t-bird

Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut

Several years ago I heard that since the mid 20's when commmercial air travel commenced the aggregate loss by all U.S. airlines was over $200 billion...

I would not invest in any airline stock as you are guaranteed that you will eventually lose $$$! Like the financial and medical industry the aviation industry must be completely be reorganized. All three industries are poorly operated and even though pilots do not nowhere come near to what the other two industries earn, all three need a complete overhaul!!!

Full disclosure, I was employed with Eastern Airlines in the '70's...R.I.P. EAL!

Prime Mortgages Are Also Going Sour

gabe borens.....Do not know what you have been drinking but I sure would like some!!! LOL! 4.5% 4th qtr. growth in GDP...That is one wager I would take in a skinny minute!!!

Why GM Is Ready for a Rebound

Good Article.

One problem. There are few people out there who can qualify to purchase a GM or for that matter any other auto mfg. car now.

With anemic demand...how will GM and others do?

The Congressional Bailout of Madoff's Investors

Let me get this right...Bailout investors who thought they would receive a consistent double digit return on their $.

To become a Madoff client one learned of his expertise by word of mouth @ the yacht club, golf course etc... Big Secret; only the PRIVILEDGED are awarded the opportunity to invest in this company.


Greed!!! Bet these same folks if they had doubled their $ would have shared with all of us incompetents!!! Risk is RISK...REALIZE you have been had and you and yours are not TOO BIG TO FAIL!!!

Bill Gross: Dividend Stocks and Bonds Make Most Sense Now

Bill Gross wrote: " “Non Appétit,” not Bon Appétit, will become the apt description for the American consumer, and significant parts of the global economy, including the U.S. Because this is so, short-term policy rates will be kept low for longer than cyclical norms, and the outlook for risk assets – stocks, high yield bonds, and commercial and residential real estate will involve just that – risk. Investors should stress secure income offered by bonds and stable dividend-paying equities. Consumer Cuisinart consumption is a relic of the past."

RMetzler replied: "1) Inflation to some degree is inevitable meaning interest rates will be raised soon enough. However, if asset values decline continues due to downward pressure on wages from rising labor costs in the developing world and an equalizing of wages in the rich world to be on par with the emerging economies, bonds are a slam dunk. The asset value deflation is, of course, going to be most prominent in the real estate market."


Both of these statements are right on the $$$...Also pay close attention to the real estate market...Residential real estate in the $500K and up category is now taking a beating. The commercial real estate sector bubble is declining with much more to come...

Creating Debt to Reduce Debt Doesn't Work

300 bank and S&L failures by the end of the year? This estimate was provided earlier this year. Will see if the estimate holds true...

Has Housing Reached Bottom?

Good article...With the latest increase in housing starts; would like to find out how many of these starts are speculation construction versus sold (custom) construction. My guess would be more than 95% would be sold construction as any builder in his sane mind would not start a speck project in today's environment. F.D. I am in the real estate business and the contractors I associate with are only starting custom projects, no specks!

When Will Housing Prices Return to Previous Highs?

Very good information. Your research was extremely thorough. One point you made early sums up this entire discussion

George and the other George's in this world are not making the $ they were accumulating several years ago. With lending regulations much more strict, no more non-recourse loans etc. I agree with the author that it will be many years, possibly more than ten b-4 housing comes back.

Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing

Crewman...
Do not know if you are still reading this but I like your attitude.

Consumer demand because of deleveraging will be a major factor going forward. Many of the old ways of making $ will go by the wayside and there will be new opportunities in the next ten years that have not even been thought of as yet. Green energy going forward has terrific possibilities. I am in my mid 50's and was able to semi-retire early because I was able to take advantage of an escalating real estate market for over 30 years. That segment of continued growth in the R.E. market is over for @ least a generation as all the crap is removed from the system...

Good luck to you as by your attitude and hunger I do not believe you will have to miss too many meals going forward! LOL

Some Thoughts on Jim Cramer (aka Mr. Market)

Cramer is a good source for some stock picks. Just use due diligence on acting on his selections.

His real estate acumen however leaves much to be desired. Mr. Cramer missed the housing bubble collapse in late '06 early '07 by more than nine months. I am a Realtor and real estate investor and by mid '06, I saw the crash coming. Mr. Cramer refused to announce the bubble had burst until the 4th qtr. of '07...

His prediction for the housing bottom on June 30, 2009 should likewise be taken with a healthy dose of reality and due diligence...

Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing

Crewman:
You Stated:

T-bird - don't underestimate the crewman's skills...I'm goooooood. I stand by my 3-6 year prediction.

I do not hesitate to underestimate your skills and you are probably one of the "best". Even though your customer may want to buy from you, they may not be able to comply... What I do know is that demand for whatever you are selling will not return to levels seen from '03-06 for many, many years...I am writing from experience...No brag, just fact!!!

Pennsylvania REIT: A Bargain in the Retail Sphere

Everything the author presented was based on the rear view mirror approach to what has previously transpired.

One retail analyst suggested that there is currently on a national basis, 2 billion square feet of excess retail space which will disappear in the next five years. This prediction was made last fall. So far with cos. like Circuit City, Linens and Things, and not to mention the auto dealerships being dissolved this estimate is credible. I would refrain from any REIT unless the entity does 100% of their business with the Fed. The author appears to be in his early 30's and maybe he is textbook smart; but he needs to learn to be street smart...

Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing

Crewman.
I was a bonus and commission guy until '04 when I hung it up and semi-retired. You stated:

"Well (no news flash here), we bonus and commission guys are gone for a while leaving only the relatively few high net worth folks to bid on all these multi-million dollar homes for sale. We bonus/commission guys will be back and God-willing will be making big incomes and buying expensive homes again - my guess is that this will take at least 3-6 years. So for all those with multi-million dollars homes - the big question will be whether all of you can hold onto your homes and continue to make the big mortgage payment until such time as us bonus guys get our big incomes back. If all of you can, then the pricing will hold up well; if many can't hold on, then prices will retreat to pre-2003 levels. Having been in the market and knowing how vulnerable so many owners are in that market, my guess is the later."

I know you must feel the bonus boys will be back in 3-6 years. More likely, 10-15 years or longer. Demand for whatever you are hawking will not be there in sufficient quantity for many, many years to justify the incomes. I do agree with the balance of your reply though...

Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing

This is a case of taking everything you read with a healthy dose of salt...The author of this story should receive the Mark Twain award for over dramatized fiction!!!

High End Home Market Still Has Further to Fall

Very good article. Most people do not see nor do they comprehend what you are saying in this article. I have built or renovated eight homes over the last 32 years. From my first home in '77 @ $30,500 to the last house I sold in '05 for $2.4M...many people felt that by selling real estate they were ENTITLED to a positive return on their investment.

This as we all know now is no longer true and will become painfully evident to many as time passes...