DougM

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dave, love your column. Some possibilities re. the utilities decline:
1. Possible repeal of dividend tax rate under new president.
2. If long interest rates rise, bond-like equities could go lower.
3. Expensive renewable mandates - paid for by who?
4. Expensive grid upgrades needed - paid for by who?
And of course as you know
5. In a downtrend since last year - trend continues until it doesn't.
6. Just more stocks in the sell basket.

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

FWIW I think you're right, but as we've seen this year, there are limits to how far prices can rise before they choke off the very economic expansion that fuels the boom in the first place. The market needs to find a balance between continued world-wide GDP growth and rising commodity prices. Ultimately, it will have to find substitutes for the most constrained resources or the growth simply can't continue.

Commodities Gone Wild

How is it that the same bears that were trotting out charts of parabolic house prices during that bubble are apparently blind to the exact same thing happening in an asset class they like (commodities generally, gold particularly)?