Dan Weiss

http://www.vestopia.com/danw
Total Rating:
+3 / 0

63 Comments

    • Thu Oct 9th 17:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Viropharma, Lev Pharmaceuticals: An Attractive Biotech Pair
      Ive been asked via email about what my thinking is on odds of each scenario and I would put #1 at a bit higher than 95% with about a 3-4% chance of scenario #2 and a minimal chance at #3. In order for the deal to be broken up it would require a class 2 resubmission which has an extremely low chance of occurring especially considering the number of successful studies Lev has completed, the unanimously positive review from the advisory panel and that the company is already working on post-approval continued studies.

      Looking forward, I would expect acute approval in early 2009 and then continued studies on whether this could potentially be used for heart attacks thereafter. Again, this is a first mover advantage for Lev and orphan drug status is also a likely outcome thus minimizing potential competion for Lev/Viropharma going forward.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 21:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Allied Defense Group: Turnaround Progress
      Pirate distributed the shares to its hedge fund holders earlier this year which is one of the primary reasons for the decline a couple of months ago.
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    • Thu Jul 31st 23:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Stocks I Am Watching
      Im not sure what you are referring to (lets take a look at each company):
      1) ADG- $5.62 (was $5.01) -- this is a very high confidence name that I would point out is the only 1 of the 5 which was brought into the portfolio. The company has record backlog, strong orders and has undergone a restructuring plan which should allow some of that backlog to hit both the top and bottom line of the company.
      2) L.S. Starrett- $22.62 (was $16.29) -- obviously, this stock has been a winner.
      3) First Marblehead- $2.51 (was $12.66)- this stock has obviously been under distress. I never took a position in the company as I was waiting for improvements in the asset backed market and I wanted to see evidence of just 1 securitization which did not occur.
      4) AEHR- $4.79 but reached $11.20 (was $5.75)-- This stock was a near double for those who would have bought the stock as clearly the same attractive valuation characteristics which were present at $5.75 were not as attractive at the high levels which it reached. I also pointed out in the article the risk of potential macro headwinds if economic activity were to deteriorate.
      5) NINE- $2.10 (was 3.42)- This one has been disappointing as the company has an enterprise value of -$40 million. That being said I have no confidence in the management team of this company as the actions they have recently made (minimizing reporting) are not shareholder friendly.
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    • Mon Jul 28th 05:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Countering Greenberg's Report on Hanesbrands
      All you need to do is look at the cash flows of the firm. They have the cash flows to both pay down debt over time and to cut costs through movement of facilities overseas and by better managing the workforce. I will say the one variable that is difficult to control longer-term is cotton (although they do hedge in the short term) so if you are of the opinion that cotton is underpriced (which I am not) then they may have some increased cost on that front.
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    • Tue Jul 22nd 22:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10 Notes on the Current Market Fracas
      Exactly Zeonman. This is how John Templeton made his living.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 17:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why We’re Short Hanesbrands
      I would argue that the analysis made by Greenberg is so short-term oriented that is nearly worthless for long-term investors except to say that these are the things that investors need to look at going forward to see if some of the trends in inventory and other areas continue in future quarterly and annual reports.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 13:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Highbury Financial: A Forgotten Money Manager
      I am happy to see that someone else has a position in this stock out there as it is one of the largest positions in the Vestopia portfolio which I manage. I have been a long-term shareholder of Highbury and love the potential of this company for long-term investors. A couple of other important considerations are the two of the highest asset managers within the Aston umbrella are more defensive in nature and have thus significantly improved their long-term track record and Morningstar ratings over the past several months. Institutions will typically use a 5-year track record for entering and exiting managers and the turnaround in performance is just beginning to show signs of life with increases in assets. While I agree that the warrants could be an overhang for the stock I do think that with an acceleration in AUM growth (assuming better market conditions) and the continued launch of very creative new funds and ETFs that the stock could eventually pass $5 even within the 20 month period. I have spoken with Richard Foote on a number of occassions and he has told me that they do not anticipate buying back any warrants at this time but it is very possible that additional cash could be used to buy back the stock.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 13:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Acquisition Looks Good but More Clarity Needed
      I completely agree kahona. I am not sure what the motivation was to get this deal done earlier especially with the very high likelihood of approval on the prophylaxis side. If for some reason Lev is not able to get prophylaxis approval then Viropharma can and likely will exit the deal thus there seems to be little advantage to having this deal done now as they likely (in my opinion) could have received more for the company later. That being said, what is done is done so shareholders will need to live with these terms although Lev shareholders can reject the deal once it comes up to a vote (although this will be a tough hill to conquer).

      I have been in contact multiple times with Lev over the past several months and everything sounds as if they will get approval for prophylaxis considering the unanimous Advisory Panel recommendation, constant dialogue with the FDA and strong clinical study results. It is also very possible that Lev gets an approval earlier than the PDUFA date for prophylaxis.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 10:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Acquisition Looks Good but More Clarity Needed
      My focus is on the reasons behind why the merger could be terminated.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 15th 21:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Compelling Value in Highbury Financial
      Highbury is continuing to deliver with a decent AUM growth for the second quarter (which will be reported in a couple of weeks) especially considering the difficult market environment and strong performance out of many of the underlying mutual funds. The balance sheet is very attractive with no LTD and plenty of cash while operating cash flows and earnings continue to flow through.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 15th 13:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Pharmaceutical: Bullish, Despite Delayed FDA Decision
      See news today. Looks like company is to be acquired by Viropharma for a 40% premium (with additional potential kickers)
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 19:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Countering Greenberg's Report on Hanesbrands
      They have done nothing to make me not believe in their growth story going forward as thus far they have done exactly what they have said they would. That being said I am always cautious on taking management words for granted but at current valuations and based on prior actions the stock looks extremely attractive.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 19:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Pharmaceutical: Bullish, Despite Delayed FDA Decision
      The stock has had a nice rebound doubling from its lows just a few months ago and returning to prior levels. I have been in constant contact with the company and it looks as if prophylaxis approval could come as early as late summer with acute approval following in the fall. More info on my blog at Vestopia.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 16:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment
      So far so good on all three of these short ideas. My target on shares of TRMP is 0 while I anticipate that SPF will flirt with bankruptcy (I am not yet going to make the call that they will actually be forced into reorganization as this is highly dependent on when the housing market improves). As for UA, my target based on my own valuation models (I think analyst expectations are still too high) would put the stock in the mid to high teens.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 6th 11:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lumber Liquidators Solid as Hardwood While Housing is Weak
      The company will be presenting at a Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tuesday morning. It will be interesting to see if the company has anything interesting to say at this meeting.
      View article »
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