storm.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ben Stein Watch: Oct. 26, 2008
      Risky,
      I also bet he could not now pass a sophmore class quiz in a MBA program of any rigor.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 11:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In the Fog of Volatility, the Notional Becomes Payable
      When do the EU banks think their $30M of LEH bonds will recover to $1T? My guess "not in God's lifetime". Very insightful post, thanks.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 09:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      One Reason Why Banks Are Not Lending
      This post is short, insightful and informative. To all enterprises cash flow is king and as the author points out it has not stopped completely even though the toxic assets have been marked down. As these cash flows increase the banks will mark up the asset's value and these flows will be added directly to the bottom line.
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    • Fri Oct 24th 16:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Germans Suffer from Exposure in Iceland
      Felix,
      Thanks for these interesting loan statistics.
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    • Fri Oct 24th 11:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bailout for Berkshire?
      Regarding the BRK puts on the SP, Buffett knows we are in a long term secular bear market. These secular bears(and bulls) are long term affairs, 15 to 20 years, in duration. Our current secular bear began in 2000 so we are about half way thru it. Between now and 2020 there will be several cyclical bull runs that will return us to or near the old high of 1500. When these puts expire the SP will be in a new secular bull market, repeat bull market, well above 1500. Above 1500 these puts will be worth a lot less than the premium they generated. Remember Buffett takes the long term view of things. He knows all about secular bull and bear markets having invested thru several of them since 1950s.
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    • Mon Oct 20th 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Dead In The Water
      One of the most amazing things I have run across in a long investing career is the new confidence the markets have in Latin America and their ability to do useful things. My experience always was that investing money south of the Rio Grande was risky with most of it misappropriated and/or subject to plain old stealing. The confidence in the BRIC nations was new; somehow I must have been missing something. Well maybe not, as this article points out. Also drilling a such depths one encounters high temperatures which is hard on drilling equipment.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 22:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deploying Paulson’s Capital: The Strong and Weak of It
      As a shareholder I know BBT very well. I hope the government does not stink up BBT with some plan to have them inject their excess capital into their sacred New York banks. Bloomberg is already reporting big chunks of federal money lent to AIG has been transferred to GS, MS and New York Banks.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 15:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Coming Soon: The $600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting
      Next Tuesday, Oct. 21, we will find out who has to pay the piper on the Lehman debt. If AIG wrote its CDS's naked then we taxpayer are going to take the hit. We, I think, have a lot to worry on this score since AIG does not seem how to do anything right except to plan and execute toga parties.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 10:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bad Mortgages Are Only the Beginning
      McBlue's analysis sheds more light in the fewest words.
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