Pilot Guy

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    • Sat Jun 28th 08:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High-Yield Canadian Royalty Trusts: What's the Catch?
      The argument that I was making did not reflect on all trusts. The article suggested that some HIGH YIELDING trusts were like magic – ignoring the perfect market theory.
      XTR pays out quarterly – other ETF’s that cherry pick the universe of available stocks are subject to the same underperformance that has been documented in study after study.
      I kinda like Buffet’s advice – buy a universal ETF.
      EIT.UN is a fine choice that makes it look attractive with the run-up in crude prices. If that segment declines.. it will crater. It is not a substitute for a broadly representative basket of Trusts like ATR.
      ERF is a fine trust – it only yields 5.04% and is a 4 star stock
      AND.UN yields 7.6% and is a 4 start stock. These are not the trusts that I or the article was discussing
      I am merely suggesting that investors do not chase outlandish Trust yields greater that 12% and not expect nasty surprises such as stock price decline and payout diminishment or suspension. Risk = Return.. you may make out like a bandit.. or lose everything.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 27th 22:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High-Yield Canadian Royalty Trusts: What's the Catch?
      OK.. take Newport.. one year stock performance - down 45% - two Star Rating at Globefund - Two year stock price down over 60%.
      2007: Loss: $26 million on $569 million in Sales.
      The year before loss: $23 million on $372 million sales.
      Guarantee on future Dividend payouts - Nada - they can be cut at any time and several Trusts have done so this year.
      Take a flyer - hope for a takeover - pray it happens before 2011.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 27th 19:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High-Yield Canadian Royalty Trusts: What's the Catch?
      There is no free lunch here. The trusts are valued efficiently taking into account their yield. If you were an investor in the vast majority of these high yielding trusts last year at this time you would be down in value significantly.. even after dividend yield.
      Very few high-yielding trusts are ever rated as 4 or 5 star performers.
      I perfer to buy the index fund of Candian Trusts (XTR - up quite smartly in the past 12 months) - if you cherry pick - good luck with that
      View article »
    • Fri May 23rd 20:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Broadwind Energy: Cramer, Someone Had to Say Something
      Before everyone goes haywire with ridiculous valuations, you need to pull a Buffet.. what do these companies fundamentally offer the market. Are they particularly clever manufacturers... system integrators... do they have patents.. a powerful brand name.
      The answer is mostly.. none of the above. I have toured some "Wind" factories. It is basic metal fab, purchased turbines and structural steel. Nothing that would suggest a sustainable competitive advantage and nothing that could not be done better by long-established manufacturing operations.
      I am waiting for a company with a sustainable dominating strategy to sell.. ridiculous valuations will get "popped" very quickly once wind power becomes a profitable market to enter.
      In the mean time.. they strike me as more "internet" bubble stories with ridiculous valuations.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 18:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Overbought and Oversold ETFs
      So what?? Are you suggesting a regression to the mean in the future??
      Sorry - that works in biology but not markets.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 16th 22:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead?
      You know that every time someone pulls that old “Arrow” chestnut out of the fire – I can only thank goodness that Canada never finished the development of that beautiful and over-priced jet with no market potential.

      This was a bad decision by Prentice – a populist one no doubt – but a poorly thought out decision.
      It merely sends the message to all clever entrepreneurs that Canada is a poor place to develop and nurture businesses. As an owner, you should have the right to sell your business in the marketplace without the government (owning no shares) deciding
      that it is not in the “national” interest for you to maximize shareholder value.

      The immediate result is much cheering and singing of "Oh Canada" like that shown by the author. The long term effect is the loss of potential new enterprises by clever risk-takers who see a more nurturing environment elsewhere.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 24th 20:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      The key question that should be asked is whether you want to invest in an industry that is entirely dependent on Government subsidies for their very existence.
      Maybe solar makes sense some day - right now it is not even close.
      The goverment giveth and the government taketh away!
      Any change in policy and these stocks will crater.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 21st 21:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation
      You gotta love it when an analyst cherry picks one call at one point in time. So many have been calling for a retrenchment in Gold for over a year. If you say the same thing over an extended period of time - you are bound to be right eventually. That does not mitigate the fact that you were wrong all of the other times.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 12th 20:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Get Long SP500 When VIX Hits 30?
      Are we so desperate that we are chasing random correlations between indices??
      And worse than randomly pairing indices.. only looking back for six months.
      Yikes.. lol
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 20:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Titan Machinery: Miles to Sow Before it Reaps
      I wish them well - but there is no reason why this model will be any more successful than the defunct Auto Superstores. What value do they add vs. regionally owned dealers?
      I have run an ag manufacturing business for 20 years supplying large and small dealers - guess who is more successful in the inevitable downturns in the ag economy?
      Many Ag enterprises are being floated by the current rising tide - I am grateful for that - can anyone one say tulip bulbs?
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 23rd 20:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling My Hedges on Today's Hard Fall
      Yikes! Bring on the aliens and the second coming. It is a slow-down possibly a prelude to a recession not a Global Depression - whatever that is. Oil reserves and consumption have not changed by an order of magnitide in six months. Crops are still being harvested. Famine still reigns in Africa due to a corrupt leadership. I hope you look back in May and smile at your post.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 23rd 11:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blood on the Street Means Opportunity
      So buying now may be a good idea.. unless it is not.
      You must have been a High School Football coach in a earlier life.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 17th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Would Buffett Do? 3 Safe Financial Picks
      Good calls! Only two of three are down over 12% YTD!
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 26th 10:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Inevitable Derivative Meltdown
      What a moron - no basis.. ranting and raving.. sounds like a gold bug to me. Either that or junior got a new computer from Santa.
      View article »
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