Dean M

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Sorry ten years is too short of a snapshot to make that extrapolation. I'm not disputing your thesis, just your lack of evidence. And I don't think it's incumbent on me to come up with an alternate analysis.

On Nov 04 06:05 PM Michael David White wrote:

> I did draw in the trend line based upon the first ten years having
> greater validity than the second ten years. It's interesting that
> you say my hypothesis for values has no value, but you offer nothing
> of value to support your opinion on values. Here's my opinion: Based
> upon price trends in the past three years, in which we have had a
> catastrophic loss in values, the bubble trend is a bubble and the
> non-bubble trend is a non-bubble. I assumed that the long-trend is
> the non-bubble trend. I hope this explanation has been of value to
> you. I am working on a longer-trend graph. Thanks for your note.
> mdw

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

It's very unclear how you arrived at that trend line. It almost looks like you fit the line to the first 10 years and assumed it should apply to the next ten years. If that was the basis of how you drew the trend line then I see no value in this analysis. I have seen really long term graphs, like 50-100 years - normalized to inflation and/or median income, I would welcome a refresh on that type of trend to see where we fall in.

Crashachusetts Sept. 2009 Existing Home Sales and Prices: Don't Be Fooled by Headline Numbers

What kind of analysis is that? Subtracting 5% from the actual figure on a graph is totally meaningless, any idiot could figure out that if you subtract 5% it will look that much worse.

If Housing Were Priced in Gold

I don't find this useful at all. Affordability as a function of income ratio or equivalent rents is the best way to look at historical house price trends.