t-bird

Beazer Homes: Option Traders Expecting Major Move Higher in Another Homebuilder

Joe,
Hope you have not placed a bet on BZH because if you have I have news for you. I do not know where you reside or if you are familiar with BZH's product and quality.

I am a Realtor and reside in a southeastern area where BZH has projects in some stage of construction. Let it be known that people who have purchased a BZH home are some of the biggest critics of the company. Many think they are known for substandard quality. I will in fact not show a BZH product because of the quality problems.

Only advice I will give you in purchasing calls is to straddle and cover your arse with a corresponding put investment. Caveat Emptor!!!

Analysts Fret Over Lennar's New Start-Up

Judy,
Would appreciate your thoughts as to the real estate market over the next 24 mos. Note that I did not mention only for '09 as the market will take many more mos. to stabilize than many expect. Remember, it took years to get to this point and the prospect of Uncle Sugar (Fed) making all correct will not be instantaneous.

I am involved in Real Estate and believe the second half of '09 will bring an increase in sales. Only problem is that home values will continue to decline for several more years...

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

Island Creek, I manage a seven figure family trust. Been investing for over 30 years and handle my own financial decisions. I have grown this trust over the last five years with an average compounded return of 18-20%. It is individuals like you with their Pollyanna attitude who are financial planners and are only interested in their fees and commissions.
The problem with the credit markets is not credit related. It is one of liquidity and solvency.
Remember what I said in my earlier post this time next year.

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

Island Creek; if you have been a financial advisor for 27 years I only thank the Holy Father that you do not manage my portfolio. I have been investing for over 30 years and manage my own.

I hope you remember your comment that this crisis will be over with this time next year.

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

The analyst quoted did well with his fund while the market was rising. Look how he is doing now. Negative numbers.

Unlike 90-91 we are in a liquidity and solvency crisis. Individuals in 90-91 were not loaded with debt that they cannot adequately service. I see much further decline in the homebuilders and will add to my positions with HOV, LEN and BZH. I predict BZH will be in Ch. 11 by Summer or early Fall.