Danny Newton

Are Airlines Going Bankrupt Again?

Europe uses its rail for passengers mostly and the US uses rail mostly for freight. Freight does not complain and does not mind going an average of 15 MPH as long as the delay is coordinated. Both Europeans and Asians prefer to use their own cars in spite of taxes that discourage it. MAGLEV is too expensive. Making MAGLEV work technically is a lot easier than making it work financially. MAGLEV can travel on steep grades that steel on steel traction could never negotiate. You can build several miles of four-lane Interstate for the same cost as a single lane of MAGLEV The Interstate can carry many more passengers per day and even accomodate trucks. The Interstate is also open 24/7 every day of the week. Passenger Trains died long ago but we still have them on life support by socializing the costs. All it takes is one or two people in the right place to be honest about the viability of trains and they will be moved to Disneyworld and museums. Trains moving freight still have substantial value and are being made to carry heavier loads on better track. Further, they should be allowed to travel without crews, as robots controlled from a central point.

To compete with an Interstate, a MAGLEV would have to carry about 100,000 passengers per day per mile. Some kind of transit or secondary conveyance would be required at the beginning of and the end of the MAGLEV trip. The Japanese high speed train system is supported with an impressive train,bus and taxi system over land that is about 6 times more densly populated than anything in the US. All of these disadvantages will deter no one who is not interested in optimizing throughput or passengers past a fixed point. If the efficiency of leaving New Orleans via automobile before Katrina makes no impact on anyone versus the failure of bus and train to evacuate any substantial number of people I doubt that any appeal to rationality is going to be viable. I suspect that high speed trains will be hidden in substantial shelters in the event of hurricanes much as airplnes are ferried out of harm's way in bad weather.

Are Airlines Going Bankrupt Again?

The worst thing that can happen to the airlines, next to another 911 attack and increasing oil prices is the actual construction of high speed rail. High speed rail and air travel are natural and logical competitors. The airplane has an advantage over the train in that it can fly over obstacles and only needs pavement at the beginning and the end of the trip. The train on the otherhand needs a guideway for the entire distance. If the government supports trains against planes, some airlines will die.