Alot of smart people have taken both sides of the argument. Bottom line, they're all guessing and if anyone gets it right they were just lucky. Also it seems like your remark about how you assume free and open markets is like making excuses in advance, of course everyone knows we don't.
"Caveat: I’m not a prophet. The following conclusions are just based on the evidence I present below that this is not the time for new long positions. I’m still innocently (naively?) assuming we have a free, open and transparent market operating."
Commodities for Income Investors [View article]
"Caveat: I’m not a prophet. The following conclusions are just based on the evidence I present below that this is not the time for new long positions. I’m still innocently (naively?) assuming we have a free, open and transparent market operating."