DougM's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/133860/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175749-krugman-the-deficit-doesn-t-matter?source=feed#comment-783743 783743 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:48:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175786-december-effect-bodes-well-for-hedge-funds-equities?source=feed#comment-783740 783740 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:43:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175417-weve-survived-worse-markets-and-economies-before-the-1970s?source=feed#comment-778743 778743
I do believe that in many ways things are worse now; the entitlement bombs, long known about, are going off, and world-wide population pressures are going to strain natural resources including oil in ways that mere politically-motivated shortages won't. Unlike a lot of other developed countries, though, the US has ample natural resources to meet its own needs, and lacks only the political will to use them. Also unlike many others, our demographic picture is better because of our long-standing acceptance of immigrants. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are similarly well-situated for what's coming, but are, frankly, better led than we are. We may have to endure another period like the 1970s before we shake off the death-grip of the current political structure.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 16:43:39 -0500
I do believe that in many ways things are worse now; the entitlement bombs, long known about, are going off, and world-wide population pressures are going to strain natural resources including oil in ways that mere politically-motivated shortages won't. Unlike a lot of other developed countries, though, the US has ample natural resources to meet its own needs, and lacks only the political will to use them. Also unlike many others, our demographic picture is better because of our long-standing acceptance of immigrants. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are similarly well-situated for what's coming, but are, frankly, better led than we are. We may have to endure another period like the 1970s before we shake off the death-grip of the current political structure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175238-2-unfortunate-possible-consequences-of-deficit-hysteria?source=feed#comment-778089 778089 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:40:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175264-the-case-for-depression-part-4-dollar-collapse?source=feed#comment-778073 778073
Yep, but there's a world market for 'em, and we'll end up paying the world market price as consumers, since producers have the option of sending production abroad should prices be insufficient here. The only good news is, at least price rises there don't add to the current accounts deficit.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:09:22 -0500
Yep, but there's a world market for 'em, and we'll end up paying the world market price as consumers, since producers have the option of sending production abroad should prices be insufficient here. The only good news is, at least price rises there don't add to the current accounts deficit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174421-as-gross-says-the-fed-provides-return-free-risk?source=feed#comment-768363 768363 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:47:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151327-goldman-sachs-still-arrogant-and-unrepentant?source=feed#comment-724648 724648
On Jul 26 12:24 PM Chemist29 wrote:

> if you think goldman makes too much money for its shareholders, buy the stock.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:06:31 -0400
On Jul 26 12:24 PM Chemist29 wrote:

> if you think goldman makes too much money for its shareholders, buy the stock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158313-palladium-the-new-platinum?source=feed#comment-647400 647400 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:40:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156756-does-crude-s-price-reflect-reality?source=feed#comment-634727 634727 Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:49:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138885-what-were-the-people-of-california-thinking?source=feed#comment-512936 512936 ]]> Thu, 21 May 2009 11:33:22 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138122-social-security-at-the-crossroad?source=feed#comment-508669 508669 Mon, 18 May 2009 15:33:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134542-social-security-bankrupt-system-will-impact-markets-sooner-than-expected?source=feed#comment-486192 486192
Those with portable skills and the will to do so will move out of the country. Others such as professional people will work fewer hours, perhaps working only 6 months of the year or less, rather than work an additional 12 months for minimal net take-home pay. Those with the means to do so and of the right age will retire early, lowering their income (and not producing anything anymore) and consuming their savings while benefiting from programs like free healthcare. Small businesses will be hurt the worst, they'll presumably have to pass on the costs in higher prices for goods and services, or by paying lower wages to fewer workers, or both. Those willing to risk punishment may begin to form an underground economy. Finally and worst of all, future generations will see that there is little to be gained economically by (say) spending years in school training to be a physician, versus taking their high-school education and going immediately into a government job such as firefighting where the pay's almost as good and much of the compensation flows in the form of generous early-retirement benefits.
]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 17:45:21 -0400
Those with portable skills and the will to do so will move out of the country. Others such as professional people will work fewer hours, perhaps working only 6 months of the year or less, rather than work an additional 12 months for minimal net take-home pay. Those with the means to do so and of the right age will retire early, lowering their income (and not producing anything anymore) and consuming their savings while benefiting from programs like free healthcare. Small businesses will be hurt the worst, they'll presumably have to pass on the costs in higher prices for goods and services, or by paying lower wages to fewer workers, or both. Those willing to risk punishment may begin to form an underground economy. Finally and worst of all, future generations will see that there is little to be gained economically by (say) spending years in school training to be a physician, versus taking their high-school education and going immediately into a government job such as firefighting where the pay's almost as good and much of the compensation flows in the form of generous early-retirement benefits.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132553-why-mankiw-is-wrong-about-negative-interest-rates?source=feed#comment-475043 475043 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:40:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131407-oil-futures-money-for-the-taking?source=feed#comment-467032 467032 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:50:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131407-oil-futures-money-for-the-taking?source=feed#comment-467024 467024 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:43:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130591-who-should-be-taxed?source=feed#comment-461588 461588
www.taxfoundation.org/...

It doesn't split out the upper 0.1%, but I have these figures from a 2005 article in the NYT:

Returns: 145,000
Income split: $1.2 million
Average income: $3 million
Total income: $435 billion

Putting it all together and rounding the numbers a bit:

Lowest 50%: $1 trillion
50-75%: $1.5 trillion
75-90%: $1.5 trillion
90-95%: $1 trillion
95-99%: $1 trillion
99-99.9%: $1 trillion
Top 0.1%: $0.5 trillion

2/3 of the income available to be taxed is in the range from 75%-99.9%, i.e. from $62k to $1.2m. Taxing the upper 0.1% at a 90% rate won't generate as much money as raising taxes on the larger group to, say, 50%.

Leaving aside the question of whether taking more of the money earned by the 0.1% is a good idea as a matter of "justice", the fact remains that if we don't reign in government spending but still want to close the budget deficits, through income taxation alone, this upper-middle group will have to feel the pain. Once Clinton-era rates are back in effect, what then? This group, which is also a source of a lot of political support, probably can't be squeezed much harder before it makes its displeasure known politically.]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 11:45:07 -0400
www.taxfoundation.org/...

It doesn't split out the upper 0.1%, but I have these figures from a 2005 article in the NYT:

Returns: 145,000
Income split: $1.2 million
Average income: $3 million
Total income: $435 billion

Putting it all together and rounding the numbers a bit:

Lowest 50%: $1 trillion
50-75%: $1.5 trillion
75-90%: $1.5 trillion
90-95%: $1 trillion
95-99%: $1 trillion
99-99.9%: $1 trillion
Top 0.1%: $0.5 trillion

2/3 of the income available to be taxed is in the range from 75%-99.9%, i.e. from $62k to $1.2m. Taxing the upper 0.1% at a 90% rate won't generate as much money as raising taxes on the larger group to, say, 50%.

Leaving aside the question of whether taking more of the money earned by the 0.1% is a good idea as a matter of "justice", the fact remains that if we don't reign in government spending but still want to close the budget deficits, through income taxation alone, this upper-middle group will have to feel the pain. Once Clinton-era rates are back in effect, what then? This group, which is also a source of a lot of political support, probably can't be squeezed much harder before it makes its displeasure known politically.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130591-who-should-be-taxed?source=feed#comment-461179 461179
More importantly, it won't work because there just isn't enough total income available in the ranks of the super-rich. Their incomes are high, but their numbers are small. For similar reasons, taxing the poor won't work - their numbers are large, but their incomes small. Income taxation will fall where it always does, on the "working rich", professionals that make good incomes but not ball-player level incomes, who don't make enough to just stop working, and who can't restructure their income in some way so as to avoid the taxes. Income taxes always fall on this group because, as Willie Sutton said, "that's where the money is".

My bet is that once the government's squeezed as much as it can from these people, we'll end up with a VAT, or try to square the books via taxes on forms of consumption the government wants to discourage. You can already see the example of this with the high taxes on cigarettes, alchohol, etc. In the future, carbon taxes, etc. JMHO.]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 02:20:39 -0400
More importantly, it won't work because there just isn't enough total income available in the ranks of the super-rich. Their incomes are high, but their numbers are small. For similar reasons, taxing the poor won't work - their numbers are large, but their incomes small. Income taxation will fall where it always does, on the "working rich", professionals that make good incomes but not ball-player level incomes, who don't make enough to just stop working, and who can't restructure their income in some way so as to avoid the taxes. Income taxes always fall on this group because, as Willie Sutton said, "that's where the money is".

My bet is that once the government's squeezed as much as it can from these people, we'll end up with a VAT, or try to square the books via taxes on forms of consumption the government wants to discourage. You can already see the example of this with the high taxes on cigarettes, alchohol, etc. In the future, carbon taxes, etc. JMHO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130507-why-i-think-jeremy-siegel-s-argument-is-flawed?source=feed#comment-460675 460675 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 14:01:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130492-taxpayers-vs-investors-the-imminent-disinformation-schism?source=feed#comment-460203 460203 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 01:34:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129524-obama-wants-a-better-plan-here-s-one-bite-the-bullet?source=feed#comment-452457 452457 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:32:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127435-the-un-china-want-to-ditch-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-437503 437503 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 21:37:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127372-geithner-s-doomed-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-436995 436995 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:27:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126805-as-mortgage-rates-plunge-30-year-fixed-rate-of-3-5-seems-likely?source=feed#comment-432236 432236 Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:33:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117617-the-shedlock-schiff-affair-a-chronicle?source=feed#comment-371025 371025 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:27:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117656-buy-american-goodbye-global-friends?source=feed#comment-371012 371012 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:19:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116115-let-s-just-say-it-print-more-money?source=feed#comment-364136 364136 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:04:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114143-the-fed-s-bubble-trouble?source=feed#comment-352829 352829 Sun, 11 Jan 2009 21:19:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113832-another-dr-doom-peter-schiff?source=feed#comment-349680 349680 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:00:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113614-new-mortgage-bankruptcy-bill-does-not-address-real-problem?source=feed#comment-348553 348553 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:46:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113616-government-s-panicked-response-to-this-economic-crisis?source=feed#comment-348526 348526 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:28:30 -0500