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kathem
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Everyone’s economic and life situation is unique, and I keep that in mind when providing conservative precious metals investment advice. I believe that personalized service is essential when matching clients with the right products whether there looking for Profit, Privacy or Protection it all... More
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Scottsdale Bullion & Coin
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Gold Bull
  • Gold Prediction?
    Begin forwarded message:
    From: Kathem Martin <kmartin@sbcgold.com>

    Subject: Gold Price:

    Date: July 9, 2013 5:21:04 PM MST

    To: J. Koch

    Hi Jerry,

    I hope you and the Mrs. had a relaxing holiday weekend as I did with my fam, I just wanted to give you a quick heads up on what is currently developing and what some of the top industry analysts are saying; in that they anticipate a 10% correction/increase in Gold over the next 6 weeks. Just FYI. as of this am.

    I put all of this together for you over the last few hrs, so if you could please take the time to review all that I have below including the links. This should help give you a very strong gage on the direction that we're going quickly and hopefully clear up the questions you had pertaining to the large investment I have been advising on waiting on moving. Let me know your thoughts and or any further questions.

    Recent recap:

    Large mining companies over the last 21/2 weeks have laid off an avg. of 10% of there work force due to production/mining costs being $1200 an ounce @ there approx break even point. If this continues (I think it will for a while due to rising extraction costs, i.e.Oil etc.) it will trigger even more of a supply crunch due to the physical demand being on fire currently, which will in turn all but guarantee a rise in premiums for sure. https://businessincanada.com/2013/06/24/barrick-gold-announces-job-cuts-at-toronto-headquarters/ As history shows and often repeats, when the mining becomes tight, that is the time to make your entry move on the physical side. Econ 101 - Supply & Demand. Much more powerful than just melt.

    Another big one to watch is what is happening in China with there new inflation numbers that just came out (last night) and have increased substantially above analysts predictions. With China being the largest purchaser in physical gold next to India this again is a big trigger point on the supply and demand side of the market that moves the lesser populated product premiums up at a much faster rate, getting you in the red quicker. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23238024

    China's demand for gold jumped 20% to 294 tones in the first quarter of 2013, while global gold demand overall slid 13% thanks to the dramatic rotation of demand from paper to physical. Chinese demand in gold bars and coins grew to 109.5 tones - more than double the five-year quarterly average of 43.8 tones.Central banks added 109.2 tones of gold to their reserves in Q1 2013, the ninth consecutive quarter of net purchases. But it was the Q1 ETF outflows of 176.9 tones, equating to a 7% decline in total gold ETF holdings that obscured the strong rise in investment for gold bars and coins at the retail level. In the face of the huge 'paper' gold ETF outflows, 'physical' gold demand surged to its highest in 18 months… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-demand-one-chart-physical-vs-etf

    In all honesty, It may be the time to think about pulling the trigger and getting in. I'm not going to say that we DID or DID NOT hit the "bottom" but based on the homework and charts I did yesterday and today we seem to be surely flirting with it if we have not already hit. In the Last couple weeks (June 27th) we quickly touched below $1200 on the spot and bounced dramatically from there now up 3.64% (as you can see below) with some good stabilization and strength happening currently over the last several trading sessions.

    Something additional to keep in mind, the last time we had a dip like this was just after the 07'-08' crash where the "spot price" in Jan of 08' corrected to $644.60 per ounce then rocketed up to $1002.50 per ounce by March 10th then again proceeding with some short term ebbs & flows up to $1884.20 within the next 3 years giving investors a 193% ROI. Point being, one can not argue that we are in worse economic shape than what we were in then and the charts have lined up almost identically. History repeats itself just like the psychology side of the markets do and this seems to be lining up the same way it did then with the "blitz" on the physical market that we are experiencing currently and potentially precluding to the same take off in prices we had then. Another quite similar occurrence happened in the mid 70's but I have not done all the homework on that so I wont go in depth, but needless to say the scenario was very similar just on a larger % scale."Rather be early to the party instead of late".

    I would advise strongly on getting in pretty quick if we hold above $1240 spot (support level to up side with Bullish break out at $1269) by weeks end. (currently about $1250) [On the other hand], if we pull back to $1228 (bearish support) by weeks end, I would hold off for another week so I can watch stability support and reassess short term market movement.

    Whenever you decide to get in, I would strongly advise and/or suggest curtailing your thought process down to your focus being on products with limited supply to position ones self for greater returns on investment when this thing starts it's aggressive upward move. This is the part where the physical market shows it's power over the ETF (Wall Street paper bet) side of the metals market as it did in 2008. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100874460

    I hope all of this helps, this is the best factual advice I currently can give you. This may be the time Jerry... K.

    K. Martin

    Managing Broker

    IRA/401k Specialist

    Direct: (480) 275-6780

    Mobile: (480) 388-2758

    kmartin@sbcgold.com

    A little about me:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncTdSf2YDfE

    Jul 10 3:36 PM | Link | Comment!
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