helplessobserver

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381 Comments

    • Wed Jan 30th 16:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Models Show $700 Billion In Credit Losses
      Very informative. We are going to need a lot of rental units until this puppy is laid to rest.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 22:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - Subprime Outlook
      The shrinking bank capital base will restrict lending and lead to a credit induces recession in 2008. Comments by GS top economist late last year. Who can argue with that prediction? Credit induced recessions can lead to economic depressions when buying power dries up in the consumer market place.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 22:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - Foreclosure Impact
      Judy,
      Great deal of good info on your post, keep it up, save us the travel.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 29th 19:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ADS Drops 35%: Attractive Buying Opportunity
      Very interesting post.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 19:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My 2008 Predictions for Financial Catastrophe
      Insurance only works when insured losses are small and not concentrated. Neither of the above apply to today's credit derivative swaps situation. Swap owners, your paper is in peril as the counterparties shed their responsibilities in bankruptcy.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 18:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      (Bill) Grossly Overstated
      If nothing is being "lost to the system" how come MER has written down the value of bonds insured by CDSs issued by ACA Capital? In the wings Ambac and MBIA arpreparing to shed counterparty responsibilities on their swaps on actual, not notional, billions in CDOs. A few years back the swaps nearly brought down the financial system, now it is getting a second chance.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Media Coverage of the Mortgage Crisis
      Your article is right on target. Here in Virginia a U Haul operator leased a unit to a very happy couple heading for California. They had bought a new county home for $130k, held it for 9 months and sold out for $275k. One of our realtors stopped her office on an errand found an impatient customer, showed and sold a house and picked up a $1500 commission for 45 minutes work.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 29th 09:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Save Those Bond Insurers, and Avert a Bigger Crash
      Ken,
      You and your article are right on target. I do not think we have the resources to do the three part program, therefore emergency measures will have to be involked. Bond holders will have to retain their holdings, bank reserves requirements will be lowered, BRK will pick up the muni bond insurance ASAP. Then when the CDS storm hits we will see a "CDS holiday", where regulators will force all parties into a zero sum game. Winnings and losses will be pared on all parties as the contracts are closed out.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 29th 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Moody's CEO Wins the Blame-Shifting Prize
      High power, high salary and high egos in the Wall Stree Offices, but no gumshoes visiting neighborhoods to see what is really going on. Neighborhood residents in Atlanta knew things were not normal when houses sold a nose bleed prices, but no one moved in to claim the prize. Analyse at a distance if you want to get it wrong. Hey there are no 4 Star Resturants in those Atlanta neighborhoods - all is forgiven.
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    • Mon Jan 28th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Rogue Traders and Economic Capital
      Most of this banking stuff is for the pros. Resting on common sense my question is: Why are not all assets and liabilities posted on the bank and corporate balance sheet? They used to be in the old days. I wonder if the banking professionals even know how incrediably stupid they look. Ah yes, Puff the Magic Dragon makes those swimming numbers on the computer monitors seem dreamy and keeps the viewer feel real good. Let the good times continue to roll.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 27th 11:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Past Comes Back to Haunt Us
      A few weeks back Dennis Gartman noted that GS is a sell because the easy money enviroment that made for easy profits has changed. The same observation applies to all the other companies that thrived on the money gusher. Even GS's top economist said a credit induced recession is underway due to the shrinkage in money center bank capital. Two timely and smart observations by two smart guys.
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    • Sun Jan 27th 10:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Capital One Goes Countrywide: Cataclysmic Drop on the Horizon?
      You point out an overlooked cost to the transaction companies, i.e. shaking the trees for payments. We keep being told these companies are immune to the current credit problems. It does not look good for the Visa IPO, or MasterCard stock.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 25th 11:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citi Analyst on Ambac Got It Way Wrong
      Has anyone ever seen an analyst who knows what is going on? Early in my investing I learned a costly lesson, if MER is recommending a stock, it is a good short - why, because their recommendation was designed to pump up the stock price to get more investment banking business from the company. Sell recommendations never crossed the lips of any MER analyst or broker I ever dealt with. Stock prices follow trends so a chart is worth a thousand earnings forecasts. If your favorite is crashing, get out, or you will be road kill like the long term investors in the monolines. Just an opinion, not a sermon.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 25th 00:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Investment Banking Mergers Are Doomed To Fail
      You sold me
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 24th 15:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read It Here First: CDO Lust Undercut AAA Success
      The bond insurers are not going to fail. They will limp along with enough strength to insure their bond insurance keeps chaos from developing the muni, repeat munibond market. Now the CDO market is different. A big CDO insurance holiday may be necessary to give time to spread around the gains and losses among the stupid players who thought they were the smartest guys in the room and did not need to check the credit worthiness of the counter parties.
      View article »
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