helplessobserver

Total Rating:
+2 / 0

381 Comments

    • Thu Jan 24th 14:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Have Bank Stocks Hit Bottom?
      I can say that BBT shares have hit bottom and are being upwardly repriced as you read this. A clean balance sheet, no sub-prime toxic waste, a recent 9% increase in the dividend and an excellent Q4 earnings report has woke up investors. At its low the 6.7% dividend looked pretty good to the 3.25% return on treasuries. Steady earnings and a further move into the insurance business are my safe harbor predictions for 2008.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 22:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Default Swaps: Where the Real Action's At
      Sometime in the future we on the sidelines will learn what is being discussed right now in the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. In my opinion the potential collapse of the CDS market is topic 1,2, and on and on. FDR had his bank holiday and some type of CDS holiday will be required to sort out this mess as the stock market dives, becoming a source of funds. Warren Buffett needed 4 years to unwind 23,000 of General Re swap contracts worth only $400M, in what he said, was a quite and orderly market.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 21:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Can MBIA's Triple A Rating Make Sense?
      Herb,
      Somehow these investment experts think these insurers are just another financial company we can let go down the tube and let fail. It won"t happen until another back stop is in place. In my opinion these companies are "too important to fail" and may live on life support, but live they will. Ackman is playing a dangerous game betting against the regulators.
      p.s.
      I feel sorry for you when you have to put up with Dennis on CNBC.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 23rd 21:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      These Stocks Are Attractive Amidst This Selloff
      Obviously you don't know much about NBR management. They are looting the company and driving it into the ground. Even Cramer has shut up about this sorry company. If CEO Gene Isenberg, one of America's the highest paid, ever leaves the company there may be some hope. Yes buy NBR, then watch DO, NE and RIG enrich their shareholders.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 21:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Berkshire, GE, Anhueser Busch: Stick With The Best
      Your recommendations meet the stock adage buy "quality, quality and quality". Buffet's move into bond insurance is a master stroke of investment genius. He will pick off this slow growth but steady earning industry and tuck it neatly into his other businesses. Yes, soar with the vulcher, don't become road kill.
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    • Tue Jan 22nd 16:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MBIA: The Longs Fight Back
      At Tuesday's close BRK.B is soaring. They do not tell me why, but candlestick chart experts will call it "an upside outside day". This indicates the insiders got some good news, in a few days "the helpless" will find out what will cause increased future returns. A guess is it will be in the debt insurance business.
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    • Tue Jan 22nd 14:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MBIA: The Longs Fight Back
      MBIA is up big time right now. The Barron's article provides information on the bond insurers that goes mostly unreported in the press - the profitibility of their ongoing business. The powers that be do not want this company in bankruptcy, so it will not go bankrupt - you can count on that. But, why mess with road kill, soar and feast with the vulture, buy BRK as Buffett will own this very good industry five year down the road.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Short-Term Hurdles Become Long-Term Obstacles
      Inger,
      In researching a paper on the Great Depression I read many articles in the newly launched(1930) Fortune Magazine. There was little worry expressed in these articles and the "current recession" was deemed only a temporary down turn blip. Some of those articles could be republished today with little modification in their optimism. Credit induced recessions are the worst kind. In 1930 credit was destroyed in depreciating farm land, causing evaporation of consumer deposits in thousands of country banks. Today credit is being destroyed by depreciating commercial and residential real estate. The resuts are the same - the destruction of bank balance sheets.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 13:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BofA's Countrywide Acquisition: Dumb And Dumber
      Since banks usually earn 15 to 20 percent on their investments, why is 10 percent a gold mine? BAC clearly had their arm twisted; most merger partners spend a lot of time going over the books, not the milisec that BAC used. Buffet has said it took 4 years for him to unravel just $400M of credit default swaps General Re had on its books. I wonder how you make money when your staff is on the phone all day trying to contact the owners and settle the swaps?
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    • Sun Jan 20th 19:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Counter-Party Risk
      Warren Buffett learned about CDSs when he bought out General Re. Finding $400M of them in the portfolio he ordered them unwound ASAP. Due to the cumbersome way they are traded it took him 4 years to track down all the counter parties and settle up in a non voltile market. It is my estimate that real panic will soon hit the market as people find out the insurance isn't worth the paper its written on and they try to salvage what they can of their gambles. Barry is right about counter party risk, if soured investments wound us, soured CDS will finish the job.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 18th 12:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Will Recover
      Clearly the best on-line trading platform. I am also a TDAmeri and BAC customer and find ETFC superior in all ways. Their A-Z list speaks volumes about the condition of the market. My only complaint is they don't include option prices on their MarketCaster basic quote service.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      This 'Meltdown' Has Gone Mainstream
      The CDS business is real troublesome. The garden variety is troublesome enough, but a market exists for synthetic CDS, where existing contracts are bundled up into new securities. A risk officer may think Bank of America is his swaps counterparty, but it may actually be some hedge fund feeding off premiums and planning a quick exit if called upon to accept the bonds and continue payments. Academics may think this is a zero sum game, but in the real world people do not live up to their obligations leaving someone holding the bag.
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    • Tue Jan 15th 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MBIA, Ambac: Short Interest in Bond Insurers
      These shorts had better look out. MBIA and the other bond insurers are not going out of business. They can lose in two ways. First is a financial collapse that will occur if the insurers are left to fail. In the the disarray I wish them luck finding their counter parties to collect their profits. Second, once the market sees the stocks won't collapse there will be a panic to cover the positions, once again a loser for the shorts.
      These positions are like playing catch with a bottle of nitroglycerine.

      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 19:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Financial Writedowns Impact U.S Government Revenues?
      Providing tax refunds to white knight companies is one way to raid the treasury to pay for the sub-prime mess.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 19:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Estimating the Risk in Citigroup Stock and Bonds
      The government help here will be in:
      a. providing forebearance on regulatory capital requirements
      b. supplying all additional capital to allow the bank to continue normal business lending
      Its a sham, but it will work.
      View article »
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