Dan Weiss

http://www.vestopia.com/danw
Total Rating:
+3 / 0

63 Comments

    • Sat Mar 29th 21:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Don't Own Commodities
      I am of the opinion that growth in China, India, Russia and many of these other countries is not going to be anywhere close to the 10-15% that we have experienced in the past five years. Keep in mind that China is still a communist country and they are actively looking to decrease the growth rate in their country to curb inflation. Countries do not have GDP growth in the double digits for multiple years in a row and significant speedbumps and potentially a recession is very likely in the country in the not too distant future
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    • Thu Mar 27th 09:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Don't Own Commodities
      and that the prices of these commodities hold up for those who are long. It is possible that certain commodities (maybe gold) hold up but I dont see prices of oil, wheat, corn, cotton, etc. holding up long term. In the short term, anything can happen just look at the tech and telecom names of the late 90s or the housing stocks in the middle part of this decade.

      vestopia.com/danw
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    • Thu Mar 27th 09:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Don't Own Commodities
      Thanks everyone for their responses. I should put in context that the article as published on Vestopia is not fully about commodities (it was shortened somewhat on this site). Id like to ask everyone if they really think that the normalized level of oil prices is going to be at $105 per barrel, for gold at just shy of $1,000, etc... I could be wrong but at these price levels I am finding much better opportunities in other sectors of the market which are also experiencing growth which I see as more sustainable. Im hoping for everyone's sake that both I am right in my own picks in areas such as education software, environmental consulting, asset management, consumer staples, health care (ex-HMO and insurers)
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    • Wed Mar 26th 22:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Don't Own Commodities
      I also remember that just 9 short years ago everyone in the world said that we had an oversupply (in fact an endless supply was quoted by such sources as the Economist) of oil and other commodities and we saw oil prices crater to $10, gold at $250, etc.. So the question is are we really in a secular bull market for commodities or is this yet another case where so much money is chasing a sector that is forcing prices artificially high?

      vestopia.com/danw
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    • Mon Mar 24th 09:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Pharmaceutical: Bullish, Despite Delayed FDA Decision
      It looks like at this point that Lev will gain approval for the prophylactic treatment of HAE at some point later this year while the non-prophylactic treatment is still a race between multiple companies with Lev being slightly ahead. The potential revenue stream for the company is very significant for the company and well above the current capitalization of the company.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 20:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Perini Demonstrates Some Commercial Construction is Still Booming
      I actually exited the position when I first heard of the Cosmopolitan issue about 3 days ago (see my post at vestopia.com). I still like the company but see major headwinds in the short term due to the issues at Cosmopolitan which dont look like will be cleared up in the short term. Long term, I think the stock is attractive but Im expecting some continued weakness in the short term.
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    • Tue Mar 18th 21:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the Agriculture Boom Last?
      I agree that it looks unlikely to change in the short to even intermediate term although I think it would be a positive for the overall economy (non-commodity) if it were to be changed.
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    • Tue Mar 18th 21:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Pharmaceutical: Bullish, Despite Delayed FDA Decision
      Thats what I thought as well but the FDA is being extra cautious with approvals of just about any treatments these days. I continue to expect approval of Cinryze it just may not happen until a bit later in the year. Today's news was overall very positive with an additional positive Phase 3 study result released late in the day.
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    • Sun Feb 10th 12:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When it Comes to Casino Stocks, Bigger is Better
      Colorado casinos will be interesting to follow as several lawmakers are considering raising the maximum bets (they currently sit at just $5) and potentially allowing 24-hour gaming in order to raise more revenue for schools. If expanded gaming laws are allowed it could be of huge benefit to these companies.

      vestopia.com
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    • Fri Feb 8th 20:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lev Pharmaceutical: Bullish, Despite Delayed FDA Decision
      Hi Jon
      I appreciate your comments. I agree that the call could have been managed much more professionally, however, I think the management team was genuinely surprised by the FDA's decision to delay approval. My take is that they were not prepared to answer ?s from the audience but that they will likely become more forthcoming in coming days with their presentations at several conferences.

      I am impressed with the product and dont see any reason why the FDA would not approve it once Lev answers the questions. I believe this is a case of an overcautious FDA wanting to cross their t's and dot their i's.

      vestopia.com
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    • Thu Feb 7th 22:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Stocks I Am Watching
      Anything is possible Twinnkie but they will have to deliver nearly perfect to get the stock to that price (that is more than a triple from current prices).
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      “A Whiff of Panic...”
      Overall, you have made an interesting analysis. However, what the Fed is giving consumers is a sense that they will do what is needed to improve confidence. The subprime and CDO issues are serious issues but the reasons that consumers have cut back significantly in recent weeks is primarily due to a lack of confidence in future economic activity along with growing concerns about job safety. The Fed cut will likely act to improve overall confidence that the Federal Reserve will do what is needed to lower the odds of a long recession and will lower the cost of borrowing not only for consumers (I looked today and a 30 year mortgage can be had for 5 3/8% with no points for credit-worthy borrowers) but for businesses as well. The danger of the Fed is very active is that the Fed cuts too much and we either have inflationary pressures or we have a repeat of 03-06 and have a bunch of liquidity floating around and we once again have inflated asset prices in certain parts of the market (i.e. housing, emerging markets, commodities). To me I think the Fed made the correct move at this point of the cycle I would rather risk a small amount of inflation for an increased likelihood of having a much milder slowdown.
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    • Sun Jan 13th 12:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Stocks with Excellent Growth on Sale
      I am also a fan of Gigamedia within my portfolio and would point they have almost no exposure to the U.S. market as the game business is almost exclusively in Europe and Asia.
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    • Mon Dec 31st 17:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My 2008 Predictions for the GICS Sectors
      The GICS sectors are another way of breaking out the holdings of a portfolio into 10 defined sectors as was mentioned in the last post. The sectors are far from perfect as consumer discretionary as an example could include your typical retailer which is a more cyclical stock along with for-profit education stocks which may actually be a more counter-cyclical way to look at the market.
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    • Thu Dec 27th 21:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      8 Predictions for 2008
      I appreciate everyone's comments in regards to my predictions for 2008. As everyone knows, these are simply predictions in my many years of experience when everyone thinks the same (i.e. there will be a death spiral in financials, international stocks will outperform forever, etc.) the opposite is very likely to happen. Financials have taken it on the chin this year and in my opinion are already pricing in a large amount of bad news which in all honesty will likely happen in the first quarter of 2008. My expectation is that with a proactive Fed injecting money into the system as well as significant foreign investment financials will be a leading sector over the next year. I would say that the most uncertain of these predictions in my opinion is a housing bottom in the middle of the year but I am standing by this prediction. Keep in mind that the prediction is only stating that the housing market will stabilize not that it will all of a sudden completely reverse course and turn higher.
      View article »
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