t-bird's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/133274/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175272-case-shiller-home-prices-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-778445 778445
My wife is a longtime Realtor in the Charleston, SC area with over 20 years experience. We are both semi-retired and I trade equities for income. We have a nice home bought in '05 in an upscale neighborhood. We also have no mortgage but desire to downsize. In the Fall of '07 I could have sold my home for $1,150,000 based on sold comps in my neighborhood. Today, these same homes are selling for $850-900K. These figures are very likely to decline further as we go into '10. I see this same scenario occurring in the Carolinas and Georgia, but I do realize there may be exceptions as all real estate is local and there may be some areas experiencing price appreciation.

There isToo much uncertainty with an over leveraged Fed to provide confidence that home prices will increase in the next one to two years. Of course I can and will probably sell @ these lower prices, knowing that I can get another property at a distressed price either through foreclosure or a short sale.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:44:38 -0500
My wife is a longtime Realtor in the Charleston, SC area with over 20 years experience. We are both semi-retired and I trade equities for income. We have a nice home bought in '05 in an upscale neighborhood. We also have no mortgage but desire to downsize. In the Fall of '07 I could have sold my home for $1,150,000 based on sold comps in my neighborhood. Today, these same homes are selling for $850-900K. These figures are very likely to decline further as we go into '10. I see this same scenario occurring in the Carolinas and Georgia, but I do realize there may be exceptions as all real estate is local and there may be some areas experiencing price appreciation.

There isToo much uncertainty with an over leveraged Fed to provide confidence that home prices will increase in the next one to two years. Of course I can and will probably sell @ these lower prices, knowing that I can get another property at a distressed price either through foreclosure or a short sale.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175314-how-to-trade-the-rest-of-the-year-goldman-sachs?source=feed#comment-778406 778406 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:28:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175060-another-crisis-looms-right-around-the-corner?source=feed#comment-776785 776785
Can you believe we are having a bubble within a bubble? Trend is back to more debt!!!

If you own stock...Take your profits nimbly and quickly. In this environment, be a trader not an investor, for those who dally, may see their profits and investments evaporate!]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 08:45:17 -0500
Can you believe we are having a bubble within a bubble? Trend is back to more debt!!!

If you own stock...Take your profits nimbly and quickly. In this environment, be a trader not an investor, for those who dally, may see their profits and investments evaporate!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174816-trying-to-understand-airline-executive-compensation?source=feed#comment-774929 774929
What investor in their sane mind would want to invest in an airline stock knowing full well that the company is destined to lose $$$ going forward. And yes, this includes Southwest, though I admit they try to be innovative and try to develop new methods to stem the chronic losses this industry has suffered. Any investor who purchases an airline stock for any reason other than a short term trade is a damn fool!!!

Full disclosure, I was employed with Eastern Airlines in the early 70's while in college so I do have some knowledge of the industry... ]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:35:30 -0500
What investor in their sane mind would want to invest in an airline stock knowing full well that the company is destined to lose $$$ going forward. And yes, this includes Southwest, though I admit they try to be innovative and try to develop new methods to stem the chronic losses this industry has suffered. Any investor who purchases an airline stock for any reason other than a short term trade is a damn fool!!!

Full disclosure, I was employed with Eastern Airlines in the early 70's while in college so I do have some knowledge of the industry... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170295-airlines-some-costs-they-can-t-and-shouldn-t-cut?source=feed#comment-739043 739043
I would not invest in any airline stock as you are guaranteed that you will eventually lose $$$! Like the financial and medical industry the aviation industry must be completely be reorganized. All three industries are poorly operated and even though pilots do not nowhere come near to what the other two industries earn, all three need a complete overhaul!!!

Full disclosure, I was employed with Eastern Airlines in the '70's...R.I.P. EAL!]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 08:52:48 -0500
I would not invest in any airline stock as you are guaranteed that you will eventually lose $$$! Like the financial and medical industry the aviation industry must be completely be reorganized. All three industries are poorly operated and even though pilots do not nowhere come near to what the other two industries earn, all three need a complete overhaul!!!

Full disclosure, I was employed with Eastern Airlines in the '70's...R.I.P. EAL!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157385-prime-mortgages-are-also-going-sour?source=feed#comment-639497 639497
gabe borens.....Do not know what you have been drinking but I sure would like some!!! LOL! 4.5% 4th qtr. growth in GDP...That is one wager I would take in a skinny minute!!!]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:59:51 -0400
gabe borens.....Do not know what you have been drinking but I sure would like some!!! LOL! 4.5% 4th qtr. growth in GDP...That is one wager I would take in a skinny minute!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148155-why-gm-is-ready-for-a-rebound?source=feed#comment-583668 583668
One problem. There are few people out there who can qualify to purchase a GM or for that matter any other auto mfg. car now.

With anemic demand...how will GM and others do?]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 13:40:29 -0400
One problem. There are few people out there who can qualify to purchase a GM or for that matter any other auto mfg. car now.

With anemic demand...how will GM and others do?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147008-the-congressional-bailout-of-madoff-s-investors?source=feed#comment-575348 575348
To become a Madoff client one learned of his expertise by word of mouth @ the yacht club, golf course etc... Big Secret; only the PRIVILEDGED are awarded the opportunity to invest in this company.


Greed!!! Bet these same folks if they had doubled their $ would have shared with all of us incompetents!!! Risk is RISK...REALIZE you have been had and you and yours are not TOO BIG TO FAIL!!!]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:04:07 -0400
To become a Madoff client one learned of his expertise by word of mouth @ the yacht club, golf course etc... Big Secret; only the PRIVILEDGED are awarded the opportunity to invest in this company.


Greed!!! Bet these same folks if they had doubled their $ would have shared with all of us incompetents!!! Risk is RISK...REALIZE you have been had and you and yours are not TOO BIG TO FAIL!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146693-bill-gross-dividend-stocks-and-bonds-make-most-sense-now?source=feed#comment-573129 573129
RMetzler replied: "1) Inflation to some degree is inevitable meaning interest rates will be raised soon enough. However, if asset values decline continues due to downward pressure on wages from rising labor costs in the developing world and an equalizing of wages in the rich world to be on par with the emerging economies, bonds are a slam dunk. The asset value deflation is, of course, going to be most prominent in the real estate market."


Both of these statements are right on the $$$...Also pay close attention to the real estate market...Residential real estate in the $500K and up category is now taking a beating. The commercial real estate sector bubble is declining with much more to come...]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:03:41 -0400
RMetzler replied: "1) Inflation to some degree is inevitable meaning interest rates will be raised soon enough. However, if asset values decline continues due to downward pressure on wages from rising labor costs in the developing world and an equalizing of wages in the rich world to be on par with the emerging economies, bonds are a slam dunk. The asset value deflation is, of course, going to be most prominent in the real estate market."


Both of these statements are right on the $$$...Also pay close attention to the real estate market...Residential real estate in the $500K and up category is now taking a beating. The commercial real estate sector bubble is declining with much more to come...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145729-creating-debt-to-reduce-debt-doesn-t-work?source=feed#comment-565497 565497 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:56:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143617-has-housing-reached-bottom?source=feed#comment-550006 550006 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:38:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142915-when-will-housing-prices-return-to-previous-highs?source=feed#comment-545267 545267
George and the other George's in this world are not making the $ they were accumulating several years ago. With lending regulations much more strict, no more non-recourse loans etc. I agree with the author that it will be many years, possibly more than ten b-4 housing comes back. ]]> Sat, 13 Jun 2009 13:19:59 -0400
George and the other George's in this world are not making the $ they were accumulating several years ago. With lending regulations much more strict, no more non-recourse loans etc. I agree with the author that it will be many years, possibly more than ten b-4 housing comes back. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142395-jumbo-mortgage-activity-increasing?source=feed#comment-543647 543647 Do not know if you are still reading this but I like your attitude.

Consumer demand because of deleveraging will be a major factor going forward. Many of the old ways of making $ will go by the wayside and there will be new opportunities in the next ten years that have not even been thought of as yet. Green energy going forward has terrific possibilities. I am in my mid 50's and was able to semi-retire early because I was able to take advantage of an escalating real estate market for over 30 years. That segment of continued growth in the R.E. market is over for @ least a generation as all the crap is removed from the system...

Good luck to you as by your attitude and hunger I do not believe you will have to miss too many meals going forward! LOL]]> Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:13:30 -0400 Do not know if you are still reading this but I like your attitude.

Consumer demand because of deleveraging will be a major factor going forward. Many of the old ways of making $ will go by the wayside and there will be new opportunities in the next ten years that have not even been thought of as yet. Green energy going forward has terrific possibilities. I am in my mid 50's and was able to semi-retire early because I was able to take advantage of an escalating real estate market for over 30 years. That segment of continued growth in the R.E. market is over for @ least a generation as all the crap is removed from the system...

Good luck to you as by your attitude and hunger I do not believe you will have to miss too many meals going forward! LOL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142816-some-thoughts-on-jim-cramer-aka-mr-market?source=feed#comment-543587 543587
His real estate acumen however leaves much to be desired. Mr. Cramer missed the housing bubble collapse in late '06 early '07 by more than nine months. I am a Realtor and real estate investor and by mid '06, I saw the crash coming. Mr. Cramer refused to announce the bubble had burst until the 4th qtr. of '07...

His prediction for the housing bottom on June 30, 2009 should likewise be taken with a healthy dose of reality and due diligence...]]> Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:43:17 -0400
His real estate acumen however leaves much to be desired. Mr. Cramer missed the housing bubble collapse in late '06 early '07 by more than nine months. I am a Realtor and real estate investor and by mid '06, I saw the crash coming. Mr. Cramer refused to announce the bubble had burst until the 4th qtr. of '07...

His prediction for the housing bottom on June 30, 2009 should likewise be taken with a healthy dose of reality and due diligence...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142395-jumbo-mortgage-activity-increasing?source=feed#comment-541800 541800 You Stated:

T-bird - don't underestimate the crewman's skills...I'm goooooood. I stand by my 3-6 year prediction.

I do not hesitate to underestimate your skills and you are probably one of the "best". Even though your customer may want to buy from you, they may not be able to comply... What I do know is that demand for whatever you are selling will not return to levels seen from '03-06 for many, many years...I am writing from experience...No brag, just fact!!!]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:22:40 -0400 You Stated:

T-bird - don't underestimate the crewman's skills...I'm goooooood. I stand by my 3-6 year prediction.

I do not hesitate to underestimate your skills and you are probably one of the "best". Even though your customer may want to buy from you, they may not be able to comply... What I do know is that demand for whatever you are selling will not return to levels seen from '03-06 for many, many years...I am writing from experience...No brag, just fact!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142303-pennsylvania-reit-a-bargain-in-the-retail-sphere?source=feed#comment-541015 541015
One retail analyst suggested that there is currently on a national basis, 2 billion square feet of excess retail space which will disappear in the next five years. This prediction was made last fall. So far with cos. like Circuit City, Linens and Things, and not to mention the auto dealerships being dissolved this estimate is credible. I would refrain from any REIT unless the entity does 100% of their business with the Fed. The author appears to be in his early 30's and maybe he is textbook smart; but he needs to learn to be street smart...]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:42:47 -0400
One retail analyst suggested that there is currently on a national basis, 2 billion square feet of excess retail space which will disappear in the next five years. This prediction was made last fall. So far with cos. like Circuit City, Linens and Things, and not to mention the auto dealerships being dissolved this estimate is credible. I would refrain from any REIT unless the entity does 100% of their business with the Fed. The author appears to be in his early 30's and maybe he is textbook smart; but he needs to learn to be street smart...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142395-jumbo-mortgage-activity-increasing?source=feed#comment-540913 540913 I was a bonus and commission guy until '04 when I hung it up and semi-retired. You stated:

"Well (no news flash here), we bonus and commission guys are gone for a while leaving only the relatively few high net worth folks to bid on all these multi-million dollar homes for sale. We bonus/commission guys will be back and God-willing will be making big incomes and buying expensive homes again - my guess is that this will take at least 3-6 years. So for all those with multi-million dollars homes - the big question will be whether all of you can hold onto your homes and continue to make the big mortgage payment until such time as us bonus guys get our big incomes back. If all of you can, then the pricing will hold up well; if many can't hold on, then prices will retreat to pre-2003 levels. Having been in the market and knowing how vulnerable so many owners are in that market, my guess is the later."

I know you must feel the bonus boys will be back in 3-6 years. More likely, 10-15 years or longer. Demand for whatever you are hawking will not be there in sufficient quantity for many, many years to justify the incomes. I do agree with the balance of your reply though...]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:24:23 -0400 I was a bonus and commission guy until '04 when I hung it up and semi-retired. You stated:

"Well (no news flash here), we bonus and commission guys are gone for a while leaving only the relatively few high net worth folks to bid on all these multi-million dollar homes for sale. We bonus/commission guys will be back and God-willing will be making big incomes and buying expensive homes again - my guess is that this will take at least 3-6 years. So for all those with multi-million dollars homes - the big question will be whether all of you can hold onto your homes and continue to make the big mortgage payment until such time as us bonus guys get our big incomes back. If all of you can, then the pricing will hold up well; if many can't hold on, then prices will retreat to pre-2003 levels. Having been in the market and knowing how vulnerable so many owners are in that market, my guess is the later."

I know you must feel the bonus boys will be back in 3-6 years. More likely, 10-15 years or longer. Demand for whatever you are hawking will not be there in sufficient quantity for many, many years to justify the incomes. I do agree with the balance of your reply though...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142395-jumbo-mortgage-activity-increasing?source=feed#comment-540204 540204 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:01:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141232-high-end-home-market-still-has-further-to-fall?source=feed#comment-531445 531445
This as we all know now is no longer true and will become painfully evident to many as time passes...]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2009 08:24:06 -0400
This as we all know now is no longer true and will become painfully evident to many as time passes...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139546-housing-we-re-about-to-have-a-big-problem?source=feed#comment-517703 517703 Tue, 26 May 2009 08:47:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134995-jim-the-realtor-san-diego-new-homes-selling-briskly?source=feed#comment-488457 488457
Following the advice of 95% of the Realtors out there is like taking the hook, line and sinker...Do your due diligence and make your own decisions on your r.e. investment.

Forewarned is forearmed!]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 09:04:24 -0400
Following the advice of 95% of the Realtors out there is like taking the hook, line and sinker...Do your due diligence and make your own decisions on your r.e. investment.

Forewarned is forearmed!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133074-beazer-homes-option-traders-expecting-major-move-higher-in-another-homebuilder?source=feed#comment-477139 477139 Hope you have not placed a bet on BZH because if you have I have news for you. I do not know where you reside or if you are familiar with BZH's product and quality.

I am a Realtor and reside in a southeastern area where BZH has projects in some stage of construction. Let it be known that people who have purchased a BZH home are some of the biggest critics of the company. Many think they are known for substandard quality. I will in fact not show a BZH product because of the quality problems.

Only advice I will give you in purchasing calls is to straddle and cover your arse with a corresponding put investment. Caveat Emptor!!!]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 13:46:06 -0400 Hope you have not placed a bet on BZH because if you have I have news for you. I do not know where you reside or if you are familiar with BZH's product and quality.

I am a Realtor and reside in a southeastern area where BZH has projects in some stage of construction. Let it be known that people who have purchased a BZH home are some of the biggest critics of the company. Many think they are known for substandard quality. I will in fact not show a BZH product because of the quality problems.

Only advice I will give you in purchasing calls is to straddle and cover your arse with a corresponding put investment. Caveat Emptor!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131753-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-469488 469488
You don't quite get it do you? The banks are fabricating their numbers! The abandonment of mark-to-market allows these guys to use any of five different ways to value assets. Basically they start at the bottom line and work their way backwards. You'd have to be a fool to believe anything they say.

Wonder what the numbers would reveal if all the toxic debt and CDO's were allowed to be factored in? Treat financials as a short term trade only!!! Take your profits and hit the exits!]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:16:19 -0400
You don't quite get it do you? The banks are fabricating their numbers! The abandonment of mark-to-market allows these guys to use any of five different ways to value assets. Basically they start at the bottom line and work their way backwards. You'd have to be a fool to believe anything they say.

Wonder what the numbers would reveal if all the toxic debt and CDO's were allowed to be factored in? Treat financials as a short term trade only!!! Take your profits and hit the exits!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131078-housing-market-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-464810 464810
I am a NAR member and IMO, you have to take everything they publicize with a grain of salt!

Home sales will increase in '09; average price will be much lower...Leverage in residential real estate is "passe" and will remain so for many years.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 08:47:18 -0400
I am a NAR member and IMO, you have to take everything they publicize with a grain of salt!

Home sales will increase in '09; average price will be much lower...Leverage in residential real estate is "passe" and will remain so for many years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130439-more-investors-are-saying-bye-bye-to-buy-and-hold?source=feed#comment-459128 459128
I invest with Vanguard and use their platform as well as another discount broker. I have my $ with Vanguard for safety and protection more than anything else. Because Vanguard had so much $ pulled from their mutual funds last year (and also lost) they felt it was an economic necessity to offer this service. I for one look forward to using this service in the future...]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:59:53 -0400
I invest with Vanguard and use their platform as well as another discount broker. I have my $ with Vanguard for safety and protection more than anything else. Because Vanguard had so much $ pulled from their mutual funds last year (and also lost) they felt it was an economic necessity to offer this service. I for one look forward to using this service in the future...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127543-yesterday-s-rally-is-no-silver-bullet?source=feed#comment-437878 437878 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:02:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126558-two-more-reasons-i-think-housing-has-hit-bottom?source=feed#comment-430345 430345
However, I do not agree with your position and feel it will be 18 mos. or more b-4 any real bottom is reached. But we do need your opinions as we need someone to take the hit as prices continue to fall. In full disclosure, I am a Realtor, and investor.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 09:05:39 -0400
However, I do not agree with your position and feel it will be 18 mos. or more b-4 any real bottom is reached. But we do need your opinions as we need someone to take the hit as prices continue to fall. In full disclosure, I am a Realtor, and investor.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126062-housing-shows-signs-of-life?source=feed#comment-427357 427357 Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:51:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125304-hold-off-on-purchasing-that-summer-house?source=feed#comment-421606 421606
From '76 when I purchased my first home, prices have generally appreciated over time. Until manufacturing returns in earnest to the US home prices will continue to fall...]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 09:05:23 -0400
From '76 when I purchased my first home, prices have generally appreciated over time. Until manufacturing returns in earnest to the US home prices will continue to fall...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125304-hold-off-on-purchasing-that-summer-house?source=feed#comment-421605 421605
From '76 when I purchased my first home, prices have generally appreciated over time. Until manufacturing returns in earnest to the US home prices will continue to fall...]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 09:05:22 -0400
From '76 when I purchased my first home, prices have generally appreciated over time. Until manufacturing returns in earnest to the US home prices will continue to fall...]]>