David Schrader

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    • Fri Feb 1st 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alpha's Not Earned From Riding the Tides
      Disclosure update: I have sold out of the TLT puts and picked up C puts.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 14:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seeking Alpha in 2008 With ProShares' UltraShort S&P500 ETF
      It got sent while I was typing... haha all apologies.

      S&P (-7.65%) these figures according to money.cnn.com 2:15pm, 01/29


      That would make you right so far but the Russell has come down from a high of 856 to 702 (-21.4% from its high). The S&P, over the same period, has gone from a high of 1576 to 1356 (-14% from its high). Therefore the R2000 has already been punished and as you stated it's been priced in.

      However the impact on a global scale is yet unknown which means Mr Market has been unable to fully price in the negative impact of a US slowdown on internationally-linked companies such as those you mention in the S&P. That's why the R2000 will rebound stronger and more rapidly than the S&P - while the players are still figuring out the S&P impact they'll already know the R2000 impact.
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    • Tue Jan 29th 14:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seeking Alpha in 2008 With ProShares' UltraShort S&P500 ETF
      Jo Shmo

      Thanks for the complement. As you said, keep in mind the market is priced for the future not the present. You're right - on a logical basis small caps should be hurt more from a recession/slow down. However the market is not a logical man, it's an emotional child. Based on the performance of the S&P for the month of January relative to the

      YTD Russell ( - 8.28% )
      YTD S&P
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    • Tue Jan 29th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Won't Stay Down for Long
      In my humble opinion, solar is not "clearly a winning technology" by any stretch of the imagination. It's a relatively expensive technology at the moment and there doesn't seem to be any tech advances proving otherwise that I've read about. I did hear of a firm looking to withdraw solar rays from space and beam them down to their plant - which apparently allows for a much stronger power generation but even that is not a guarantee. The expense of doing so and inconsistency of oil prices will cause solar to fade off for longer than a little while. The main issue here is that people adjust to pain too well and they forget too quickly (think frog in boiling water example). Oil has spiked to "record levels" before and these alternative energies were jumped into just as they are now. Well, the cycle continues. I expect eventually we'll need to rely on solar power but I doubt it will be any time in the next ten years, and my money is not getting locked up in something with minimal potential ROI for a decade or more.
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    • Fri Jan 25th 13:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who Is Jerome Kerviel?
      Could it be implied then that the "bottom" people are discussing that was apparently put in place that day was actually a sham? Which would then mean we have yet to see the actual sell-off. I'm still in the bearish camp.

      Anyone else... Thoughts? Ideas? Great places to eat in NYC?
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    • Fri Jan 25th 13:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling Over? I'm Just Not Buying It.
      Guess what folks.... nobody really has a grasp on the extent of these economic issues. The only real question to ask is this: where is the current risk/reward worse? Is it in being net long and seeing a serious and rapid decline in asset valuations OR in being net short/in cash and seeing a rapid increase in asset valuations? What's been happening when the headlines are positive and how about when negative?

      If you choose to examine this on your own, you'll find out the answer on how the market is feeling on a day to day basis. That recovery the other day, in my opinion, should not be fully credited to the 75bp cut but instead to market participants who realized that there was no legitimate reason, at that point in time, for such a rapid and significant market decline. Therefore they went long ASAP to punish the sellers for their overreaction. Don't be fooled into thinking those 75bp are going to change anything significant in the short term.

      A wound is still a wound if you bandage it up. Time and internal healing processes are the only things that can mend it - neither of which have occurred as of yet.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 16:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blood on the Street Means Opportunity
      Amen Clorox.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 16:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blood on the Street Means Opportunity
      I'll call you what you are, sourpuss. Mathematically and logically speaking, moments of extreme stress in the financial system are accompanied by weakness in the financial markets (mainly stocks). Using some common sense developed over the few years I've been alive on this wonderful and blessed ball of dirt, I figured if I've been in cash since July and chose to get in the market tomorrow, I've saved myself quite a bit of losses. What do you think?

      No need for examples from the past (although they're there any time we've had financial crises) when it's truly a matter of simple mathematics.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 16:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Prior Market Crashes
      Intriguing for sure but I tend to agree with Vicc on this (with the exception of the last line "fear mongering"). Somebody should take their judge's black robe off and relax, Vicc. I bet there have been plenty of other times when the price fluctuated as such in the past.

      However, I'm a bit perturbed by how quickly people have been willing to put their heads in the sand with the negative news and shout "recovery" "recovery" from the rooftops at the first sign of positive news. I believe even with the oversold indications that we are far from done on this particular market decline. Crash? Who knows - nobody can predict. I'd put the odds of a crash above those of a year-end positive return for the S&P though.
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    • Wed Jan 9th 12:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Circuit City Calls
      User137777
      I've noticed something interesting on this site. If someone has something negative to say but doesn't have any evidence to support it, they remain anonymous. Yet all the others who have pointed out actual flaws and not attempted a shameless and baseless personal attack attached their site ID. Intriguing, no?

      I haven't even picked up the Calls yet, and didn't plan to until after publication. You may be correct on the operating leases, and if so, point well taken. However next time you should leave personal attacks on a stranger out of your argument as it detracts from your credibility.

      It would seem as if the consensus is that the risk outweighs the potential reward. I thank everyone who has published comments up to this point and any after. I've noted your points and will ensure to provide a more thorough evaluation in my next article. I do hope you all will read and critique the next one as well.

      Dave
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    • Wed Jan 9th 10:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Circuit City Calls
      SmartGuyStocks

      I appreciate the comment. You're 100% right. Thank you for clarifying for folks who may not have gathered the risk level (mainly since I failed to mention it). Sometimes I forget people trade based off of other's info and not their own research. In terms of praying, I doubt God participates in the financial markets. From what I gather, our money is no good up there haha. Patriots all the way baby!
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    • Wed Jan 9th 10:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Circuit City Calls
      If this spec position were to represent a larger portion of my portfolio or I were more confident in the company I would agree 100% that the equity would be a better play. The risk of bankruptcy is fairly large (as I mention in the article). However, the purpose of using options in this particular situation are as follows:

      1- I have zero faith in the company's current management. The company is poorly run, their stores are dirty, their customer service is miserable, and their employees tell you to spend your money at Best Buy (BBY) (haha true story). Even with all of this their sales have not plummeted (though they are falling). In my opinion the company would become profitable in the hands of different management. If you look at the current holders (as of the last filing date on Bloomberg) you'll see some smart money in the top ten with significant positions. I'm of the belief that something is going to change soon (CC gets taken private or acquired).

      2-Calls provide me with an outlet to leverage my idea. If I were to hold the equity I would need to invest over 10x the capital to control the same amount of shares. YES, I understand that options expire worthless and equities retain some value. However, in my estimation this company is headed to one of two places: bankruptcy or corporate action. I don't foresee a middle ground. If CC does go bankrupt the equity loss will be so large (and immediate) that the value derived from holding the equity versus the option will be minor. If CC sees some corporate action, the option may produce a ROI of >2x+ that of the equity holding.

      In terms of time frame BillB, you have a solid point. 5 1/2 months is not much time. Perhaps I'll extend the Calls to JAN 09. Within the next 12 months I expect something significant will occur.
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    • Wed Jan 9th 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Circuit City Calls
      ULM
      I couldn't agree with you more. For my money, that's where the risk/reward comes in. I've found that by investing in Calls for this type of speculative play one is able to make a solid return if they're right and lose a minor amount (relative to an equity stake) if they're wrong.
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    • Wed Jan 9th 09:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Circuit City Calls
      Something I forgot to include is that my position will be minor relative to my portfolio. This is a high risk trade but one in which I believe the risk/reward makes sense.
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    • Mon Jan 7th 22:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seeking Alpha in 2008 With ProShares' UltraShort S&P500 ETF
      My movie reference is wrong.... it should be "Passenger 57", not "Blade"
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