Dean M

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Sorry ten years is too short of a snapshot to make that extrapolation. I'm not disputing your thesis, just your lack of evidence. And I don't think it's incumbent on me to come up with an alternate analysis.

On Nov 04 06:05 PM Michael David White wrote:

> I did draw in the trend line based upon the first ten years having
> greater validity than the second ten years. It's interesting that
> you say my hypothesis for values has no value, but you offer nothing
> of value to support your opinion on values. Here's my opinion: Based
> upon price trends in the past three years, in which we have had a
> catastrophic loss in values, the bubble trend is a bubble and the
> non-bubble trend is a non-bubble. I assumed that the long-trend is
> the non-bubble trend. I hope this explanation has been of value to
> you. I am working on a longer-trend graph. Thanks for your note.
> mdw

Cramer Does It Again with CIT Call

The SEC should regulate him? Will they use the anti buffoonery clause?

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

It's very unclear how you arrived at that trend line. It almost looks like you fit the line to the first 10 years and assumed it should apply to the next ten years. If that was the basis of how you drew the trend line then I see no value in this analysis. I have seen really long term graphs, like 50-100 years - normalized to inflation and/or median income, I would welcome a refresh on that type of trend to see where we fall in.

On Bubbles and the Market Recovery

Interesting how all these heavyweights are coordinating their efforts to jawbone the market down all of a sudden. Maybe they are trying to cover up their own meager performance by year end.

Crashachusetts Sept. 2009 Existing Home Sales and Prices: Don't Be Fooled by Headline Numbers

What kind of analysis is that? Subtracting 5% from the actual figure on a graph is totally meaningless, any idiot could figure out that if you subtract 5% it will look that much worse.

Bill Gross: Six Month Rally Is 'At Its Pinnacle'

This commentary by Gross is consistent with what his outlook has been for quite a while. But calling a top on the stock market is something new for him and you have to wonder about his motives when someone of his stature does that.

Fantasy Housing Numbers a Prelude to the Next U.S. Crash

Of course I have biases but I'm not trying to sell a particular point of view to anyone with regards to the economy. Just trying to navigate the rough waters for myself. I guess 'ridiculous' was a little too strong, 'questionable' would have been a better choice of words.


On Oct 28 05:43 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Let me get this straight, Dean.
>
> I look "ridiculous" when I cite an anecdote from my own, personal
> experience. However, it's NOT "ridiculous" when major news organizations
> report that heresay that ANONYMOUS "buyers" are (supposedly) having
> difficulty "finding" and distressed properties to purchase.
>
> It's a good thing that YOU have have no biases, Dean.

Fantasy Housing Numbers a Prelude to the Next U.S. Crash

So the government should subsidize 25% of the purchase price of a new house?


On Oct 28 11:53 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> Caveat:
> The only thing they have done for homeowners is a $8000 credit. It
> is very restrictive. You only get it if you are a new homeowner,
> etc, etc. It does not help existing homeowners (unless they sell).
>
>
> $8000 for a $160,000 house is 5% of the purchase price
> $4500 for a $18,000 car is 25% of the purchase price.
>
> According to the government, cars are more important than houses.
>
>
> When the banks foreclose on the houses, the people can sleep in their
> shiny brand new cars.

Fantasy Housing Numbers a Prelude to the Next U.S. Crash

Jeff presents some worthwhile data but him calling the NAR biased is definitely the pot calling the kettle black. He is a gold salesman so he is heavily biased to present the armegeddon scenario. He makes himself look quite a bit ridiculous when he points to email spam as a measure of bank owned housing inventory.

iShares Files for New Type of Muni Bond ETF

Game changer

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Thank you Senator McCarthy


On Oct 19 10:13 AM diogeron wrote:

> Take this anti-"socialist" pledge....
>
> Date:_________________...
>
> I, ________________________, do solemnly swear to uphold the principles
> of a socialism-free society and heretofore pledge my word that I
> shall strictly adhere to the following:
>
> I pledge to eliminate all government intervention in my life. I
> will abstain from the use of and participation in any socialist goods
> and services including but not limited to the following:
>
> * Social Security
> * Medicare/Medicaid
> * State Children’s Health Insurance Programs (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
>
> * Police, Fire, and Emergency Services
> * US Postal Service
> * Roads and Highways
> * Air Travel (regulated by the FAA)
> * The US Railway System
> * Public Subways and Metro Systems
> * Public Bus and Light Rail Systems
> * Rest Areas on Highways & Sidewalks
> * All Government-Funded Local/State Projects (e.g., see Senator Grassley's
> Iowa 2009 -- grassley.senate.gov/is...
> federal appropriations of taxpayer money)
> * Public Water and Sewer Services (including but not limited to public
> toilets, showers, dishwashers, kitchen sinks, and outdoor hoses)
>
> * Public and State Universities and Colleges
> * Public Primary and Secondary Schools & Sesame Street
> * Publicly Funded Anti-Drug Use Education for Children
> * Public Libraries & Museums
> * Public Parks and Beaches
> * State and National Parks
> * Public Zoos
> * Unemployment Insurance
> * Municipal Garbage and Recycling Services
> * Treatment at Any Hospital or Clinic Has Received Funding from Local,
> State or Federal Government
> * Medical Services and Medications That Were Created or Derived from
> Any Government Grant or Research Funding
> * Byproducts of Government Investment Such as Velcro (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
>
> * Use of the Internet, email, and networked computers, as the DOD's
> ARPANET was the basis for computer networking
> * Foodstuffs, Meats, Produce and Crops That Were Grown with, Fed
> with, Raised with or Contain Crops Grown with Government Farm Subsidies
>
> * Clothing Made from Crops (e.g. cotton) That Were Grown with or
> Contain Inputs from Government Subsidies
> If a veteran of the government-run US military, I will forego my
> VA benefits and insist on paying for my own medical care.
>
> I will not tour socialist government buildings like the Capitol in
> Washington, D.C.
>
> I pledge never to take myself, my family, or my children on a tour
> of the following types of socialist locations, including but not
> limited to:
>
> * Smithsonian Museums such as the Air and Space Museum or Museum
> of American History
> * The Washington, Lincoln, and Jefferson Monuments
> * The government-operated Statue of Liberty
> * The Grand Canyon
> * The World War II and Vietnam Veterans Memorials
> * The government-run Arlington National Cemetery
> * All other public-funded socialist sites, whether it be in my state
> or in Washington, DC
>
> I will urge my Member of Congress and Senators to forego their government
> salary and government-provided healthcare.
>
> I will oppose and condemn the government-funded military of the United
> States of America.
>
> I will boycott the products of socialist defense contractors such
> as GE, Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics,
> Raytheon, Humana, FedEx, General Motors, Honeywell, and hundreds
> of others that are paid by our socialist government to produce goods
> for our socialist army.
>
> I will protest socialist national security departments such as the
> Pentagon, FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security, TSA, Department
> of Justice and their socialist employees.
>
> Upon reaching eligible retirement age, I will tear up my socialist
> Social Security checks.
>
> Upon reaching age 65, I will forego Medicare and pay for my own private
> health insurance until I die.
>
> SWORN AND SIGNED THIS DAY OF ________ IN THE YEAR _____.
>
> _______________________ _______________________ _____________________
>
>
> Signed Printed Name Town and State
>

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

If unemployment is really 2x the stated level then how come I don't know anyone out of a job among friends, family, neighbors etc. Maybe I'm an anomaly but that claim seems a load of bs. Even one of my close, terminally underemployed friends just got a really good job.

World Recovery Is in the Hands of OPEC

I wish oil would go to $1000 so we would stop using it, we have plenty of energy sources right here, the domestic energy producers just don't own politicians like big oil. Lets see Iran and Venezuela try to compete in the world economy on innovation instead of the dumb luck of sitting on massive oil reserves, that would be fun.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

I bought a new Mac to learn iPhone programming on and I've had several in the past for work. I'm not particularly impressed, it has plenty of flakiness to rival Windows PCs. I saw in the Best Buy insert today that a Macbook Pro is $2400 vs 1200 for a comparably configured PC. The 100% price premium is inexplicable to me.

Verizon Launches Direct Ad Attack Against the iPhone

Apple has ok products but 80% of their success is built on bogus hype. Besides Verizon is a pitbull compared to ATT when it comes to network quality.


On Oct 19 09:13 AM Tom B wrote:

> Difference: Apple IS a pitbull; Verizon is an aggressive dog with
> rabies who doesn't know how hurting he really is.