helplessobserver

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381 Comments

    • Wed Sep 17th 13:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Ugly Out in the Markets
      Everyone should be concerned with the bear raids on European Banks. They might just let a couple fail and clean out accounts in U.S. Banks.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 13:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The AIG Bailout: Advice from Buffett, Munger and Grantham
      Buffett cleaned up Gen Re's CDS positions after buying the company. This is where he learned his lessons on swaps. His paper loss now is on put options he wrote on the SP 500 due in 20 years, real long term leaps! We are in year eight of a secular bear market, with eight more years to go with the SP index range bound between 900 and 1500. This means by 2020 we will be in a new secular bull market and the puts he sold will expire worthless. In the mean time he will use his $4M premium to generate earnings for BRK shareholders.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 06:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Landscape: Writedowns, Losses and Capital Raised
      Two fin companies not on your list, BBT and BRK. Smart investors soar with the eagles and avoid being the road kill. Sounds like HSBC will soon be spotted on the highway.
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    • Mon Sep 15th 10:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: No Chapter 7, Yet
      From what I read the derivatives match up session was a self interest zoo. With all the yelling and screaming and price jack ups, nothing was accomplished.
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    • Mon Sep 15th 01:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's the BofA / Merrill Synergy?
      Jeff, it is an all stock deal and you are right on the money. With CFC and MER's toxic waste there is no room for good assets on BAC's balance sheet. Thain is an engineer and thinks carefully and logically. Lewis is a banker and is in over his head. He came to a gun fight with armed with a knife.
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    • Mon Sep 15th 00:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thain's Elegant Exit
      The difference between Mr. Thain and the other people running Wall Street is Mr. Thain is an engineer. Introduction to Engineering 101 bangs students in the head and forces them to start thinking logically. It is not an easy course, most engineering students wash out without a degree due to the academic rigor. Unfortunately they then turn to business where the mathematics is linear(advanced arithmetic)and logical thinking is not required.
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    • Mon Sep 15th 00:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: Hubris Kills
      The function of a recession is to return assets to their rightful owners, namely those who can afford them. As the tide goes out these pretend owners are seen not even owning bathing suits. Berkshire Hathaway is working overtime sifting thru all this road kill. Now this secular bear market has at least another eight years to run(the last one ran from 1966 to 1982)so BRK does not have to be in a hurry clearing the roads.
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    • Fri Sep 12th 13:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BAC's Ken Lewis Mulls Another Deal as Lehman Reaches Brink
      All BAC is trying to do is become really "too big to fail". Obviously Lewis does not know the difference between value and price. This bank is bankrupt, just look how they are treating their credit card accounts using every device to extract capital from card holders, laying off thousands of employees etc. A healthy bank like BBT needs not resort to these stringent capital conservation actions.
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    • Fri Sep 12th 13:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: Dead Firm Walking
      You are right about merging investment banks with other companies. Back in the commodity bubble of the '80s the big commodity trading company, Phillips Brothers, bought out ailing investment bank Salomons Bros. Later Salomon takes over PhiBros in the "smart takes it from strong sequence". In the end Salomon fails and disappears from the scene in a big crooked bond pricing scheme. For many readers today's events are new, to us old time observers it is the same old crap coming around again.
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    • Fri Sep 12th 12:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Bubble
      The solution to this hedge fund mania is to keep your bets hedged to protect capital. Just before RIMM reported Q2 earnings I bought 100 shares @139, sold the Oct 140 call at 15.00, then bought a Sep 125 put for 3.00. My goal was to capture as much of the $1500 call premium as possible. As often happens the hedge funds sold off the stock to 110, I sold out at 118 on a rebound. All but $700 of my $2100 loss was covered by the depreciated call, my put added $300 profit for a total loss of $400 of my $13900 capital position. Unlike un-hedged investors I still have my ball and bat for a new game.
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    • Wed Sep 10th 14:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Berkshire Stopped Insuring Bank Deposits Above FDIC Limit?
      Buy BRK and soar with the eagle, don't be the roadkill. Buffett's eagle eye sees tasty red meat at bargain prices ready to be scooped up at pennies on the dollar.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buy, Sell or Hold: Nucor Is No Falling Knife
      Don't panic ubet, the magnitude of this decline will insure a slow price climb once the selling is exhausted. We are in the eighth year of a secular bear market and have about eight years left. Most people thought the recent run up in prices to be a new bull, but it is only a cyclical bull within this bear. From 1966 to 1982 the secular bear capped prices on the DJI at 1000 five times before a new bull emerged in 1982 which ran until 2000.
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    • Sun Sep 7th 14:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Closer Look at the Treasury's GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Plan
      Patsy, if you used the same brilliance in investing that you used in constructing your post you would not be a loser. I quit listening to brokers years ago when I saw a midwest broker selling International Harvester bonds to unsuspecting farmers shortly before IH declared bankruptcy. As they say in the trade "they were moving the product". Yes sir, right off Edward Jone's balance sheet on to the farmer's and collecting commissions to boot.
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    • Sun Sep 7th 14:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ospraie's Poor Portfolio Weighting: XTO Contributes Major Loss to Fund
      All these risk sharing schemes all look good on paper and get you an A on your school papers. They all, however, rest on a faulty foundation in that they assume stable markets. Portfolio insurance assumed airline pilots and doctors would remove the risk from large investment portfolios by their unlimited buying in the SP futures markets. Many a professor smiled and wrote "good work" as he fixed his A grade on the soon to be minted MBA's paper. As we later found out this risk control technique did not work as it was supposed to and millions were lost in the chaotic futures markets it created.
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    • Thu Sep 4th 22:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      National City: Paying Customers To Close Credit Lines Smacks of Desperation
      These are strange times. I think you will be seeing lenders letting borrowers become "house sitters" and may even pay them to stay in the lender's house. A vacant house deteriorates rapidly and with no ready market, it makes sense to keep it occupied. A few foreclosures can be handled, but a tidal wave requires new thinking.
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