Danny Newton's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/133296/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/166610-a-longer-list-of-employment-reducing-public-policies?source=feed#comment-717587 717587 Energy Projects with a low Rate of Return
Failure to approve additional refining and oil exploration
I would also nominate any government debt increase. The reason is that incurring the debt employs practically no one except maybe a grant writer. You do have to have employed people to pay it off but not to increase the debt. ]]> Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:05:33 -0400 Energy Projects with a low Rate of Return
Failure to approve additional refining and oil exploration
I would also nominate any government debt increase. The reason is that incurring the debt employs practically no one except maybe a grant writer. You do have to have employed people to pay it off but not to increase the debt. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160730-the-straw-man-in-the-incentives-debate?source=feed#comment-671663 671663 The ultimate faith is that the wealth of the rich will never exceed the needs of the non-rich. The Post Office can make money on a 44 cent stamp only if the delivery is local. There is no tipping point until the winners encourage the creation of added losers that need to go longer distances, like Alaska. As long as there continues to be cash in the register at the end of the day, there is no need to worry that the wealth created by the winners may have created an increased demand by the losers. There is no curiosity about a rational analysis or crafting a rational system of control defining or causing one to be aware of where the tipping point is as long as the answer continues to be raising the cost of the stamp. If there is a lack of incentive, it is a lack of incentive to study the effects of Socialism. ]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 07:36:33 -0400 The ultimate faith is that the wealth of the rich will never exceed the needs of the non-rich. The Post Office can make money on a 44 cent stamp only if the delivery is local. There is no tipping point until the winners encourage the creation of added losers that need to go longer distances, like Alaska. As long as there continues to be cash in the register at the end of the day, there is no need to worry that the wealth created by the winners may have created an increased demand by the losers. There is no curiosity about a rational analysis or crafting a rational system of control defining or causing one to be aware of where the tipping point is as long as the answer continues to be raising the cost of the stamp. If there is a lack of incentive, it is a lack of incentive to study the effects of Socialism. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159522-5-things-you-need-to-know-when-analyzing-corporate-debt?source=feed#comment-658975 658975
The stimulus package, as it pertains to transportation spending, targets underperforming counties and cities or areas with median income below 80% of the national average. This assures that money will be spent in areas with low probability that the new infrastructure will actually pay for itself. Instead of trying to get the greatest good for the greatest number, the spending tries to optimize the dollars spent regardless of the possibility of a return on investment.

Hopefully, the respent dollars by contractors and their employees will be handled with greater sophistication and care. ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:48:53 -0400
The stimulus package, as it pertains to transportation spending, targets underperforming counties and cities or areas with median income below 80% of the national average. This assures that money will be spent in areas with low probability that the new infrastructure will actually pay for itself. Instead of trying to get the greatest good for the greatest number, the spending tries to optimize the dollars spent regardless of the possibility of a return on investment.

Hopefully, the respent dollars by contractors and their employees will be handled with greater sophistication and care. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159188-newspapers-seeking-the-original-sin?source=feed#comment-656422 656422 Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:22:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158422-how-phevs-and-evs-will-sabotage-america-s-drive-for-energy-independence?source=feed#comment-648775 648775 Thu, 27 Aug 2009 10:18:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158061-emerging-economies-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly?source=feed#comment-646308 646308 Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:25:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155033-stimulus-calculations-laid-out?source=feed#comment-623746 623746 There was massive restructuring required in the road side service industries after the Interstates were built. The hotels aand motels along parallel roads died rather quickly and the cost of land at Interstate Exits was very high because Interstate Exits were not to be conferred on any community as a matter of their convenience. Many claim that the Interstate caused a decline in the central core of cities.
Rural electric service was hampered by the cost of line losses in remote locations. Companies had a duty not to serve customers and investors at a loss. The cost of rural electrification was eventually socialized by making low cost loans available. Money could be made in cities where distribution costs were lower because there were more meters per mile of line.
It would be an interesting exercise to explain why Rural Electrification worked while Barney Frank's Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac was a disaster. Both programs socialized costs. I think meters prevented over use of electricity while there was no meters in the home mortgage fiasco.
There is a push on to build new Interstate Routes, Like I-69, and there is an expectation that they will bring forth economic development as they did in the mid Fifties. I doubt that because the utility, if I may refer to roads as a utility, is at the saturation point. There is no incremental value to new routes or a lesser value. Additional value is still within adding lanes to the existing system however to maintain capacity. The average speed of Interstate Travel, will decline within the next fifteen years and those productivity gains will be lost. ]]> Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:17:48 -0400 There was massive restructuring required in the road side service industries after the Interstates were built. The hotels aand motels along parallel roads died rather quickly and the cost of land at Interstate Exits was very high because Interstate Exits were not to be conferred on any community as a matter of their convenience. Many claim that the Interstate caused a decline in the central core of cities.
Rural electric service was hampered by the cost of line losses in remote locations. Companies had a duty not to serve customers and investors at a loss. The cost of rural electrification was eventually socialized by making low cost loans available. Money could be made in cities where distribution costs were lower because there were more meters per mile of line.
It would be an interesting exercise to explain why Rural Electrification worked while Barney Frank's Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac was a disaster. Both programs socialized costs. I think meters prevented over use of electricity while there was no meters in the home mortgage fiasco.
There is a push on to build new Interstate Routes, Like I-69, and there is an expectation that they will bring forth economic development as they did in the mid Fifties. I doubt that because the utility, if I may refer to roads as a utility, is at the saturation point. There is no incremental value to new routes or a lesser value. Additional value is still within adding lanes to the existing system however to maintain capacity. The average speed of Interstate Travel, will decline within the next fifteen years and those productivity gains will be lost. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154615-the-truth-about-fossil-fuels-and-renewable-energy?source=feed#comment-620794 620794 Sat, 08 Aug 2009 00:47:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/152936-q2-gdp-better-than-i-thought?source=feed#comment-610983 610983 Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:04:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/152909-cash-for-clunkers-may-cost-up-to-45-354-per-vehicle?source=feed#comment-610936 610936
Better gas mileage will mean less money for state highway departments and less gas tax money means that this will put the pressure on for more gas taxes. The Federal Highway Trust Fund has been bailed out three times recently if you count stimulus money going to states. The current bailout is not settled yet because there is a difference in the House and Senate version. This money is required to pay states back for work they already did so there is a lot of pressure to at least give back the money that they borrowed from the Highway Trust Fund in this time of need.

In my state, a vehicle getting 12 miles to the gallon netted 1.533 cents per vehicle mile federal and 1.78 cents per mile state taxes. If the new car gets 20 miles per gallon, the state will get 1.07 cents per vehicle mile for the state and .92 cents per mile for the feds. It looks like the total difference between the clunker and the new car could be 1.32 cents per vehicle mile. The average two years ago was 2.5 cents per vehicle mile from all transportation taxes, state and federal. If all cars dropped overnight this much it would be a disaster. It takes about 20 years to totally turn over a fleet of non-truck vehicles. All this cash for clunkers thing is doing is accelerating the inevitable anyway, unless you foresee people trying to perpetuate their transportation forever, like in Cuba.

Cynical and paranoid people think that all of those orange barrels are just there to slow the traffic down so you can burn more gas to offset the losses to the Highway Trust Fund from CAFE standards.
]]> Sat, 01 Aug 2009 15:54:31 -0400
Better gas mileage will mean less money for state highway departments and less gas tax money means that this will put the pressure on for more gas taxes. The Federal Highway Trust Fund has been bailed out three times recently if you count stimulus money going to states. The current bailout is not settled yet because there is a difference in the House and Senate version. This money is required to pay states back for work they already did so there is a lot of pressure to at least give back the money that they borrowed from the Highway Trust Fund in this time of need.

In my state, a vehicle getting 12 miles to the gallon netted 1.533 cents per vehicle mile federal and 1.78 cents per mile state taxes. If the new car gets 20 miles per gallon, the state will get 1.07 cents per vehicle mile for the state and .92 cents per mile for the feds. It looks like the total difference between the clunker and the new car could be 1.32 cents per vehicle mile. The average two years ago was 2.5 cents per vehicle mile from all transportation taxes, state and federal. If all cars dropped overnight this much it would be a disaster. It takes about 20 years to totally turn over a fleet of non-truck vehicles. All this cash for clunkers thing is doing is accelerating the inevitable anyway, unless you foresee people trying to perpetuate their transportation forever, like in Cuba.

Cynical and paranoid people think that all of those orange barrels are just there to slow the traffic down so you can burn more gas to offset the losses to the Highway Trust Fund from CAFE standards.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151785-think-taxes-are-on-the-rise-consider-these-municipal-etfs-part-i?source=feed#comment-605900 605900
Too many governments have a problem with their retirement plans. If they can not grow the government with new programs, the empoyees are going to have a less luxurious retirement. Debt is being spent as if it were income and as if it was coming in as reliably as tax collections. Also, I have noticed that many large cities are using blended funding options for goofball economic development projects like sadiums and convention centers. The IRS has cracked down on the assumption that just because the local government says that it is a public purpose, that it is a legitimate purpose and has refused tax exempt status for some activities. The convention center might be built with bonds or maybe the utility relocations will be financed with muni bonds but there will be a big whack furnished from local taxes to cover loses elsewhere in operational expenses.
There is also a big risk in being lured into goofball transit projects that are chronically underfunded by the passenger. One city in North Carolina charges nothing to ride and still can not get 100% ridership. These projects just cannot pay for themselves and anybody issuing a bond on transit related projects should be absolutely sure that at least the capital portion is well covered with grants. The Obama Administration is going to be making it very easy to get your own little light ral or high steed starter kit but getting the cash to sustain and operate it into the future is an exercise left for the next election. ]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 19:23:04 -0400
Too many governments have a problem with their retirement plans. If they can not grow the government with new programs, the empoyees are going to have a less luxurious retirement. Debt is being spent as if it were income and as if it was coming in as reliably as tax collections. Also, I have noticed that many large cities are using blended funding options for goofball economic development projects like sadiums and convention centers. The IRS has cracked down on the assumption that just because the local government says that it is a public purpose, that it is a legitimate purpose and has refused tax exempt status for some activities. The convention center might be built with bonds or maybe the utility relocations will be financed with muni bonds but there will be a big whack furnished from local taxes to cover loses elsewhere in operational expenses.
There is also a big risk in being lured into goofball transit projects that are chronically underfunded by the passenger. One city in North Carolina charges nothing to ride and still can not get 100% ridership. These projects just cannot pay for themselves and anybody issuing a bond on transit related projects should be absolutely sure that at least the capital portion is well covered with grants. The Obama Administration is going to be making it very easy to get your own little light ral or high steed starter kit but getting the cash to sustain and operate it into the future is an exercise left for the next election. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151458-how-and-why-to-replace-the-a-p?source=feed#comment-604042 604042 AP) are leaving out the bad news and hyping the good news with alternative energy. They are equally willing to keep people in the dark about the short commings of High Speed Trains and financing of Transit.

Locally in Nashville, they also support any activity that has anything to do with getting more tax money. During the infamous tax revolts in Nashville and all over Tennessee, that almost no one has ever heard of, they chronically under reported the crowd sizes and the impact that people had on the legislature. A local TV reporter characterized the people who were against new taxes as the "Lexus Crowd" of rich people and the AP not only abused it's journalistic mandate, it used photographers that shot pictures of the occassional Lexus that was in queue around the legislative plaza to be included in the local paper. I don't think I have ever seen any AP product that suggests that there is not total scientific agreement on global Warming as a man-made phenomenon either. ]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:38:57 -0400 AP) are leaving out the bad news and hyping the good news with alternative energy. They are equally willing to keep people in the dark about the short commings of High Speed Trains and financing of Transit.

Locally in Nashville, they also support any activity that has anything to do with getting more tax money. During the infamous tax revolts in Nashville and all over Tennessee, that almost no one has ever heard of, they chronically under reported the crowd sizes and the impact that people had on the legislature. A local TV reporter characterized the people who were against new taxes as the "Lexus Crowd" of rich people and the AP not only abused it's journalistic mandate, it used photographers that shot pictures of the occassional Lexus that was in queue around the legislative plaza to be included in the local paper. I don't think I have ever seen any AP product that suggests that there is not total scientific agreement on global Warming as a man-made phenomenon either. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151276-what-really-led-the-rally-weighting-by-sectors?source=feed#comment-602507 602507 Sun, 26 Jul 2009 11:19:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149730-when-news-people-lose-common-sense?source=feed#comment-594939 594939 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:48:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148888-why-mandated-health-insurance-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-589608 589608 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:07:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148310-u-s-economy-the-government-has-made-things-worse?source=feed#comment-585676 585676
On the state and local level, stimulating the economy can be traced back to totally crazy subsidies (bribes) to railroads to make sure hat they went through your town instead of some other town. Many state constitutions were altered, like in Texas and Tennessee, to prevent abuses after local governments went bankrupt trying to throw subsidies at the problem of economic stimulation or economic development. The rest of history is basiclly pirating industries from one part of the country to another or even one part of a state to another one.

]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 10:26:48 -0400
On the state and local level, stimulating the economy can be traced back to totally crazy subsidies (bribes) to railroads to make sure hat they went through your town instead of some other town. Many state constitutions were altered, like in Texas and Tennessee, to prevent abuses after local governments went bankrupt trying to throw subsidies at the problem of economic stimulation or economic development. The rest of history is basiclly pirating industries from one part of the country to another or even one part of a state to another one.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148245-the-cap-and-trade-delusion-part-ii?source=feed#comment-585002 585002
Another burial project takes iron rich minerals to the middle of the ocean and causes a plankton bloom. The plankton that does not get eaten dies and falls to the bottom of the sea. Presto Ca-Ching a carbon allowance is created because the dead plankton are sequestered. Excess plankton have been falling to the bottom of the ocean as long as there have been plankton. The blooms have been caused by wind blown soil landing in the ocean and soil deposits at the mouths of rivers. It looks like to me that we will have one government agency causing plankton blooms and another government agency, USDA, preventing plankton blooms by controlling erosion. If spreading iron rich dirt in the ocean is a green job, what color is the job at the USDA?

For as long as there have been plankton, carbon dioxide levels heve been changing and they have been at least three times higher than they are right now at least three times in the past. There was not any cars and no coal fired power plants then either.

Burning coal seems to cause not one whit of concern that we might depleat the O2 supply for some reason. The heat coming off of engines and nuclear power plants does not seem to cause any concern either. Ozone is a big problem only when emitted by cars, when it is generated by windmills and power lines...no problem. There could well be more people allive today than have been alive for thousands of years, so where is the concern about our body heat warming up the planet?

According to Reuters, the Chinese are gearing up to sequester CO2 and sell the carbon credits to Europe. By making carbon dioxide a valuable comodity, the US will produce jobs in areas that have the least government regulation and lowest taxes which is China. I doubt that anyone will have the ability to slap the grin off their faces as they chuckel all the way to the bank with our treasury bills in them and our carbon allowances.

We are damaging the security if the US by pushing energy projects with low benefit to cost ratios. The Arabs don't sell us a lot of electricity. Going into debt to the Cinese is just trading one devil for the other and ending up with both. ]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 20:07:17 -0400
Another burial project takes iron rich minerals to the middle of the ocean and causes a plankton bloom. The plankton that does not get eaten dies and falls to the bottom of the sea. Presto Ca-Ching a carbon allowance is created because the dead plankton are sequestered. Excess plankton have been falling to the bottom of the ocean as long as there have been plankton. The blooms have been caused by wind blown soil landing in the ocean and soil deposits at the mouths of rivers. It looks like to me that we will have one government agency causing plankton blooms and another government agency, USDA, preventing plankton blooms by controlling erosion. If spreading iron rich dirt in the ocean is a green job, what color is the job at the USDA?

For as long as there have been plankton, carbon dioxide levels heve been changing and they have been at least three times higher than they are right now at least three times in the past. There was not any cars and no coal fired power plants then either.

Burning coal seems to cause not one whit of concern that we might depleat the O2 supply for some reason. The heat coming off of engines and nuclear power plants does not seem to cause any concern either. Ozone is a big problem only when emitted by cars, when it is generated by windmills and power lines...no problem. There could well be more people allive today than have been alive for thousands of years, so where is the concern about our body heat warming up the planet?

According to Reuters, the Chinese are gearing up to sequester CO2 and sell the carbon credits to Europe. By making carbon dioxide a valuable comodity, the US will produce jobs in areas that have the least government regulation and lowest taxes which is China. I doubt that anyone will have the ability to slap the grin off their faces as they chuckel all the way to the bank with our treasury bills in them and our carbon allowances.

We are damaging the security if the US by pushing energy projects with low benefit to cost ratios. The Arabs don't sell us a lot of electricity. Going into debt to the Cinese is just trading one devil for the other and ending up with both. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148175-tarp-mission-creep-watch-sba-edition?source=feed#comment-583357 583357 Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:26:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147731-hydro-power-the-underloved-energy-source?source=feed#comment-581741 581741 www.nytimes.com/gwire/...

Corps of Engineers Stops Project Because of Low Benefit to Cost Ratio.

Since when did the ecofraks pay any attention to economic efficiency? I don't see them applying the same standard to high speed trains, wind and solar projects. ]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 02:29:53 -0400 www.nytimes.com/gwire/...

Corps of Engineers Stops Project Because of Low Benefit to Cost Ratio.

Since when did the ecofraks pay any attention to economic efficiency? I don't see them applying the same standard to high speed trains, wind and solar projects. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147812-will-pickens-scrapped-project-slow-wind-energy-momentum?source=feed#comment-581733 581733 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 02:14:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147355-watching-the-rails-for-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-578313 578313 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 01:04:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147251-getting-the-point-of-high-speed-trains?source=feed#comment-578290 578290
High speed trains are direct competitors to the airlines. A proposal to build a 45 Billion dollar high speed train between Los Angeles and San Francisco would cut into the average availability of 3952 airline seats per day. Grayhound offers about 600 seats per day to make the same trip at about 9 hours or about 42 miles per hour. If you borrowed $45 Billion and paid it back over 40 years at 5%, the train would have to take in $2.6 million per day plus operational costs. Air routes between the two cities have been as low as $71 lately. Even if the public was willing to pay $100 for a one way ticket, It would mean that the train would have to take 71,800 passengers a day on a trip that would take one hour and 44 minutes. On a single track, you could manage 13 trips with each train carrying an average of 5,523 people. It sounds to me like you need multiple parallel tracks to carry this load. A north bound track and a south bound track would cut the load down to 2762 per train. The total number of US passenger miles in 2006 for light and heavy rail was 16.5 Billion passenger miles. If this thing every worked in a way that it paid for itself, it would generate over 10 Billion passenger miles a year. AMTRACK is doing only about 5 Billion passenger miles per year. My inner Randall O'toole is telling me that this thing, like most others, can not pay for itself. Historically people are willing to spend about 11% of their disposable income on transportation no matter who is in charge and I don't think that is going to change.
Socializing the cost for this project and many other high speed train projects only makes the people who lose their jobs have to pay for the state to take away their jobs. The government owes the losers a good explaination exactly why they have to pay for something that they can not or would not use. I think that there is a moral issue in subnsidizing anything with public funds and the fact that everybody is doing it does not justify doing anything. During the Clinton Administration, there were proposals to build high speed truck only interstates that would be allowing trucks to go 85 miles per hour from Michigan to the Mexican Border. This concept died upon the instant that it looked like it could kill the train business. Having the government pick the winners and the losers is a formula for corruption. ]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 00:20:22 -0400
High speed trains are direct competitors to the airlines. A proposal to build a 45 Billion dollar high speed train between Los Angeles and San Francisco would cut into the average availability of 3952 airline seats per day. Grayhound offers about 600 seats per day to make the same trip at about 9 hours or about 42 miles per hour. If you borrowed $45 Billion and paid it back over 40 years at 5%, the train would have to take in $2.6 million per day plus operational costs. Air routes between the two cities have been as low as $71 lately. Even if the public was willing to pay $100 for a one way ticket, It would mean that the train would have to take 71,800 passengers a day on a trip that would take one hour and 44 minutes. On a single track, you could manage 13 trips with each train carrying an average of 5,523 people. It sounds to me like you need multiple parallel tracks to carry this load. A north bound track and a south bound track would cut the load down to 2762 per train. The total number of US passenger miles in 2006 for light and heavy rail was 16.5 Billion passenger miles. If this thing every worked in a way that it paid for itself, it would generate over 10 Billion passenger miles a year. AMTRACK is doing only about 5 Billion passenger miles per year. My inner Randall O'toole is telling me that this thing, like most others, can not pay for itself. Historically people are willing to spend about 11% of their disposable income on transportation no matter who is in charge and I don't think that is going to change.
Socializing the cost for this project and many other high speed train projects only makes the people who lose their jobs have to pay for the state to take away their jobs. The government owes the losers a good explaination exactly why they have to pay for something that they can not or would not use. I think that there is a moral issue in subnsidizing anything with public funds and the fact that everybody is doing it does not justify doing anything. During the Clinton Administration, there were proposals to build high speed truck only interstates that would be allowing trucks to go 85 miles per hour from Michigan to the Mexican Border. This concept died upon the instant that it looked like it could kill the train business. Having the government pick the winners and the losers is a formula for corruption. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146890-no-surprise-stimulus-isn-t-working?source=feed#comment-575451 575451 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:52:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146956-are-airlines-going-bankrupt-again?source=feed#comment-575066 575066
To compete with an Interstate, a MAGLEV would have to carry about 100,000 passengers per day per mile. Some kind of transit or secondary conveyance would be required at the beginning of and the end of the MAGLEV trip. The Japanese high speed train system is supported with an impressive train,bus and taxi system over land that is about 6 times more densly populated than anything in the US. All of these disadvantages will deter no one who is not interested in optimizing throughput or passengers past a fixed point. If the efficiency of leaving New Orleans via automobile before Katrina makes no impact on anyone versus the failure of bus and train to evacuate any substantial number of people I doubt that any appeal to rationality is going to be viable. I suspect that high speed trains will be hidden in substantial shelters in the event of hurricanes much as airplnes are ferried out of harm's way in bad weather. ]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:39:16 -0400
To compete with an Interstate, a MAGLEV would have to carry about 100,000 passengers per day per mile. Some kind of transit or secondary conveyance would be required at the beginning of and the end of the MAGLEV trip. The Japanese high speed train system is supported with an impressive train,bus and taxi system over land that is about 6 times more densly populated than anything in the US. All of these disadvantages will deter no one who is not interested in optimizing throughput or passengers past a fixed point. If the efficiency of leaving New Orleans via automobile before Katrina makes no impact on anyone versus the failure of bus and train to evacuate any substantial number of people I doubt that any appeal to rationality is going to be viable. I suspect that high speed trains will be hidden in substantial shelters in the event of hurricanes much as airplnes are ferried out of harm's way in bad weather. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146956-are-airlines-going-bankrupt-again?source=feed#comment-574963 574963 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:19:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146703-solar-stocks-j-p-morgan-shuffles-ratings?source=feed#comment-573714 573714
The whole idea that utilities will use a higher fraction of renewables by increasing renewables is predicated on the theory that more renewable sources are easily built. To meet Cap and Trade goals at least $688 Billion in solar must be built and the energy produced would only take care of the population increase for about 8 years if you ignore the 30% loss in converting from DC to AC and the line losses which could be as high as two kilowatts lost for every three produced. Energy generation is not immune to Cap and Trade Legislation. All forms of generation will be more expensive but turning off the offending power will not cost the utility a lot of money. The effect of making everything more expensive seems no different than suffeing a massive inflationary surge. It was high inflation costs that were implemented in cost overruns in the atomic power programs in the 70's.

Turning off the coal spigot will mean rotating blackouts which will be cheaper for the utility companies but not for, hospitals, ISP's credit card companies and air traffic control facilities. They have their own back up systems which are based in oil. It won't be long before the power company charges higher fees for being onn 24 hours a day. All of the general rules about doing the wash and the dishes at night might have to be revised.

The first blackout should be in Washington, ]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:18:50 -0400
The whole idea that utilities will use a higher fraction of renewables by increasing renewables is predicated on the theory that more renewable sources are easily built. To meet Cap and Trade goals at least $688 Billion in solar must be built and the energy produced would only take care of the population increase for about 8 years if you ignore the 30% loss in converting from DC to AC and the line losses which could be as high as two kilowatts lost for every three produced. Energy generation is not immune to Cap and Trade Legislation. All forms of generation will be more expensive but turning off the offending power will not cost the utility a lot of money. The effect of making everything more expensive seems no different than suffeing a massive inflationary surge. It was high inflation costs that were implemented in cost overruns in the atomic power programs in the 70's.

Turning off the coal spigot will mean rotating blackouts which will be cheaper for the utility companies but not for, hospitals, ISP's credit card companies and air traffic control facilities. They have their own back up systems which are based in oil. It won't be long before the power company charges higher fees for being onn 24 hours a day. All of the general rules about doing the wash and the dishes at night might have to be revised.

The first blackout should be in Washington, ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146709-beantown-bust-boston-expect-home-prices-to-decline-further?source=feed#comment-573523 573523 Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:26:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146778-it-s-time-to-rethink-stimulus?source=feed#comment-573520 573520
Reorganizing helath care is also not likely to do anything positive. If it works, people will just be forced to make different choices about how they spend their money. Instead of non-health purchases, there will be health purchases. The economy will restructure itself to confirm to the new reality but there won't be any more resources to use on health care if there is not an increase in productivity. I don't mean Chinese or Mexican productivity either.

There was a lot of pain and job loss after the construction of the Interstate. Roadside service industries along the old routes died or moved. The ability to travel farther in a day caused a decline in roadside service jobs and probably had a bad impact on the central core of most cities. The ability to travel farther however also created larger areas around attractions that now contained more potential visitors.

The restructuring of our transportation intake is nothing compared to the restructuring of our health care consumption. The dollar amount is much larger and there will be more pain. Transportation usually consummes about 11 percent of disposable income. Health Care will take a much larger bite. The Construction of the Interstate was much more expensive than anticipated and took longe than anticipated but the added productivity overcame the drag on the economy that restructuring to the new reality caused. I see nothing in the future about any productivity increase coming from health care improvements. Most of the health care costs are in the final days and there will be a small fraction of people who can return to the workforce to make the investment worthwhile unless you count human life at a very high amount. ]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:21:25 -0400
Reorganizing helath care is also not likely to do anything positive. If it works, people will just be forced to make different choices about how they spend their money. Instead of non-health purchases, there will be health purchases. The economy will restructure itself to confirm to the new reality but there won't be any more resources to use on health care if there is not an increase in productivity. I don't mean Chinese or Mexican productivity either.

There was a lot of pain and job loss after the construction of the Interstate. Roadside service industries along the old routes died or moved. The ability to travel farther in a day caused a decline in roadside service jobs and probably had a bad impact on the central core of most cities. The ability to travel farther however also created larger areas around attractions that now contained more potential visitors.

The restructuring of our transportation intake is nothing compared to the restructuring of our health care consumption. The dollar amount is much larger and there will be more pain. Transportation usually consummes about 11 percent of disposable income. Health Care will take a much larger bite. The Construction of the Interstate was much more expensive than anticipated and took longe than anticipated but the added productivity overcame the drag on the economy that restructuring to the new reality caused. I see nothing in the future about any productivity increase coming from health care improvements. Most of the health care costs are in the final days and there will be a small fraction of people who can return to the workforce to make the investment worthwhile unless you count human life at a very high amount. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146562-how-come-the-economic-stimulus-isn-t-working?source=feed#comment-572873 572873 Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:06:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146689-is-inflation-a-fact-or-just-an-opinion-part-ii?source=feed#comment-572845 572845
Lets say the allowances were Confederate Money and suddenly they became worth something. The money supply should suddenly spike after the auctions. I think this would be a good time to get into the carbon sequestration business. Selling allowances would be a great business if you were set up in Mexico or China where buying the allowances was not required. A utility with a fresh pile of free allowances might consider going out of business just to liquidate the allowances after they have an established value and turn them into real money. Maybe Obama will make executives take their bonuses as Cap and Trade Allowances? ]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:47:24 -0400
Lets say the allowances were Confederate Money and suddenly they became worth something. The money supply should suddenly spike after the auctions. I think this would be a good time to get into the carbon sequestration business. Selling allowances would be a great business if you were set up in Mexico or China where buying the allowances was not required. A utility with a fresh pile of free allowances might consider going out of business just to liquidate the allowances after they have an established value and turn them into real money. Maybe Obama will make executives take their bonuses as Cap and Trade Allowances? ]]>